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The latest Portuguese GDP figures will bolster hopes that the Government can follow in Ireland’s footsteps and make a clean break from its bail-out later this year. … Portuguese GDP …
11th March 2014
Italy exited its long recession in Q4. But the recovery will struggle to gather enough steam this year to erode the country’s crushing public debt load. … Italian GDP …
February’s consumer prices figures for the Nordic countries revealed a continued disparity between subdued inflation rates in Sweden and Denmark on the one hand and much stronger price pressures in Norway. We expect that disparity to persist over the …
While last week’s decision by the ECB to leave policy on hold may be a signal that the euro-zone’s long monetary policy loosening cycle is finally over, the combination of the greater emphasis on the slack in the economy and the strong euro could yet …
10th March 2014
Germany’s January industrial production numbers provide some hope that the economy’s main growth engine is starting to pick up some revs. … German Industrial Production …
7th March 2014
The continued growth of Iceland’s economy in Q4 suggests that the country is on the road to recovery. … Iceland GDP (Q4) …
The continued growth of Iceland’s economy in Q4 suggests that the country is on the road to recovery. … Iceland GDP (Q4 13) …
The ECB opted to keep its policy powder dry today, preferring instead to strengthen its verbal forward guidance by emphasising the large amount of slack in the economy. But we still think it may need to support its words with actions to sustain the …
6th March 2014
Although the strength of Slovenia’s Q4 GDP outturn owed a lot to temporary factors, the expansion underlined that the economy is on the road to recovery and will probably avoid a euro-zone bail-out. … Light at the end of the tunnel for …
While euro-zone activity indicators suggest that the region’s recovery has picked up speed a bit in the early months of 2014, growth remains worryingly unbalanced. For now, exporters appear to be coping with the strength of the euro exchange rate – export …
5th March 2014
Italian economic prospects have improved over recent months, but we still think that GDP growth there will remain weaker than in the euro-zone as a whole, both in the short and medium term. … Is Italy's recovery gaining …
The latest batch of data on the euro-zone provided rather mixed signals for the European Central Bank ahead of its Governing Council meeting on Thursday. But we still think more policy action is needed and, on balance, likely. … Euro-zone GDP (Q4), …
The chances of Portugal following in Ireland’s footsteps and making a “clean break” from its bailout have recently grown. Nonetheless, we think that it may still need further loans and some form of debt restructuring before it is in a position to stand on …
4th March 2014
While the Ukraine crisis won’t have major effects on the European economy, it is another warning to the policymakers not to rely on a very positive global environment to sustain the region’s recovery. … Does the Ukraine crisis threaten the European …
Despite last week's stronger than expected euro-zone inflation figures, the combination of still very weak price pressures, the strong euro and recent falls in liquidity in the banking sector still presents a compelling case for further ECB policy action …
3rd March 2014
February’s euro-zone consumer prices figures don’t change the picture of very weak price pressures in the currency union and hence don’t rule out further policy action from the ECB next week. … Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment …
28th February 2014
The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be weaker than the consensus view this year. … Swedish …
The surge in Swedish GDP in Q4 confirms that the economy remains one of the region’s strongest performers. But while it has prompted us to revise up our GDP forecast we still think that growth will be weaker than the consensus view this year. … Swedish & …
While the euro-zone activity data has continued to show some improvement, the combination of very low inflation, the strong euro and falling liquidity in the banking sector has maintained pressure on the ECB to provide further policy support. While not …
27th February 2014
The small rise in the European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in February provided another indication that the economic recovery has built up a little momentum at the start of the year. … Euro-zone EC Survey (Feb.) & Spanish GDP …
Given hopes that the ECB’s Asset Quality Review had temporarily depressed lending last year, January’s weak euro-zone monetary data will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. … Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor …
While Q4’s Swiss GDP figures were a bit disappointing, they do not suggest that the economy is succumbing to the strength of the exchange rate. … Swiss GDP (Q4 …
The smaller euro-zone peripheral economies made good fiscal progress last year, but the adjustment process is by no means over yet. Italy and Spain fared less well. As a result, this year, they may need to make up any slippage in 2013. … Euro-zone …
