Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Economics Use setting Europe Economics
The latest Spanish house price data provide further evidence that the housing market is set for a hard landing. We expect house price falls of around one third over the next few years to push the economy into a prolonged recession. … Spanish housing …
15th October 2008
The Norges Bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years was drivenby the recent events in global financial markets. But with the outlook for economic activitydeteriorating and inflation worries easing, further interest …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW Survey (Oct.) & Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Aug.) …
14th October 2008
The announcement of a co-ordinated framework to kick-start interbank lending in the euro-zone and boost banks’ tier one capital has helped equity markets and the euro to rally. But we doubt that these plans will prevent the economy from continuing to …
13th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the ECB's softer stance too good to last? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production (Aug.) & EZ GDP (Q2, Final) …
8th October 2008
Today’s co-ordinated interest rate cuts by European central banks clearly demonstrate a determination to provide short-term stability to financial markets. As economic conditions continue to deteriorate in the coming months, we expect further aggressive …
The Icelandic authorities are fighting tooth and nail to restore confidence in the ailing economy and crumbling banking system. But it seems inevitable that the economy is set for a prolonged slowdown, with a significant deterioration in the public …
7th October 2008
We have cut our forecasts for GDP growth and interest rates in the euro-zone alongside those in other areas. But we still believe that the region’s relative lack of major economic imbalances point to a somewhat shallower and shorter downturn than those …
The German banking sector guarantee provides further confirmation that governments will do all that they can to protect households’ deposits. Although such measures should help to gradually restore confidence in banks, they could clearly do some serious …
6th October 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB finally considering rate cuts …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Aug.) & Final Composite PMI (Sep.) …
3rd October 2008
A much more dovish tone from President Trichet today suggests that the Bank will cut interest rates before the year is out. Markets are coming around to our long-held view that rates will reach 3% next year, but there is a very good chance that they fall …
2nd October 2008
The euro-zone activity outlook has weakened further, but September’s dramatic financial market and banking sector developments have obviously grabbed the limelight. With a number of euro-zone governments stepping in to rescue ailing banks, it is clear …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment & German Retail Sales (Aug.) …
1st October 2008
Another wave of euro-zone government bailouts and a bank guarantee by the Irish government show that the credit crunch is beginning to take a greater hold on the region, raising the risk of a more prolonged economic downturn. … The implications of the …
30th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash CPI & German Unemployment (Sep.) …
Yesterday’s €11.2bn government bailout of Fortis Bank, the largest euro-zone bank rescue sinc the credit crunch began, is the starkest evidence yet that the region’s banking system is not immune to the problems which have recently hit the US and UK. … …
29th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industrial slowdown unlikely to turn into slump …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German CPI (1st Est. Sep.) …
26th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss KOF Barometer (Sep.) …
Recent ECB communications have maintained a stubbornly hawkish tone, despite extreme tension in financial markets and growing evidence of weak activity. This month’s press statement is unlikely to hint at near-term interest rate cuts and will probably …
25th September 2008
Ireland’s second quarter GDP figures confirmed the inevitable – that the collapse in the property sector has driven the wider economy into a recession. With house prices set to fall considerably further, the outlook is unambiguously grim. … Irish boom …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone M3 (Aug.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Ifo Survey, French & Italian Business Confidence (Sep.) …
24th September 2008
The downturn in the euro-zone economy largely reflects the temporary squeeze from high inflation rather than a fundamental adjustment triggered by the credit crunch as is the case in the US and UK. Accordingly, we still expect the region to perform …
23rd September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Europe caught in the storm …
22nd September 2008
The Swiss National Bank left its target range for three-month interest rates unchanged at a mid-point of 2.75%. But with the economic slowdown set to intensify and inflation on course to return to target early next year, the Bank looks set to cut interest …
18th September 2008
Interest rate expectations in the euro-zone have fallen sharply along with those elsewhere in recent weeks and are now pricing in a strong chance of an ECB rate cut this year. While we think that talk of interest rate cuts this year is premature, we still …
17th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW Survey (Sep.) & Euro-zone CPI (Aug. Final) …
16th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q2) …
15th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will pay pressures obstruct the ECB? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Ind. Prod. (Jul.) & Employment (Q2) …
12th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … France Industrial Production & Trade (Jul.) …
10th September 2008
The latest changes to the leadership of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) probably bode well for long-term structural reform of the economy. But they also further reduce the chance of near-term tax cuts to support the ailing consumer sector. … …
8th September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Producer price pass-through should be limited …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production (Jul.) …
5th September 2008
The European Central Bank’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that interest rate cuts are not yet on the agenda. But we still expect slowing activity and falling energy inflation to pave the way for a pretty aggressive policy loosening …
4th September 2008
The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal that the current economic slowdown should ensure that …
Thursday’s ECB press conference provides the Bank with a chance to provide greater details about any proposed changes to its collateral requirements for lending in its open market operations. While we expect any changes to be minor and have a fairly …
3rd September 2008
Euro-zone consumer price inflation has finally begun to fall, slipping from 4.0% to 3.8% in August. If the oil price remains at current levels, falling energy inflation alone should knock at least 1.5 percentage points off the headline rate over the next …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q2) & Retail Sales (Jul.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Producer Prices (Jul.) …
2nd September 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss GDP (Q2) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Retail Sales (Jul.) & EZ Final Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) …
1st September 2008
