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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a deal is the tapering of QE3? …
12th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM currencies come under further fire …
11th June 2013
Emerging market currencies have generally been hit hard over the past month, with sentiment further souring in the wake of the latest US FOMC minutes. We think many will remain under pressure this year as concerns about a scaling back of QE build and …
10th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bond market bloodbath unlikely …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese investors continue to sell foreign bonds …
7th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market shows some signs of faltering …
6th June 2013
The markets’ honeymoon with the Abe government has ended, but it seems premature to consider filing for divorce. Indeed, the worst of the correction in the Nikkei may soon be over. … What next for the …
5th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Worst could be over for the Nikkei …
The 10-year Treasury yield leapt by more than 45bp in May, breaching the 2% level. US government bonds were partly undermined by the minutes of the FOMC’s latest meeting, which suggested a number of Fed officials may be willing to trim the pace of the …
4th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Political unrest drives down Turkey's stock market …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US non-farm payrolls should show a solid gain for May …
3rd June 2013
The first estimate of Q1 US corporate profits published yesterday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is another warning sign that the second half of 2013 may be much tougher for equities than the first. … Falling "narrow" profit share a warning sign …
31st May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices to fall further (regardless of OPEC) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to call the turn in global bond yields …
30th May 2013
The recent surges in the yields of US Treasury and Japanese government bonds have led some to ask whether this might be the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Yields should of course rebound to more normal levels, eventually. But we think they are more …
29th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US consumer confidence surges to a five-year high …
Despite the global rally over most of the past month, emerging market equities have continued to underperform developed market equities. We expect this pattern to persist. … EM equities set to underperform …
28th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pace of renminbi appreciation set to slow …
27th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global equities show their dependency on Fed support …
24th May 2013
Today’s slump is not necessarily the end of the bull market in Japanese equities, but the next few months will be much harder going. We continue to expect the Nikkei to fall further, probably below 13,000, before the end of 2013. … Boost to Nikkei from …
23rd May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed Chairman in no rush to taper asset purchases …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s slide unlikely to gather pace …
22nd May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … "A year of two halves" still in prospect for equities …
21st May 2013
Our view from the outset has been that 2013 would be a year of two halves for risky assets, with a strong start eventually giving way to renewed weakness. In the event, while we were correct to be relatively cautious on most commodities, the performance …
20th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … TIPS at a turning point? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global recovery to remain sluggish …
17th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan’s stock market now appears overvalued …
16th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone economy probably shrank again in Q1 …
15th May 2013
The prospect of an extended period of loose monetary policy facilitated by low inflation should provide ongoing support to many emerging market (EM) local currency government bonds. However, we expect policy rates to be slightly higher by the end of 2014 …
14th May 2013
The jump in the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in the last few days probably reflects a confluence of many factors, including speculation that domestic institutions are set to step up their diversification into foreign bonds and local …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen's slide has further to run …
There are three main reasons why further monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing (QE), is likely to benefit equities more than it benefits the prices of industrial commodities, including crude oil and base metals. In summary, industrial …
13th May 2013
The fact that Japanese investors have again started to buy foreign bonds is far from the “game changer” for global financial markets that the recent headlines might suggest. Indeed, it isn’t even such a big deal for the yen. The Japanese currency may well …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G7 finance ministers likely to have stuck to the script …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK trade deficit probably narrowed in March …
10th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC to hold fire for now …
9th May 2013
Last Thursday’s cut in the ECB’s refinancing rate and hints from the central bank’s President that the deposit rate could be reduced below zero have weighed on the euro. But the fall in the exchange rate against the dollar has been quite small and the big …
8th May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors rediscover their appetite for EM equities …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Better-than-expected US Employment Report provides some cheer …
6th May 2013
Although the tone of this week’s FOMC statement suggests the US central bank is unlikely to taper its asset purchases imminently, we still think dollar-denominated emerging market (EM) government bonds are vulnerable to an eventual scaling back of …
3rd May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How healthy is the US labour market? …
The euro rebounded against the US dollar in April. Although expectations of a rate cut from the ECB began to build, Europe’s single currency was supported by a reassessment of how quickly the US FOMC would scale back its asset purchases. The euro was also …
2nd May 2013
The recent slump in the cost of Brent crude can be explained by the fragility of the global economy, without appealing to the influence of industry-specific factors that are more likely to be temporary. … What's behind the weakness in oil …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB poised to cut rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Diminishing appeal of inflation-indexed bonds …
1st May 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weak data add to pressure on ECB to cut rates …
30th April 2013
The failure of the yen to weaken past 100 to the dollar has caused some second thoughts in the markets, but we continue to expect the Japanese currency to fall substantially further. … What next for the …
29th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro more vulnerable to euro-zone crisis flare-up than ECB policy …
We continue to assume that the crisis in the euro-zone will flare up during the second half of this year. And we also think the Fed will scale back its asset purchases during this period, before halting them altogether in the early part of 2014. We …
26th April 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling strengthens on better-than-expected GDP data …
