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Exports downturn has begun The trade deficit narrowed substantially in November and has further scope to do so again in December. But with the global downturn weighing on external demand next year, further progress towards a more balanced goods trade …
15th December 2022
Strong investment intentions won’t survive coming recession Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is going from strength to strength, the outlook for the manufacturing sector continues to worsen. Meanwhile, machinery orders were …
14th December 2022
Services race ahead while manufacturing struggle Today’s Tankan survey suggests that while the services sector is going from strength to strength, the outlook for the manufacturing sector continues to worsen. The Tankan’s headline index for large …
Consumers shedding virus-related caution and inflation surging to multi-decades highs However, global headwinds are strengthening and import prices are slowing Bank would be very brave to start tightening during a global recession Window for policy …
13th December 2022
We expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target through the middle of next year despite government utility price caps and falling non-food inflation over that period. One reason is that higher food import prices in recent months will …
12th December 2022
Q3 private consumption revised down Q3 real GDP growth was revised up to a contraction of 0.2% q/q from a 0.3% fall in the second estimate released yesterday. However, private consumption was revised down from a 0.3% q/q rise to 0.1% q/q. Rather than …
9th December 2022
Household real incomes to fall in 2023 despite energy subsidies Labour cash earnings increased by a slower 1.8% y/y in October due mostly to a much smaller gain in volatile bonus payments. However, real wage losses have extended for a seventh consecutive …
6th December 2022
Regular earnings growth to maintain quicker pace Labour cash earnings increased by a slower 1.8% in October due mostly to a much smaller gain in volatile bonus payments. Regular earnings held steady due to high inflation and the boost from the reopening, …
5th December 2022
Overview – The global downturn will pull Japan into recession next year. And with government caps on utility bills pushing inflation below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target by mid-2023, the Bank will remain the outlier by keeping monetary policy loose. Key …
China’s EV push a major threat The 2.6% m/m drop in industrial production in October was the second consecutive fall. And while motor vehicle output rebounded from the plunge in September, it was still 16% below its 2019 level. Firms are still pinning …
2nd December 2022
Industrial production looking to end 2022 with a whimper Industrial production saw a steeper contraction in October, while firms’ output forecasts for November and December point to a weak rebound. Industrial production contracted by a sharper 2.6% m/m in …
30th November 2022
Production to rebound in last two months of 2022 Industrial production saw a steeper contraction in October but firms' output forecasts for November and December point to a rebound. Industrial production contracted by a sharper 2.6% m/m in October, …
Labour market tightening on hold, soaring inflation to drag retail sales The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in October and will hover around 2.5% through 2023 due to a looming economic recession. Meanwhile, retail sales values barely grew in October …
29th November 2022
Soaring inflation weighing on retail sales Retail sales values barely grew in October from September and soaring inflation points to risks that growth will remain muted this quarter. Growth in retail sales values slowed sharply from 1.5% m/m to 0.2% m/m …
Halt to labour market tightening as recession looms The unemployment rate stayed unchanged in August and will hover around 2.5% through 2023 due to a looming economic recession. The job-to-applicant ratio rose from 1.34 to 1.35, the highest it has been …
28th November 2022
Foreign visitor numbers jump but services struggle Japan received 461,000 foreign visitors in October (seasonally adjusted), almost double the September figure. This is helping businesses in accommodation and transport, which media reports say are …
25th November 2022
Nationwide inflation to rise further and drag spending growth Headline inflation in the capital set a new three-decade high in November on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and industrial goods inflation. The upshot is that …
Tokyo prices point to further rises in nationwide inflation Headline inflation in the capital set a new three-decade high in November on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and industrial goods inflation. The upshot is that nationwide …
24th November 2022
Inflation to fall alongside November output price index November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating firms’ forecasts. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling due to the rapid rise in …
Downbeat readings reinforce 2023 recession narrative November’s flash PMIs point to further weakness in the manufacturing sector, corroborating other data. At the same time, services activity appears to be struggling under the weight of rising inflation. …
Headline inflation shot up to 3.7% y/y in October , the strongest since December 1990 while inflation excluding fresh food and energy rose from 1.8% to 2.5%. Although this puts inflation well above the Bank of Japan’s target, the case for tightening is …
21st November 2022
Media blaming weak yen and virus for Q3 GDP fall The economy shrank by 0.3% q/q in Q3 due to a surge in real imports, as well as disappointing private consumption and investment growth. Some media outlets have blamed the weak yen and COVID for the …
18th November 2022
Government intervention to tame inflation Headline inflation set a new three-decade high in October on aggressive rises in food inflation excluding fresh food and will remain near those highs this quarter. That said, government support measures will lower …
Bank of Japan to maintain policy despite soaring inflation Headline inflation remained set a new three-decade high in October and will remain near those highs this quarter. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy …
17th November 2022
Deficit to narrow by end-2022 The trade deficit widened but stayed below the record high in August, but with the yen strengthening significantly in recent weeks, the deficit should narrow later this quarter. Export values rose by a slower 25.3% y/y …
