Filtered by Subscriptions: Europe Economics Use setting Europe Economics
Despite the recent upward revision to our forecast for Italian GDP growth, we still think that the Government’s budget deficit and debt forecasts are too sanguine. … Italy’s debt dynamics still look …
21st August 2013
The recent return of economic growth in the euro-zone does not eradicate the risk that some of the peripheral economies will undertake some form of sovereign default. … Return to growth won’t eliminate euro-zone default …
20th August 2013
The mainland Norwegian economy slowed quite sharply in Q2 as a result of faltering household spending, supporting our long-held view that the economy will slow over the coming year. … Norwegian GDP …
The mainland Norwegian economy slowed quite sharply in Q2 as a result of faltering household spending, supporting our long-held view that the economy will slow over the coming year. … Norwegian GDP (Q2 …
Slovenia’s large export sector is faring rather well, supporting the country’s efforts to avoid a bail-out from the euro-zone. But exporters alone will not save Slovenia. Rather, the Government needs to be more ambitious in dealing with the country’s …
19th August 2013
While the second quarter’s 0.3% expansion in euro-zone GDP may partly have reflected temporary factors, there seems little reason to doubt that the region’s record-long recession is finally at an end. But with the improvement driven largely by the …
The rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2, coupled with the improvements in the key business surveys, confirms that a turning point in the business cycle has been reached. But these developments do not guarantee that the euro-zone is on the cusp of a healthy and …
15th August 2013
Q2’s 0.5% quarterly rise in French GDP, which was the strongest in over two years, has prompted optimism that the economy has finally joined Germany on a path to solid growth. But while we have revised up our forecasts, we still think that it is much too …
The return to modest rates of economic growth in the euro-zone as a whole won’t address the deep-seated economic and fiscal problems of the peripheral countries. … Euro-zone GDP …
14th August 2013
Germany seems set to introduce a national minimum wage after September’s election. But it will probably do little to boost German consumer spending or to rebalance the euro-zone more generally. … German minimum wage won’t rebalance the …
13th August 2013
June’s euro-zone industrial production data and August’s German ZEW survey provide further signs that the euro-zone has emerged from recession. … Euro-zone Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & German ZEW Survey …
The Greek GDP figures, which suggest that the economy may have expanded in Q2, confirm that Greece has benefitted from the recent period of relative calm and stability. But a strong and sustained expansion is still a long way off and another major debt …
12th August 2013
The national industrial production figures for June provided further evidence that euro-zone GDP might have expanded in Q2. Nonetheless, a closer look at the data suggests that the figures are perhaps not quite as encouraging as they seem. The improvement …
9th August 2013
June’s German industrial production data point to a healthy rise in GDP in Q2 and the sector could continue to build up steam in the near term. … German Industrial Production …
7th August 2013
Time is running short for President François Hollande to fulfil his vow to reverse the trend of rising French unemployment by the end of 2013. Despite the recent improvement in the business surveys and a raft of labour market reforms, we doubt very much …
6th August 2013
Q2’s flash GDP release suggested that Italy’s deep recession is gradually easing. But an imminent and sustained period of growth still looks too much to hope for. … Italian Flash GDP (Q2) & Industrial Production …
Ireland has been widely hailed as a “poster boy” for the euro-zone’s austerity driven crisis response. But the major challenges still facing the economy undermine the view that the country has forged an escape route for the other troubled peripheral …
5th August 2013
The Danish property market, at the heart of the country’s long slump, is on the mend. This suggests that the economy is finally turning a corner, but the recovery in both house prices and the wider economy is likely to be fairly anaemic in the next few …
July’s final PMI surveys improved the chances that the euro-zone is about to move out of recession. But the continued weakness of consumer activity adds to the doubts over the likely strength and sustainability of any impending recovery. … Euro-zone …
President Draghi failed to convincingly improve the ECB’s transparency last week. He added some detail to last month’s pledge that interest rates would “remain at present or lower levels for an extended period” by stating that markets’ expectations for a …
A slow but steady removal of monetary stimulus in the US over the next few years is likely to have important implications for a wide variety of financial market instruments. It should buoy the dollar, put gradual upward pressure on the yields of …
1st August 2013
Survey-based euro-zone activity indicators like the composite PMI have continued to strengthen in recent months, raising the prospect that the currency union’s economy may finally emerge from its near two-year recession in the third quarter. However, the …
31st July 2013
The latest news on euro-zone unemployment and inflation injected a slight note of caution after the recent run of better news from the region. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Jul.) & Unemployment …
The latest figures on the public finances show that Italy and Portugal are struggling to reduce their budget deficits, but Ireland, Greece and Spain are faring rather better. … Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor …
