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Today’s announcement that the Swedish Riksbank is to borrow €3bn from the ECB confirms that, while the green shoots of recovery may be starting to emerge in parts of the global economy, the Baltic crisis remains a major weight on the Swedish economy’s …
10th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production & Trade (Apr.) …
9th June 2009
Today we have revised our key economic forecasts. At the same time, we have updated our projections for currency, bond, equity and commodity markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table at the bottom of page 2. Included for the first time …
8th June 2009
The recent upward revision to our forecasts for the US and UK economies has prompted only a modest increase in our euro-zone forecast given less convincing signs of a recovery so far and a disappointing policy response in the region. However, we still …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro’s strength may not last …
7th June 2009
By leaving interest rates on hold and simply revealing the details of previously announced modest covered bond purchases, the ECB did the least that might have been expected today. Accordingly, the Bank continues to lag far behind others in its support …
4th June 2009
The collapse in euro-zone exports in Q1 – and indeed in Q4 last year – was greater than would be expected from the decline in global demand. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the drying up of trade finance was an additional factor. If the tentative signs …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) …
Concerns about the health of the Swedish banking system have increased further in response to a growing threat of an exchange rate devaluation in the Baltics. While the impact of such a devaluation on the Swedish banking system may be exaggerated, rising …
3rd June 2009
The breakdown of Q1’s euro-zone GDP figures brought little comfort. The record 2.5% quarterly drop was driven mainly by falls in investment and inventories, while a sharp drop in exports was largely offset by a fall in imports. It is broadly encouraging …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q1) & Producer Prices (Apr.) …
The perceived rigidity of euro-zone labour markets will certainly not prevent a brief period of negative inflation in the region. What’s more, with wage growth probably set to drop towards zero in the coming quarters, there is a risk of a more sustained …
2nd June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Unemployment (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swiss GDP (Q1) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone a whisker away from deflation …
31st May 2009
April’s data revealed that there was no let-up in the downward trend in both broad money and lending growth in the euro-zone. This further supports our view that the ECB’s injections of short-term liquidity into the banking system have not been …
29th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Swedish GDP (Q1) …
Euro-zone interest rates will almost certainly be on hold in June, but the focus has shifted to any developments regarding unconventional policies. The Bank is likely to confirm its intention to start purchasing covered bonds with more or less immediate …
28th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone EC Survey (May) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German CPI (1st Est. May) …
27th May 2009
Our analysis suggests that the inventory rundown underway in the euro-zone manufacturing sector has further to go and, crucially, that the pace of destocking is likely to be even greater in Q2 than in Q1. Accordingly, all we can hope for in the short term …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … French & Italian Consumer Conf. (May), Spanish Retail Sales (Apr.) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German GDP (Q1) …
26th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Light at the end of the tunnel for the external sector …
25th May 2009
The financial crisis triggered a synchronised shock that temporarily interrupted most economic activities. However, at some point households and businesses will start making some of the decisions presumably postponed because of heightened uncertainty, …
22nd May 2009
The latest Irish inflation figures revealed that core inflation tumbled deeper into negative territory in April, suggesting that the chance of a prolonged bout of negative inflation is growing. This should provide policymakers in the euro-zone as a whole …
21st May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May) …
Surveys of German consumer sentiment have diverged markedly lately, with the EC survey pointin to very sharp falls in spending but the GfK version broadly consistent with stagnation. We think that the less pessimistic GfK survey, which is focused on …
20th May 2009
The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the subsequent Nordic economic recovery, merely following …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German ZEW Survey (May) …
19th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Norwegian GDP (Q1) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Trade Balance (Mar.) …
18th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower loan rates: too little, too slow …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone GDP (Q1) …
15th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spanish GDP (Q1) …
14th May 2009
Fiscal austerity is a thing of the past. However, in its just-released Regional Economic Outlook for Europe the IMF stressed that, without a credible and sustainable strategy to ensure fiscal sustainability, ballooning budget deficits will increase …
13th May 2009
The ‘bad bank’ plan approved by the German Cabinet today goes a bit further towards solving banks’ problems than measures existing elsewhere in the euro-zone. But while the plan should improve banks’ liquidity, it does little to reduce uncertainty related …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) …
While the latest OECD leading indicators brought further signs of the ‘green shoots’ of recovery in some euro-zone economies, Germany continues to suffer from the weakness in global trade. Until that changes, the euro-zone recovery will be muted. … The …
12th May 2009
Although euro-zone retail sales have dropped lately, other types of spending appear to have held up relatively well. Sadly, it seems unlikely that this trend lasted into the first quarter and we expect total consumer spending to have contracted sharply. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … France & Italy Industrial Production (Mar.) …
11th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the ECB reached its limit? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German Industrial Production & Trade (Mar.) …
8th May 2009
The ECB continues to lag behind. Although it delivered a 25bp interest rate cut today, the unconventional policy measures also announced look very timid compared to those already adopted by other central banks. … ECB disappoints on unconventional …
7th May 2009
The old adage goes that if you ask ten economists their views on something you get ten different answers. But there is one topic where nearly all economists agreed some years back: the prognosis for Europe’s sick man, Italy, is terminal. However, without …
April’s business surveys provided some tentative signs that the euro-zone economy may start to contract at a less rapid pace in Q2. But any improvement will be from a very low base. Indeed, the latest news suggests that the economy may have contracted by …
6th May 2009
Today’s further cut in interest rates by the Norges Bank has brought rates close to their likely trough. But with the risk of deflation remaining pretty small and the economy still on track for one of the mildest recessions in Europe, the Bank is unlikely …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final Composite PMI (Apr.) …