Yen rally to help narrow trade deficit The trade deficit widened but stayed below the record high in August, but with the yen strengthening significantly in recent weeks, the deficit should narrow later this quarter. Export values rose by a slower 25.3% …
Losing streak has further to run Weakness in the manufacturing sector led to “core” machinery orders falling for a second consecutive month in September. Worse still, machine tool orders indicate that the two-month losing streak, rare as it is, hasn’t …
16th November 2022
Imminent rebound in orders to be soft “Core” machinery orders fell for a second consecutive month in September due to weakness in manufacturing orders. While the usual see-saw patterns in orders point to a rebound that should materialise in October’s …
Technical recession looms in H1 2023 Japan’s economy contracted in Q3, with private consumption and business investment posting far weaker results than timelier data had suggested. Growth should turn positive in Q4, amid a rebound in inbound tourism and a …
15th November 2022
Economy to rebound in Q4 after Q3 contraction Japan’s economy contracted in Q3, with both private consumption and business investment posting far weaker results than timelier data had suggested. The single largest drag was from net trade due mostly to a …
Consumption resilient against Q3 virus wave The seventh COVID wave in Q3 has been the worst on record so far in terms of daily infections. Yet the Cabinet Office’s monthly estimate of private consumption for July and August was 0.6% above the Q2 average …
11th November 2022
We still expect consumer spending to rise rapidly over the coming year. But with many overseas trading partners entering recession, exports will decline. That will prompt firms to pull in their horns and weigh on business investment. The upshot is that we …
10th November 2022
Q4 spending rebound may not materialise Current readings picked up in October’s Economy Watchers Survey but remain well short of the peaks seen after previous virus waves ended. The deepening gloom captured by the outlook readings suggest that spending …
9th November 2022
A strong rebound in working hours in the accommodation and food services sector is one reason why regular pay is growing at the fastest pace in a generation. However, there’s been a broad-based upward shift in the distribution of pay hikes so the …
8th November 2022
Regular wage growth to fall alongside inflation and profitability The 2.1% rise in labour cash earnings in September was the fastest since 1997 but it was mostly driven by volatile bonus payments and won’t be sustained. However, regular earnings growth …
Inflation and reopening boost to keep earnings growth high Overall earnings rose 2.1% y/y in September, the fastest since 1997, but we don’t think this can be kept up consistently, given that a large spike in volatile bonus payments was key to hitting …
7th November 2022
Business investment strong in Q3 Data released on Monday showed that capital goods shipments fell by 4.1% m/m in September. But across Q3, capital goods shipments rose 11.4% q/q to the strongest they have been since Q4 2018. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s …
4th November 2022
The Bank of Japan’s renewed difficulties in defending its 10-year yield target have prompted fresh speculation that it may abandon Yield Curve Control. However, neither concerns about the functioning of the bond market nor worries about a weaker yen …
1st November 2022
Capital goods shipments strength to wane, retail sales outlook buoyant Industrial production declined in September whereas retail sales values saw another relatively strong rise. We are expecting a strong fourth quarter for retail sales, but industrial …
31st October 2022
Weakening global economy weighing on manufacturing outlook Industrial production declined in September whereas retail sales values saw another relatively strong rise. We are expecting a strong fourth quarter for retail sales, but industrial output looks …
MoF likely intervened again We revised up our inflation forecasts last week to reflect the further weakening of the yen to 150 against the dollar last week. As it happens, the yen jumped from a low-point of 152 against the dollar to 146 late on Friday, …
28th October 2022
The Bank of Japan revised up its medium-term inflation forecasts while keeping policy unchanged today, but we still think that it won’t snuff out the budding virtuous cycle between incomes and wages . As widely anticipated, the Bank kept its interest rate …
Window for tighter policy is closing The Bank of Japan revised up its medium-term inflation forecasts while keeping policy unchanged today, but we still think that it won’t snuff out the budding virtuous cycle between prices and wages. As widely …
Government subsidies to tame surging inflation The unemployment rate rose slightly in September on the back of a large jump in the labour force but a continued rise in the job-to-applicant ratio suggests that the labour market will tighten again before …
Tokyo inflation to start falling next month The unemployment rate rose slightly in September on the back of a large jump in the labour force and a continued rise in the job-to-applicant ratio suggests that the labour market will continue to tighten. …
German economy overtakes Japan’s With the yen weakening to 150 against the dollar this week, we estimate that Germany has overtaken Japan as the world’s third largest economy in dollar terms. (See Chart 1.) Chart 1: Nominal GDP (US$bn, 4Q Sum) Sources: …
21st October 2022
Higher inflation from weaker yen won’t prompt BoJ tightening Headline inflation remained at a three-decade high in September and will climb slightly higher by early 2023. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy …
Weaker yen means higher inflation for longer Headline inflation remained at a three-decade high in September and will climb slightly higher by early 2023. That said, the Bank of Japan will remain steadfast in maintaining its ultra-easy monetary policy. …
Economists from across our Asia teams were online for this 20-minute briefing on the region’s big investment stories. During this session, the team answered client questions about what’s happening in Asian economics and markets as they addressed current …
20th October 2022
Board will lift FY2022 inflation forecasts but signal below-target inflation further ahead High inflation is triggering larger pay hikes but that won’t last Even a hawkish successor for Kuroda would struggle to tighten during a global recession The …
