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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging market dollar bonds likely to remain under pressure …
25th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renewed weakness in global economy should prolong QE …
24th April 2013
Concerns about the potential impact of the end of quantitative easing ebb and flow, but we remain relatively sanguine. Detailed market forecasts will follow shortly in our quarterly publications, The Capital Markets Analyst and Commodities Analyst. …
23rd April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More life left in the US Treasury market rally …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sell-off in US equities unlikely to turn into a rout …
22nd April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … IMF projections still look too optimistic …
19th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower oil prices to weigh on Russia’s economy and markets …
18th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ZEW survey reveals waning confidence in Germany’s recovery …
17th April 2013
One counter-argument to our view that the scaling back of QE3 would not trigger a rise in US Treasury yields is that "term premiums" would soar. However, the evidence is mixed. … End of QE3 might not trigger a rise in UST term …
16th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold’s slump not supported by fundamentals …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What explains Friday’s sell-off? …
15th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Cypriot crisis far from over …
12th April 2013
The gold market was hit yesterday both by the prospect of an early end to the Fed’s quantitative easing and by speculation that Cyprus could be the first of the troubled euro-zone countries to sell official reserves to ease their financial problems. The …
11th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC minutes refocus attention on role of QE3 …
The conventional wisdom appears to be that 10-year Treasury yields are only likely to remain below 2% if the US central bank maintains its current pace of buying. In fact, the launches of successive bouts of quantitative easing have seen yields rise, …
10th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yields to remain low, with or without Japanese buying …
The more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan has had a major impact on the yen and the relative performance of Japanese equities. But speculation that Japan’s additional monetary easing will have (or is already having) a major impact on …
9th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A cautionary note on Japanese equities …
The much more ambitious policy stance adopted by the Bank of Japan should keep the yen on a weakening trend, but the scope for a further boost to Japan’s stock market may be limited. … More downside for yen than upside for …
8th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A further significant fall in the yen probably lies ahead …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US non-farm payrolls probably registered a healthy gain in March …
5th April 2013
Emerging market assets continued to underperform in March. The "stripped" spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Global Index over Treasuries rose to its highest level since late September 2012, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities dropped by 1% in …
4th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Spring slowdown in the US economy would be no cause for alarm …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US dollar's popularity continues to grow …
3rd April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan unlikely to meet high expectations …
29th March 2013
The two-day meeting of the Bank of Japan’s Policy Board which concludes next Thursday (4th April) will be the first under Haruhiko Kuroda’s leadership. Unfortunately, the markets’ expectations of the new Governor are so high that they will be almost …
28th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Germany’s labour market weathering the euro-zone recession …
We doubt that the US stock market will fare well in the run-up to, and during the early stages of, the next tightening of monetary policy. Admittedly, this would buck the trend since 1970, when, on average, the market peaked after first rate hike. And …
27th March 2013
Although the profit share in the US corporate sector is likely to have remained at a very high level in Q4 2012, we continue to expect margins to be squeezed this year. Further gains in the stock market would then depend on a continued rise in its …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US outperforming as Cyprus uncertainty holds back Europe …
The events in Cyprus provide another very visible – albeit extreme – illustration of the financial problems which are holding back the global recovery. Indeed, even though the Cypriot economy itself is tiny, the ramifications could still be felt …
26th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Divergence of developed and emerging equities grows …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Low market volatility may only be a temporary lull …
25th March 2013
There are several possible explanations for the declines in volatility in financial markets over the last year or so. Some have argued that volatility has simply returned to historical norms. Others have gone further and suggested that volatility might …
22nd March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC in no hurry to taper asset purchases …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … BoE's updated remit should pose no threat to UK gilts …
21st March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Budget should be a fairly gloomy affair …
20th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will there be more contagion from the crisis in Cyprus? …
19th March 2013
The negative reaction in Europe’s financial markets to the decision to "bail in" depositors in Cyprus has been fairly muted so far. Admittedly, the euro fell below $1.30 against the dollar on Monday, banking shares in Spain posted declines of up to 5%, …
18th March 2013
A further escalation of the crisis in tiny Cyprus may have global implications well beyond the immediate market reactions today. It could influence the course of fiscal policy in the UK and monetary policy in the US, sap appetite for the “Abe trade” in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the pound continue to rebound? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't bank on further strong gains in the US stock market …
15th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for emerging market equities? …
14th March 2013
While the recent underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities has been surprising given the strength of developed market (DM) equities, we think it may continue for a while yet. … Is the underperformance of EM equities set to …
13th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices not the only signal of economic fragility …
The divergence between the strength of the prices of equities and the weakness of the prices of industrial metals, including copper, does not necessarily tell us anything new about the sustainability of the stock market rally or the health of the global …
12th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China’s economy may be faltering even sooner than we thought …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US Employment Report gives the dollar a lift …
11th March 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebound in the euro unlikely to last …
8th March 2013
Today’s Flow of Funds report published by the Federal Reserve suggests that the stock market is significantly overvalued by historical standards. We think the degree of overvaluation is much less than meets the eye. However, we suspect that other factors …
7th March 2013
