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Two of the leading contenders to form a government after Italy’s general election on 4th March advocate a radical overhaul of the country’s tax code. Their plans would result in a substantial reduction in taxes that they claim would provide a big boost to …
12th January 2018
Swedish policymakers will be discouraged by the fact that the decline in inflation in December was due to slower inflation for domestic goods and services. But with resource utilisation strong, domestic inflation looks set to pick up this year. We think …
November’s jump in euro-zone industrial production suggests that the sector finished last year on a strong footing, adding to the evidence that overall GDP growth picked up in Q4. And the manufacturing surveys point to a decent start to 2018. … Euro-zone …
11th January 2018
While the Riksbank’s early bond reinvestments will make policy slightly more expansionary in the short term, the minutes of December’s meeting suggest that the decision to bring forward reinvestments was taken mainly to avoid liquidity problems. There was …
10th January 2018
Despite December’s jump in inflation in Norway, underlying price pressures remain subdued. With house price inflation falling further into negative territory, we suspect that it will be a long time before the Norges Bank begins to raise interest rates. …
At the start of January, the euro reached a three-year high against the US dollar and a three-and-a-half year high in trade-weighted terms. While the euro’s climb over the past year or so may seem like a major headwind to economic growth, we remain …
9th January 2018
The euro-zone unemployment rate fell for the fourth consecutive month in November, highlighting the continued recovery in the labour market. But this will prompt only a modest pick-up in wage growth. … Euro-zone Unemployment …
November’s surge in German industrial production and the widening of the trade surplus brought welcome reassurance that the economy approached the end of 2017 in very good health. What’s more, the surveys point to further strength to come. … German …
Italy’s general election in March looks likely to produce a fragmented government with eurosceptic tendencies. We don’t think that it will pull Italy out of the euro-zone, but it may cause yields to rise. … Would Italian politicians really pull Italy out …
8th January 2018
December’s EC Business and Consumer Survey suggests that the euro-zone economy gained yet more momentum at the end of 2017, but inflation expectations remain low. This supports the ECB’s gradual approach to normalising monetary policy. We think that it …
While Swiss headline inflation was unchanged in December, there was a welcome rise in the core rate. But the big picture is that inflationary pressures remain subdued, so the Swiss National Bank will stick to its ultra-accommodative monetary policy …
The main news for the euro-zone economy at the year’s outset has been the further appreciation of the euro. While this might seem like a major headwind to the economy’s upturn, we remain optimistic that the euro-zone will continue to grow strongly in …
5th January 2018
With euro-zone headline inflation falling in December and core inflation still subdued, the ECB will continue to emphasise that interest rate hikes remain a long way off. … Euro-zone Flash CPI …
After bringing its net asset purchases to a close last month, the Riksbank reiterated that it expects to raise interest rates in September this year. The Bank’s track record suggests that this forecast should be taken with a generous pinch of salt; …
4th January 2018
The final estimate of December’s euro-zone Composite PMI confirmed that the economy finished the year on a high note, but inflationary pressures are building only slowly. … Euro-zone Final PMIs …
Recent fiscal data revealed mixed performances by the euro-zone’s peripheral countries in the year to November. While Ireland and Portugal are on course to outperform their 2017 state budget balance targets, Spain and Italy are likely to fall short. … …
3rd January 2018
The German unemployment rate held at a record low in December, suggesting that wage growth should pick up at least a little in the year ahead. So while the recent pace of employment growth seems unlikely to be sustained, consumer spending should continue …
December’s Swedish and Norwegian manufacturing PMIs suggest that industry in both countries ended 2017 on a strong note. But only in Sweden do we expect healthy economic growth to put sustained upward pressure on inflation this year. … Manufacturing PMIs …
2nd January 2018
The Catalan election result seems unlikely to prompt a major push for independence any time soon, so we doubt that it will have a material economic impact. As a result, the Spanish economy looks set to continue performing well. That said, if the situation …
22nd December 2017
The euro-zone economy performed better in 2017 than we and most forecasters had anticipated at the year’s outset. Investment growth picked up despite intense political uncertainty. And while a rise in inflation dampened households’ real incomes growth as …
21st December 2017
The Swedish and Norwegian central banks delivered fairly hawkish assessments of the outlook for monetary policy this month, but that did not stop their currencies from depreciating. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc has weakened to its lowest level since the …
The Riksbank’s announcement that it will end its net asset purchases this month is the beginning of a shift towards tighter monetary policy in Sweden. We think that it will ultimately raise interest rates more quickly than most other analysts anticipate, …
20th December 2017
December’s small decline in German Ifo business sentiment from a record high suggests that the outlook for next year is bright despite the uncertain political backdrop and the prospect of ECB QE tapering. But with wage growth still very subdued in Q3, the …
19th December 2017
Government bond yields in Portugal started 2017 almost twice as high as those in Italy, but look set to end the year at around the same level. While we think that yields will edge up across the region in 2018, we suspect that Portugal’s bonds will again …
18th December 2017
At this week’s press conference, Mario Draghi confirmed that the ECB’s corporate bond purchases will continue in “sizeable” quantities next year. The exact amount that it intends to buy is unclear, but we suspect that it will keep its corporate …