26th February 2014
Denmark’s mortgage-bond market, the third largest covered bond market in the world, looks set to avoid a painful regulatory overhaul that might have weighed on the country’s recovery. … Danish mortgage market set to weather regulatory …
A surge in support for euro-sceptic parties at the European Parliament elections in May will probably have little direct impact on the institution itself. But rising support for populist parties may further weaken national politicians’ appetite for …
24th February 2014
The rise in February’s German Ifo survey suggests that the economic recovery has continued to pick up some momentum in the early months of 2014. But growth in the euro-zone’s main engine looks set to be solid rather than spectacular. … German Ifo Survey …
The euro-zone’s recovery appears to have continued at the beginning of 2014. But the recovery is struggling to gather enough pace to banish the deflationary menace facing the region. … Slow euro-zone recovery leaves deflation threat …
February’s euro-zone PMIs suggest that the region’s recovery is struggling to gather pace. This will keep pressure on the ECB to loosen policy further. … Euro-zone Flash PMIs …
20th February 2014
The Netherlands was the fastest growing euro-zone economy in Q4. But while the country is on the road to recovery, growth will slow in the coming quarters. … Dutch recovery on track, but pace will …
19th February 2014
The euro-zone’s proposed banking union will help to strengthen the region’s financial system. But the benefits will be slow to feed into the real economy. And the current framework for banking union does not resolve the euro-zone’s underlying structural …
18th February 2014
February’s ZEW survey gave mixed signals, suggesting that whilst the economic situation is improving slowly, investors are losing some optimism about the future. … German ZEW Survey …
Q4’s euro-zone GDP figures confirmed that the currency union’s economic situation improved marginally at the end of last year, but the ECB will need to take further action to ensure that the recovery is sustained. Despite a raft of fairly upbeat data and …
17th February 2014
The modest growth of the euro-zone economy in Q4 will have done little to address the deep-seated problems of the peripheral countries or to head off the dangers of deflation across the currency union. … Euro-zone GDP …
14th February 2014
The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will eventually be pushed back. … Rates hikes in Sweden remain …
13th February 2014
The Swedish Riksbank reiterated at its meeting today that it does not expect to raise interest rates until early next year. But we think that the expected start date of its tightening cycle will eventually be pushed back. … Rates hikes in Sweden remain a …
December’s weak industrial production figures highlight that the euro-zone’s industrial recovery remains fragile. … Euro-zone Industrial Production …
12th February 2014
Although the Icelandic central bank left its policy rate unchanged today, the Sedlabanki gave a strong indication that it is likely to tighten policy later this year. … Sedlabanki holds, but will hike later this …
Although the Norwegian krone will fare better in 2014 than it did last year, the currency may well depreciate a little further. … Slide in Norwegian krone may not be over …
10th February 2014
The euro-zone’s difficult monetary conditions will add to the disinflationary pressures in the region. Admittedly, Mario Draghi suggested last week that temporary factors such as the AQR were depressing bank lending, while firms were increasingly tapping …
December’s German industrial production figures came as a bit of a blow to hopes that the euro-zone’s main growth engine was picking up speed. … German Industrial Production …
7th February 2014
While the European Central Bank (ECB) disappointed hopes of more policy support today, the growing risk of deflation and dovish signals from President Mario Draghi suggest that further action will arrive very soon. We retain our forecast of a small cut in …
6th February 2014
Sweden is less at risk from a prolonged and damaging bout of deflation than the euro-zone, despite the fact that CPI inflation is currently lower in the former. … Should Sweden be worried about …
5th February 2014
Despite the recent bout of disappointing global economic news and financial market turbulence, economic indicators like the PMI suggest that the euro-zone’s fragile recovery gained a bit of a momentum around the turn of the year. And December’s sharp drop …
Whilst December’s retail sales data suggested that consumers showed little festive cheer, January’s final composite PMI survey indicated that the wider euro-zone recovery may have gained a little momentum at the start of 2014. … Euro-zone Retail Sales …
While a bout of deflation in the euro-zone back in 2009 proved to be short-lived and harmless, there are reasons why a new episode of falling prices would be longer-lasting and more damaging. … Deflation dangers are greater this …
4th February 2014
