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Scientists have reportedly proved that bumblebees cannot fly because of their awful aerodynamics (the bees, not the experts). Fortunately, the insects just carry on regardless. Sometimes it feels the same way with Japan’s economy. … The bumblebee …
22nd February 2010
Japan should be able to avoid the sort of crisis that has hit Greece so hard. Government debt may be even larger in Japan, but the country is in a much stronger position in almost every other respect. … Is Japan the next …
The Bank of Japan meeting which concluded today was the non-event that most (ourselves included) had anticipated. Governor Shirakawa reiterated the Policy Board’s reluctance to adopt a more formal inflation target or to increase outright purchases of …
18th February 2010
The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board meeting, which concludes on Thursday, is likely to be a non-event. There is still a compelling case for further monetary stimulus and today’s parliamentary testimonies are a timely reminder of the tensions on this point …
16th February 2010
Japan recorded strong, broad-based growth in the final quarter of last year, laying a solid foundation for 2010. We continue to expect the strength of the recovery to surprise the markets for a few quarters more as pent-up investment spending kicks in. … …
15th February 2010
Recent market moves have supported our relatively positive views on the outlook both for Japanese equities and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). … Still positive on stocks and …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer Confidence (Jan.) …
12th February 2010
The huge amount of spare capacity left by the recession, and other headwinds, means that any pick-up in investment spending in Japan is unlikely to be spectacular. But this does not mean that investment will fail to recover at all. We expect both business …
10th February 2010
The Cabinet Office has announced a change in the seasonal adjustments that might reduce the GDP growth figure reported for the fourth quarter of 2009 (data due next Monday). However, any impact is likely to be small - perhaps a few tenths of a percentage …
8th February 2010
The renewed weakness of bank lending is largely due to lower demand for credit rather than a lack of supply. This is not all bad news – emergency bank borrowing by firms in distress is probably falling and other sources of finance are recovering, although …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EWS & Bank Lending (Jan.) …
Our analysis suggests that Japan’s GDP grew by around 1.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year. Consensus forecasts are also coming in fairly strong, but our forecast is still top of the range. … Q4 GDP to beat …
Our analysis suggests that Japan’s GDP grew by around 1.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (preliminary official data will be released on 15th February). This would be roughly equivalent to 6.0% at an annualised rate, faster even than the 5.7% …
4th February 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Labour Cash Earnings (Dec.) …
2nd February 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Activity strong but deflation fears grow …
1st February 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … External Trade (Dec.) …
27th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Small Business Confidence (Jan.) …
26th January 2010
The Bank of Japan failed to make any new policy announcements today, disappointing some in the markets (ourselves included) who had hoped for at least a hint of further easing. However, the warning over the country’s sovereign credit rating from S&P …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A better week in prospect for Japanese data …
25th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More stimulus coming soon …
22nd January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer Confidence (Dec.) …
19th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What difference will Kan make? …
18th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Machinery Orders (Nov.) …
14th January 2010
Despite the relative inactivity of the central bank, Japan’s broad monetary aggregates are picking up. The year-on-year decline in bank lending in December is probably not as worrying as it looks either. However, the survey evidence suggests that …
12th January 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EWS & Bank Lending (Dec.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bright outlook for 2010 …
11th January 2010
We are upgrading our forecast for Japanese GDP growth in 2010 from 3.0% to 3.5%. This is well above the latest published consensus forecast of around 1.5%, as well as the projections from the likes of the IMF (1.7%) and the OECD (1.8%). However, having …
5th January 2010
The data released over the holiday period were mostly upbeat, with the early stabilisation in the labour market supporting consumer spending and external demand continuing to recover. The announcement of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus at the …
The financial markets seem confident that the West can avoid the prolonged period of economic stagnation and price deflation that took hold of Japan in the 1990s. Looking back again at the Japanese experience, we are not so sure. … A fresh look at the …
22nd December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Small Business Confidence (Dec.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … External Trade (Nov.) …
21st December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery restrained, but intact …
Despite the interest and speculation today’s announcement has generated, the Bank of Japan’s change to its language on price stability is trivial and will have no implications for monetary policy. … Bank of Japan raises inflation sights, …
18th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still more that could be done …
17th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tankan (Dec.) …
14th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the investment cycle bottomed out? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Consumer Confidence (Nov.) …
11th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … GDP (Q3, Revised) …
9th December 2009
The government’s scope for manoeuvre on fiscal policy is obviously limited given Japan’s huge public debt, but the additional stimulus announced today was probably the best that could be expected. … Fiscal stimulus small but perfectly …
8th December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Perceptions trump reality on the yen …
7th December 2009
The slump in business spending in Q3 revealed in today’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) survey is partly old news, but the quarterly profile points to a substantial downward revision to the GDP data for the quarter. We have cut our Q3 GDP estimate to +0.3% …
3rd December 2009
The markets are right to be underwhelmed by the Bank of Japan’s announcement of a fresh injection of liquidity. An even longer period of ultra-loose monetary policy will maintain the downward pressure on government bond yields, but will have little impact …
1st December 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Output, PMI, Pay & Housing Starts (Oct./Nov.) …
30th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s happening in Japan’s labour market? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … CPI, Unemployment and Spending (Oct.) …
27th November 2009
The continued recovery in Japanese exports in October supports our view that GDP growth will not slow as much in the fourth quarter as most seem to expect. However, a sharp fall in imports last month and another decline in the non-manufacturing component …
25th November 2009
Japanese equities may be on the defensive, pressured by policy uncertainty, fiscal worries and deflation fears, but the real economy is continuing to recover strongly. We expect GDP growth to surprise the markets on the upside for a few quarters yet. … …
24th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a threat is deflation to the recovery? …
23rd November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A refreshingly simple exit strategy …
18th November 2009