15th December 2017
The narrowing of the euro-zone’s goods trade surplus in October revealed that the external sector had a poor start to Q4. But with the global economy in good health and world trade growing at a decent pace, we doubt that this will be sustained. … …
We think that the euro-zone economic recovery is strong enough to cope with a gradual removal of policy support by the ECB over the coming years. The weak outlook for inflation will allow the ECB to tread carefully, limiting the adverse impact on …
While ECB President Draghi was upbeat about the economy at today’s press conference, he stated that the desire of some Governing Council members to signal an end to asset purchases is far from a consensus view. With the inflation outlook still reliant on …
14th December 2017
The Norges Bank left its key policy rate unchanged after its meeting today and brought the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates forward to autumn 2018. We think that it will wait until late 2019. … Interest rate hikes in Norway still a long …
The Swiss National Bank today reiterated that the Swiss franc remained “highly valued” and that it still needed to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels and intervene in the currency markets as necessary. And with inflation set to remain low, we …
The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI capped off a strong year and puts the economy on a very firm footing for the start of 2018. But with the survey’s price indices edging down in December, the ECB will continue to take a cautious approach to …
While there are some reasons to think that the Riksbank will extend its quantitative easing programme when it meets next week, we think that policymakers will let it expire. We also think that the Bank will keep its forward guidance on interest rates …
13th December 2017
October’s small rise in industrial production marked a soft start to Q4 but the surveys suggest that the sector will finish the year on a positive note. Meanwhile, employment data for Q3 showed that the labour market recovery is continuing to gain pace. … …
Following today’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI) noted that looser fiscal policy is a short-term risk to the monetary policy outlook. While we expect the new Government to announce a small fiscal expansion in …
The Nordic and Swiss Q3 GDP data revealed large differences between the best and worst performing economies. A quarterly contraction of 0.6% meant that Denmark underperformed the rest of the pack by a large margin. The drop in GDP was mainly due to a …
12th December 2017
Macro-prudential policies to cool the housing markets in Switzerland and Norway will allow their central banks to keep monetary policy loose, boosting inflation from its current low rates. By contrast, inflationary pressures in Sweden suggest that tighter …
December’s dip in German ZEW investor sentiment leaves it still at a high level and suggests that investors do not see political uncertainty as a major threat to the economic outlook. … German ZEW Survey …
Swedish inflation was higher than the Riksbank forecast in November, supporting our view that next week the Riksbank will not announce an extension of its asset purchase programme into 2018. … Swedish Consumer Prices …
The Greek crisis has abated and the Government may be able to exit its bailout next August as planned. But the exit will not be “clean” and the official creditors who still own the vast bulk of the debt will insist on continued politically toxic reforms. …
11th December 2017
The recent strength of German house price inflation is a justifiable response to increased urbanisation and a shift towards home ownership there. Given that mortgage lending growth remains moderate, there seems to be little risk to the German economy. And …
Inflation in Norway has probably reached a trough, but it is unlikely to rebound strongly. With house price inflation also slowing very sharply, we suspect that at its meeting on Thursday the Norges Bank will push back the date at which it forecasts …
The European Commission’s (EC) latest proposals for euro-zone reform and integration centred on the transformation of the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The EC plans to give the EMF a wider remit, with it acting as a …
8th December 2017
Very strong Icelandic growth in Q3 somewhat overstates the health of the economy, given that consumer spending was stagnant and exports slumped. That said, surveys bode well for the outlook. … Icelandic GDP …
The unexpected jump in French industrial production in October was fairly broad-based and shows that the sector made a very healthy start to Q4. Meanwhile, German trade data for the same month were soft, echoing the weak message from yesterday’s …
The Norges Bank is very unlikely to change its policy rate next week, but we think that it will push back the date at which it forecasts raising interest rates to the end of 2019. After all, the mainland economy is expanding at a decent pace, but spare …
7th December 2017
Despite signs that core inflation in Germany picked up in November, euro-zone core inflation remained unchanged at 0.9%. This suggests that despite strong economic growth, underlying inflationary pressures in the rest of the euro-zone actually softened …
Having announced a plan to buy assets at a reduced pace of €30bn per month from January until September 2018 after its last meeting, the ECB seems very unlikely to make any changes this month. It should confirm that corporate bonds will make up a greater …
Although the Swiss franc has weakened further over the past three months, we doubt that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will sound any more relaxed about the exchange rate in its policy statement next week. Admittedly, the ECB’s gradual shift towards policy …
The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q3 confirmed that the 0.6% expansion was driven mainly by domestic demand. Timelier evidence suggests that the economy has performed well so far in Q4, setting it up for a strong 2018. We think that the economy will …
October’s drop in German industrial production largely reflected the timing of holidays – high levels of industrial orders and business confidence point to a renewed acceleration to come. … German Industrial Production …
