Filtered by Subscriptions: Canada Economics Use setting Canada Economics
The unexpectedly large widening of the trade deficit in October is a sign of things to come, as continued falls in energy prices in November will have pushed export values down further. The planned cuts in energy production could also hit exports early …
6th December 2018
Despite the recent slump in oil prices, the Bank of Canada confirmed today that it intends to raise interest rates at least three more times. However, we think that a deterioration in the economy will cause the Bank to stop hiking rates sooner than it …
5th December 2018
The combined effect of Alberta’s forced oil production cuts and the slump in oil prices on activity in the sector are set to push Canadian GDP growth down to around 0.5% annualised in the first quarter. … GDP growth heading toward zero in first …
4th December 2018
The sharp downward revisions to the saving rate imply that households are even more vulnerable to higher interest rate than we had previously thought. In that environment, the Bank of Canada’s plan to raise interest rates repeatedly could be a serious …
3rd December 2018
This week’s media coverage painted far too positive a picture of foreign direct investment in Canada, which remains lower than a year ago and after the recent slump in oil prices is likely to deteriorate further. Next week, the focus will turn to the Bank …
30th November 2018
The economy’s third-quarter performance was weaker than the headline GDP gain of 2.0% annualised suggests. Consumer spending growth slowed sharply, while investment contracted for the second quarter running. Given the mounting headwinds from lower oil …
We suspect that the Bank of Canada will deliver a more dovish message next week than investors seem to expect. … Bank to present cautious message as oil prices …
28th November 2018
The recent slump in oil prices has invoked memories of the 2015 crash, but the Canadian economy looks less vulnerable this time round. Back then, WTI had hovered at close to $100 for four years and investment had picked up accordingly. As the run-up and …
27th November 2018
After the stabilisation of the Toronto housing market this year, it’s tempting to think that the deterioration in the Vancouver market will end in a soft landing. But Vancouver housing is more overvalued, and there are clear signs of excess supply coming …
26th November 2018
The increased depreciation tax allowance in the fall update was generally well received by businesses, but the recent slump in oil prices means that it is unlikely to prevent investment growth from slowing next year. While the Bank of Canada has said that …
23rd November 2018
Headline inflation picked up in October, but slumping energy prices mean that it is likely to decline sharply from here. There were few signs of increasing core price pressures in October, and we expect core inflation to decline in the coming months. … …
In his fall budget update, Finance Minister Bill Morneau more than used up the revenue windfall from stronger GDP growth and higher oil prices this year to increase incentives for business investment. Unfortunately, the recent slump in oil prices means …
22nd November 2018
The slump in oil prices this week is undoubtedly bad for the economy, but we’re not convinced by reports of an imminent 6% cut in oil production. While the loonie proved resilient to the drop in oil prices, we expect it to depreciate a touch further next …
16th November 2018
September’s rise in manufacturing sales capped off a strong quarter, but sales fell in volumes terms and the breakdown was hardly encouraging. While the Markit manufacturing PMI remained fairly high in October, it nevertheless points to a moderation of …
Favourable base effects explain the pick-up in house price inflation in October. Prices only inched up on the month in seasonally-adjusted terms, and we suspect that house price inflation will slow before long. … Teranet House Prices …
15th November 2018
Recent declines in oil prices will not by themselves cause a repeat of the 2015 economic slump. But they are a reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates repeatedly. … Oil price slump won’t cause repeat of …
14th November 2018
While the recent data paint contrasting pictures about the pace of wages and salaries growth, there are fundamental reasons to think that it has slowed over the second half of 2018. … Income growth past its …
13th November 2018
While the US midterm results mean that there is now even more uncertainty about when the USMCA might be signed by Congress, we do not think that the trade deal itself is in doubt. Meanwhile, there were some positive signs for the housing market this week, …
9th November 2018
With investors already pricing in three more rate hikes from the Bank of Canada, it’s hard to see much support for the consensus view that the Canadian dollar will rise by 5% from here. We think that further falls in oil prices and fewer rate hikes than …
5th November 2018
While the data this week revealed that GDP was better than expected in August, the growth rate nevertheless slowed. Combined with September’s trade data which showed a fall in manufacturing exports, and Markit’s October PMI which fell to the lowest level …
2nd November 2018
October’s further decline in wage growth is a worrying signal for policymakers, with real wage growth stagnating just as the Bank takes a more hawkish approach to normalising policy. … Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Int. Trade …
Although the pace of growth slipped in August, the small rise GDP was still stronger than indicated by the timelier data. That will encourage policymakers and suggests that the Bank of Canada remains on track to hike interest rates again as soon as …
31st October 2018
As well as hiking interest rates to 1.75% this week, the Bank of Canada explicitly confirmed that it intends to raise the policy rate back to its estimate of the neutral rate. We doubt it will make it that far. … Bank aiming for at least three more …
26th October 2018
By replacing its pledge to raise rates at a “gradual” pace with an indication that it intends to hike by at least as much as, if not more than, markets expect, the Bank of Canada today struck a decisively hawkish note. We think it will follow today’s …
24th October 2018
The third-quarter Business Outlook Survey revealed a rebound in firms’ investment intentions, which is consistent with machinery and equipment investment growth remaining close to 10% y/y. Moreover, the survey was carried out before the US and Canada …
23rd October 2018