30th July 2013
July’s EC survey added to evidence that the downturn in the euro-zone is easing, but it certainly did not point to a strong recovery. … Euro-zone EC Survey …
Credit growth slowed last month, a sign that the cash crunch delivered some of what policymakers were hoping for. But credit is still expanding more than twice as fast as economic output, which means that a further slowdown will be needed to bring credit …
The fall in Swedish GDP in Q2, which mainly reflected a sharp slowdown in household spending, supports our long-held view that the consensus expectation for a steady acceleration in economic growth over the next year or so is too optimistic. … Swedish GDP …
Last week’s euro-zone data revealed a further pick-up in some measures of real economic activity, with the composite PMI for July raising the prospect that the region’s two-year recession could come to an end in the third quarter. However, the continued …
29th July 2013
With indicators of economic activity improving slightly, the ECB is unlikely to cut interest rates this month. Meanwhile, divisions within the Governing Council might prevent it from clarifying last month’s pledge to keep rates low for “an extended …
25th July 2013
The further weakening in the key euro-zone monetary aggregates in June has further strengthened the case for additional policy stimulus from the ECB. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
July’s small rise in the German Ifo added to evidence that the economy is gathering momentum, but the recovery is likely to be relatively modest. … German Ifo Survey …
The rise in the euro-zone PMI in July provides further evidence that the region may be exiting recession. But with credit conditions still tight and fiscal policy set to remain contractionary, a strong and sustained recovery remains unlikely. … …
24th July 2013
Initial estimates of Spanish GDP growth in Q2 suggest that the pace of contraction continued to moderate. Nonetheless, we still think that suggestions that Spain is on the cusp of an economic recovery are far too optimistic. … Spanish GDP (Q2 …
23rd July 2013
The formation of the single currency has prompted many of the euro-zone economies’ nominal economic variables, such as inflation, to become more similar. But real economic variables, such as the unemployment rate, have diverged, implying that true …
There is little sign that the Spanish housing downturn will come to an end any time soon. Not only does this spell bad news for households, it will also pile even more pressure on the troubled banks. … Spanish house prices still have much further to …
22nd July 2013
The lending capacity of the euro-zone’s bail-out funds is coming under strain again. €289bn of the ESM’s €500bn lending capacity has already been committed and developments in Portugal, Greece and Ireland last week suggested that all three might need more …
The ECB’s planned review of banks’ balance sheets is key to resuscitating the euro-zone’s struggling banking sector. Forthcoming stress tests are likely to be more credible than previous rounds, but filling the resulting capital shortfalls will put …
18th July 2013
Some central banks are beginning to make greater use of “forward guidance” to signal that interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The evidence from Sweden, where the Riksbank has been publishing forecasts for the main policy interest …
Fitch’s downgrade of the EFSF has limited implications for the time being. But it will add to pressure on the euro-zone’s core countries who guarantee the various bail-out mechanisms to continue with their own controversial fiscal consolidation to keep …
16th July 2013
German investor sentiment weakened in July as disappointing hard data and troubles in Portugal reminded investors that the euro-zone crisis is far from over. And May’s sharp fall in euro-zone exports dented hopes of an export-led recovery in the bloc. … …
Some commentators have pointed to the recent run of encouraging Spanish unemployment figures as evidence that the green shoots of recovery may be emerging there. But we are far from convinced that the labour market is really on the mend. … Is the …
The risk of Portugal needing more financial support is growing. Even if a second bail-out can be agreed in the run-up to the German election, it is likely to involve private sector losses. And the ECB seems unlikely to step in with big enough bond …
15th July 2013
Last week’s German trade data revealed a sharp drop in exports, suggesting that the economy’s export engine is not performing particularly well. Much attention has focused on the deteriorating outlook for China, which has dented earlier hopes that German …
May’s euro-zone industrial production data show that the sector cannot be relied upon to generate a strong and sustained recovery. … Euro-zone Industrial Production (May …
12th July 2013
As the German economy struggles to grow, the Government will continue to resist the permanent transfers that the euro-zone’s periphery needs. But it will probably back further extensions to deficit targets and, despite resistance from the Bundesbank, more …
11th July 2013
We have long argued that the strength of the Norwegian krone would push the Norges Bank into further monetary easing. While the currency’s recent sell-off might ease pressure on the Bank somewhat, we still expect another rate cut by the end of the year. … …
10th July 2013
The European economy has shown tentative signs of improvement in recent months, with activity indicators in both Germany and some of the peripheral euro-zone countries regaining a firmer tone after weakening earlier in the year. But the recovery is built …
9th July 2013
