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The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has contributed to the recent resilience of oil prices and the fragility of equities. The avoidance of a full-scale ground war in Gaza might calm sentiment a little and any Israeli-US strike on Iran …
19th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US stock market’s post-election hangover continues …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone in recession …
16th November 2012
Bondholders have not lost faith in the Fed’s commitment to low and stable inflation. But that does not mean they should expect healthy returns. … Will bondholders’ faith in the Fed be …
15th November 2012
Expectations of more aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan have weakened the yen, even though there is already little practical difference between its stance and that of the Fed. On balance, we continue to think that demand for a safe haven …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will China’s new leadership have an appetite for reform? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Germany's economy could slide back into recession next year …
14th November 2012
Slower growth in the BRIC economies makes it less likely that their stock markets will outperform those of the major developed economies again after a couple of disappointing years. … Stock market consequences of slower growth in the …
13th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan’s economy slipping back into recession …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Stock market weakness likely to persist through year-end …
12th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB disappoints again …
9th November 2012
We do not expect the result of the US elections to have a lasting impact on the stock market. Neither the tax hikes on investment income proposed by President Obama nor the tax cuts proposed by his defeated Republican challenger are likely to see the …
8th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US elections fail to lift the mood …
The initially limited market reaction to the re-election of President Obama made sense because this was the outcome that had looked most likely. In any event, economic prospects might not have been much different if Mitt Romney had won, especially as …
7th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Focus set to shift in the US from the elections to the "fiscal cliff" …
We expect a weak economy and a partial break-up of EMU to weigh on UK equities through the end of next year – our forecast is that the FTSE 100 will end 2013 around the 5,000 mark. Although we are clearly cautious, one reason we do not expect a bigger …
6th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would a Romney win be unambiguously positive for stocks? …
The conventional wisdom is that investors prefer Republican Presidents, but we would suggest that every election is different. Romney’s plans would tax equities more favourably and lighten the burden of regulation on the energy sector. Nonetheless, the …
5th November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on the US presidential election …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US corporate bonds may lose their shine …
2nd November 2012
The US S&P 500 fell 2% in October as the boost from the anticipation of QE3 faded in the wake of its launch, and worries began to surface about the outlook for profits amid the Q3 earnings season. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield increased a …
1st November 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Boost to dollar-denominated EM bonds from QE3 unlikely to last …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tough times lie ahead for risky assets …
31st October 2012
The boost to risky assets from QE3 may already be over. The prices of equities and commodities have generally fallen since mid-September. And while the ECB brought the euro-zone back from the brink in the summer with a conditional pledge to buy …
30th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation fears to ease as commodity prices drop back …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries rightly shrug off stronger-than-expected US Q3 GDP …
29th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will euro-zone equities continue to outperform? …
26th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Likely bounce in UK GDP flattered by temporary factors …
25th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Early indications due on health of key economies in October …
24th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … World economy still faces many headwinds …
23rd October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still major obstacles to euro-zone banking union …
22nd October 2012
Although we think the yield on 10-year Treasuries will fall back soon from almost its highest level in five months, the medium-term prospects for bonds are far from rosy. Indeed, we think the average annual real return is likely to be negative over the …
19th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Signs of stabilisation in China’s economy …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EU leaders reach a consensus on aid for Spain? …
18th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets still unimpressed by launch of QE3 …
17th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK CPI inflation back below 2%? …
16th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Focus returning to weakness of global economy …
15th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US consumer confidence has probably waned …
12th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to expect from the G7 and IMF meetings... …
11th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brazil's central bank may cut rates …
10th October 2012
The US Q2 earnings season kicks off today. The news is likely to be downbeat, with the annual growth rate of profits reportedly expected to be negative for the first time since 2009. In recent months investors have shrugged off this prospect and sought …
9th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Does the ECB have strong grounds to buy Spanish bonds? …
If Spain applied to the EFSF/ESM for a (partial) sovereign bail-out, the path would become clear for the ECB to buy Spanish government bonds under its Outright Monetary Transmissions (OMT) programme. But given the near 2% drop in 10-year yields since 24th …
8th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US employment report rattles Treasuries and gold …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Draghi talks up the ECB’s OMT programme …
5th October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Draghi shed more light on the ECB's OMT programme? …
4th October 2012
The expectation of QE3 from the Fed provided much of the fuel for the rally in risky assets over the summer. But now that those expectations have been met, signs have begun to emerge that the rally is running out of steam. One example is the recent …
3rd October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Australian dollar set to come under further pressure …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Short covering unlikely to buoy the euro much longer …
2nd October 2012
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke speech to set tone ahead of key US data …
1st October 2012
