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Rebalancing of China’s economy away from investment and heavy industry will require significant reform of the financial sector and of monetary policy, including higher (not lower) interest rates. Financial sector reform will include further development of …
28th May 2008
China’s headline inflation eased in March, but there are worrying signs that price pressures may be spreading beyond food. The activity data confirm that the economy remains strong, easing at least one set of concerns over the outlook. Export growth has …
24th May 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (Apr) …
12th May 2008
Fiscal policy could make a significant contribution to reducing China’s massive current account surplus, though discussion of rebalancing often overlooks its potential. The government has the resources to increase spending or cut taxes now, but it is …
17th April 2008
We expect the renminbi to rise by around 15% against the dollar this year (taking it to 6.20 yuan/$) and another 10% in 2009 (to 5.60). The faster pace of appreciation over the last few months has probably been kick-started by inflation concerns and …
1st April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (Feb) …
11th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Trade, PPI (Feb.) …
10th March 2008
After several years during which wages have grown more slowly than the economy, consumption accounted for barely a third of overall Chinese demand in 2007. But there are a couple of reasons to think it will play a much bigger role in the next couple of …
24th February 2008
Chinese inflation is now at its highest in 11 years, and there seems little prospect of it falling much in the next couple of months. This has set alarm bells ringing in countries that have grown accustomed to cheap Chinese imports helping to keep a lid …
21st February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China Consumer Prices (Jan) …
19th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China External Trade (Jan) …
15th February 2008
Continued high inflation is a worry for China’s monetary policy-makers. But higher prices have helped many food producers: real incomes are now growing faster in rural areas than in the cities. Families also seem to have reacted to higher food bills by …
26th November 2007
The biggest winners from the recent spate of scares over Chinese exports may be Chinese consumers, who have long dealt with product safety concerns far more serious than those experienced in export markets. For their part, most Chinese manufacturers can …
26th September 2007
Expectation-beating GDP numbers and rapid inflation have again provoked talk of a hard landing for China. However growth close to current rates still looks sustainable. Inflation will probably climb even higher as food prices continue to rise this summer. …
26th August 2007
China’s economy does not seem to be slowing, but there are tentative signs that a long-awaited rebalancing of domestic demand from investment to consumption is underway. China’s external imbalance – the current account surplus – yawns ever wider though …
26th July 2007
The boom in Chinese stocks and, now, a sudden spike in pork prices have been interpreted by some as evidence that the authorities are losing the battle to prevent China’s huge export earnings feeding inflation. In fact, pork price inflation is a global, …
26th June 2007
The second meeting of the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue this week will be a test of US Treasury Secretary Paulson’s non-confrontational approach with China. We think he will be hard-pressed to pull anything much from his hat. As a result, those …
21st May 2007
China’s stock markets are overvalued but perhaps not by as much as recent gains would suggest. The equity boom started when valuations were at a low level and, although shares now look pricey compared to other Asian markets, they are not yet at historic …
10th May 2007
China’s economy surged ahead in the first quarter with investment, consumption and trade all stronger than expected or (with the exception of consumption) hoped for. As if on cue, March inflation broke through 3%, the highest for two years. But there is …
26th April 2007
The surge in China’s trade surplus in January and February grabbed the headlines. But we suspect that the jump in export growth was at least partly driven by firms bringing shipments forward to avoid expected reductions to export tax rebates. As such it …
26th March 2007
China’s economic growth should ease this year and next to an average of around 9.0% as the investment boom finally comes to an end and the trade surplus increases at a much slower rate. Fears that “overheating” will cause policymakers to slam on the …
26th February 2007
Record trade surpluses, buoyant retail sales and a renewed acceleration in electricity production are among many indicators pointing to continued strong growth throughout the second half of the year. Indeed, what some have called “runaway” growth in the …
26th October 2006
The surge in GDP growth in the second quarter has encouraged fears that the Chinese economy is about to overheat. However, there is still little hard evidence of an inflation problem. The monetary data suggests that consumer price inflation might rise to …
26th August 2006