After the legalisation of cannabis this week, next week the spotlight turns to the Bank of Canada’s policy rate announcement. The Bank looks set to raise interest rates for the third time this year, to 1.75%. As that hike is widely expected, the key event …
19th October 2018
September’s unexpectedly sharp drop in headline inflation will not prevent the Bank of Canada from following through with a widely-expected rate rise at its meeting next week. But further falls in core inflation would be a risk to our view that the Bank …
The markets are convinced that the Bank of Canada will hike its overnight rate by another 25bp to 1.75% at next week’s policy meeting and it isn’t hard to see why. Economic growth has been solid this year and probably a touch stronger than the Bank’s …
17th October 2018
August’s drop in manufacturing sales was almost entirely due to temporary plant shutdowns in the automotive sector. Sales are therefore likely to rebound in September, particularly with surveys pointing to healthy growth ahead. … Manufacturing Sales …
The Bank of Canada’s latest Business Outlook Survey shows that growing capacity constraints are boosting investment intentions, which will reinforce expectations that the Bank will raise interest rates again at next week’s policy meeting. … Business …
15th October 2018
The steep falls in equities this week are bad enough, but it is the collapse in Canadian oil prices that could have more significant macroeconomic effects. If the capacity constraints that have caused Canadian oil prices to slump are sustained, it would …
12th October 2018
After accelerating in September for the first time in 16 months, house price inflation could rise a touch further in the near term, but there is little hope of anything more than a temporary and partial rebound. … Teranet House Prices …
Based on our forecast for economic growth to slow, there is little prospect of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates by another 100bps over the next year. Even if the economy maintained its recent strong pace of growth, raising interest rates by that …
10th October 2018
The changes to Canada’s trading relationship with the US and Mexico do not, on their own, have big implications for the economy. By removing uncertainty, the agreement will help to keep economic growth at a healthy clip for the next couple of quarters. …
5th October 2018
September’s impressive rebound in employment is another reason to think that the Bank of Canada will pull the trigger on a rate hike later this month. While we think that the current strength of the economy will cause the Bank to follow that with another …
The recent run-up in oil prices, yesterday’s announcement of a new massive LNG project and the coming expansion in the capacity to export crude oil by rail all seem to bode well for energy investment. But uncertainty about future pipeline capacity and the …
3rd October 2018
While the macroeconomic implications of replacing NAFTA with USMCA are minor, the diminished risk of US auto tariffs is good news for the Canadian economy. The effective removal of that threat could see the loonie rise further in the coming weeks and may …
1st October 2018
Comments from US President Donald Trump this week gave little indication that he is about to trigger the six-month NAFTA withdrawal period, but there is a rising risk of the US imposing auto tariffs on Canada, which could turn out to be more damaging than …
28th September 2018
The stronger-than-expected 0.2% m/m rise in GDP in July suggests that annualised growth in the second quarter may turn out to be closer to 2.0% than the 1.5% we had pencilled in. … GDP by Industry …
Households’ debt service costs rose to 14.2% of incomes in the second quarter, the highest since 2008. The recent rise has been driven entirely by higher interest rates. Moreover, policy rate hikes over the past year have yet to fully feed through to …
27th September 2018
Economic growth looks set to remain healthy in the near term, which will prompt the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates twice more. But the Bank is underestimating both the extent to which construction activity will contract and the negative effects …
26th September 2018
The loonie continued to appreciate against the greenback this week, despite there seemingly being little chance of the US and Canada reaching a NAFTA deal before the month-end deadline. Investors appear to be under-pricing the risk of President Donald …
21st September 2018
Headline inflation looks set to continue falling to around 2% by the end of the year, as energy price inflation drops back. But with all three of the Bank of Canada’s core inflation measures picking up in August, the decline in headline inflation is …
The third consecutive rise in Canadian manufacturing sales in July puts the sector on track for a very strong third quarter. Another fall in new orders suggests that growth may be close to a peak, but that could be reversed if a NAFTA deal is reached …
18th September 2018
The NAFTA negotiations between Canada and the US rumbled on this week, with few signs of a breakthrough during what Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland described as a “continuous negotiation”. With the month-end deadline for a deal still two weeks …
14th September 2018
After dropping to a nine-year low in August, house price inflation looks set to rebound in the coming months, but we doubt that turnaround will be sustained. Meanwhile, lower-than-expected capacity utilisation in the second quarter suggests that there is …
12th September 2018
The large build-up in private sector debt over the last decade means that the Canadian economy is far more sensitive to interest rate rises than in the past. This increases the likelihood that the Bank of Canada’s rate hikes could trigger a potentially …
10th September 2018
While the Bank of Canada this week acknowledged the uncertainty created by the ongoing NAFTA negotiations, it also played down the risks of a further deterioration in trade relations. However, given the potential for US President Donald Trump to trigger …
7th September 2018
Although August’s sharp drop in employment simply reversed July’s gain, the concentration of losses in high-wage service jobs and construction is concerning. Coupled with a further slowdown in earnings growth, August’s Labour Force Survey presented few …
While the Bank of Canada left its interest rates unchanged today it appears to be heading for a hike in October, although a serious breakdown in the NAFTA negotiations could result in a last minute delay. … Bank likely to raise interest rates in …
5th September 2018
