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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the rally in US equities set to run out of steam? …
25th July 2013
Net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) were significantly negative in June as investors fretted about a change in the Fed’s monetary policy. Although the selling continued in the early part of July, it appears to have subsided in the past week or …
23rd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of mixed signals on Emerging European rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold and sterling benefit from dollar weakness …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … From Detroit to China… …
22nd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Abe-led coalition heading for Upper House majority …
19th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke keeps Fed's options open …
18th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three central banks in focus …
17th July 2013
Our research has consistently emphasised that monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose for several years even after the US Fed ends its asset purchases under QE3. The consensus has now swung around to …
16th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still no sign of rebalancing in China …
We are often asked for examples of bold non-consensus calls that have been proved right. This Update provides a selection from the last few months across a range of our services. The publications referred to are available to clients of the individual …
15th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke has another chance …
Many of the criticisms of the US Fed’s recent communications on monetary policy are, in our view, unfair. However, the difficulty that the media and markets have found in drawing clear conclusions from FOMC statements and Chairman Bernanke’s speeches is …
12th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the post-FOMC minutes respite for Treasuries set to last? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Industrial commodity prices have further to fall …
11th July 2013
Yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have surged since late May, reflecting increases in both underlying US Treasury yields and credit spreads. But while Treasury yields have remained high in recent weeks, credit spreads have …
10th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Earnings are unlikely to provide a boost to the US stock market …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fears of sterling crisis look overdone …
9th July 2013
The recent weakness in the pound against the US dollar has produced the usual flurry of headlines about an imminent sterling crisis. However, while the relative prospects for monetary policy in the US may continue to support the dollar, we don’t expect …
8th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasuries spooked by strong payroll data …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Forward guidance gets the green light …
5th July 2013
One notable development this year has been the poor showing of emerging market equities, which have significantly underperformed developed market equities despite the absence of a major financial or economic crisis. However, we think the worst of the …
4th July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone periphery’s troubles far from over …
The US S&P 500 fell by more than 1% in June in response to growing concerns about the Fed’s policy stance. We forecast the index to end this year at 1,600, which is close to its current level, but project that it will then climb to 1,750 by the end of …
3rd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A cautious Fed should provide some support for Treasuries …
We think the US federal funds rate will have been raised to about 4% by the end of 2017. However, based on a decomposition of the Treasury yield curve, it looks like the bond market is more or less braced for such an outcome already. What’s more, we …
2nd July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US passes first of this week’s “QE3 tapering tests” …
The slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce on Friday forced us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal. Nonetheless, our revised forecasts assume a bit of a bounce in the second half of the year and a slow …
1st July 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Calm after the storm …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK recession deeper than previously thought …
28th June 2013
Japanese investors are perhaps more likely to follow global trends than to lead them, but the Bank of Japan will help keep global monetary conditions loose even when the Fed starts to taper QE3. … How far can the Bank of Japan's QE replace the …
27th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pressure on most LATAM currencies may not relent for long …
The plunge in emerging market equity prices has driven the price/earnings ratios of the MSCI Emerging Asia Index and MSCI EMEA Index down towards their lowest levels since late 2011 and the earlier financial crisis. As a result, they are now much further …
26th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Market turmoil yet to take its toll on US consumer confidence …
There has not been much differentiation between bond markets during the recent US-led sell-off. But over time we expect local economic conditions and domestic monetary policy to play a larger role, allowing UK gilts in particular to outperform. Japanese …
25th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No reason to expect a “bloodbath” in the US Treasury market …
The recent surge in long-term US Treasury yields will certainly have raised a few eyebrows. However, if the Fed’s forthcoming approach to unwinding unconventional monetary policy stimulus bears any resemblance to its strategy in the wake of the …
24th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the worst soon be over for emerging equity markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed to tread cautiously …
21st June 2013
In the light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy and recent improvements in the outlook for the advanced economies, we are revising our bond yield forecasts higher. However, we continue to expect yields to remain relatively low. What’s more, …
20th June 2013
Emerging market equities have come under further pressure today after last night’s FOMC statement. Although the prospect of a tapering of the US central bank’s quantitative easing could continue to bear down on prices, we think the worst of the sell-off …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s really behind the spike in China’s interbank rates? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed likely to refrain from tapering its asset purchases for now …
19th June 2013
Recent data suggest that net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) fell significantly in May and in the first half of June amid renewed concerns about a potential tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases. Although the scaling back of the US central …
18th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Focus on the Fed …
17th June 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed taper fears (mostly) overdone …
14th June 2013
We will be reviewing all our key market forecasts in the coming days, but recent developments have underlined several of the global and regional themes that we have been stressing for some time. … Making sense of the market …
13th June 2013
The rebound in the yen and associated weakness in Japanese equities reflect fears about the outlooks for monetary policy in both Japan and the US. However, these fears look increasingly overdone. … What's behind the rebound in the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US retail sales should have been healthier in May …
We expect the Fed to start tapering its asset purchases around September 2013 and halt them in H1 2014. Given the large amount of Treasuries – not to mention mortgage-backed securities – the central bank has bought since the inception of QE3, who will …
12th June 2013
