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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB likely to announce further easing before the Bank of Japan …
23rd January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … IMF plays catch-up …
22nd January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chinese slowdown set to continue into 2014 …
21st January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK unemployment data unlikely to undermine Gilts …
20th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK retailers likely to have had a poor Christmas on average …
17th January 2014
Dollar-denominated emerging market (EM) government bonds fared badly in 2013. The JP Morgan EMBI+ returned around minus 8%, which was the second worst annual performance since 1998. While we do not expect this year to be as disappointing, we doubt it will …
16th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Little scope for US Treasuries and UK Gilts to rally further …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US pipeline price pressures likely to remain subdued …
15th January 2014
Government bond yields have continued to fall in much of the euro-zone in response to improving economic conditions. Spreads over German Bunds have fallen to multi-year lows in many nations. But investors’ optimism may have swung too far given that the …
14th January 2014
We continue to expect the Fed to taper its asset purchases only gradually and to keep US interest rates on hold near zero until mid-2015. Nonetheless, thereafter we expect the Fed to return rates to more normal levels more quickly than the markets …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK inflation still on course to fall below 2% target …
One explanation for the relatively poor performance of emerging market (EM) equities has been the economic slowdown in many countries. But while supply-side structural reforms are needed to reinvigorate growth, their implementation would not necessarily …
13th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed to continue tapering despite weak US payrolls data …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB’s Draghi lays the groundwork for more policy action …
10th January 2014
An extended period of ultra-loose monetary policy and additional asset purchases by the Bank of Japan should have some (mostly) positive spill-over effects into world markets this year and next. However, we think further monetary easing will mainly …
9th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pressure grows on the ECB to take further action …
As the Fed gradually begins to scale back its monetary stimulus this year, we expect the dollar to rise and government bond yields to continue to drift higher. We also think investors’ appetite for “risky” assets is likely to wane. In general, though, we …
8th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China likely to continue with large-scale currency intervention …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Deflation remains a risk for the euro-zone …
7th January 2014
The fact that the valuation of the US stock market is already high compared to its long-run averages on the cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) measure is a good reason to be wary of forecasting further large gains in equity prices. Nonetheless, the …
6th January 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar likely to strengthen during 2014 …
The onset of Fed tapering has not been the game-changer for bond andequity markets that many had predicted. Indeed, in the weeks following theannouncement, equity prices continued to gain and bond yields in mostmajor markets only rose by around 10bp or …
3rd January 2014
A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we track. Turkey’s dollar-denominated and local currency …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold finds support again at $1,200 per ounce …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets likely to end 2013 on a strong note …
23rd December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets shrug off announcement of Fed tapering …
20th December 2013
Although the timing of the Fed’s decision to taper its asset purchases came as surprise to the majority (although not to us), the announcement has not proved so far to be the turning point for markets that some have suggested. On the contrary, the stock …
19th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the FOMC surprise markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on the FOMC …
18th December 2013
Investors in emerging market assets clearly remain concerned about the consequences of a tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases. EPFR Global data reveal that there were net ETF and mutual fund portfolio outflows from emerging market (EM) bonds in November …
17th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weakness in Japan's stock market unlikely to last …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed taper unlikely to cause a rout in long-term US Treasuries …
16th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for the UK stock market appear favourable …
13th December 2013
Developed market equities have been one of the top-performing asset classes so far this year, but the UK’s FTSE 100 index has lagged well behind its peers. We think a weaker pound and a cyclical rebound in profits will see this pattern reversed over the …
12th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in euro-zone's industrial sector to remain elusive …
We have revised some of our key forecasts for emerging market (EM) bonds and equities. On average, we now expect larger increases in credit spreads and smaller gains in stock prices than before. Our end-2015 projection for the JP Morgan EMBI+ spread is …
11th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury yields unlikely to surge when the Fed tapers …
Emerging market assets have suffered since mid-October from renewed speculation that the US Fed will taper its asset purchases sooner rather than later. Both equities and bonds have sold off over the past month, particularly in Latin America. But the …
10th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … India’s outperformance unlikely to be sustained …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Employment Report likely to prompt December Fed taper …
9th December 2013
Fears that the end of the Fed’s purchases will lead to a further surge in Treasury yields are almost certainly overdone. What’s more, even if long-term interest rates do continue to climb in the US, there is at least some scope for decoupling in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Employment Report could prompt Fed to taper later this month …
6th December 2013
Sterling has been the best performing major currency in recent months, rising from $1.50 in the summer to $1.63 now. Nonetheless, we expect it to come under pressure again before too long and ultimately to reverse its recent gains. … Will sterling’s …
5th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … OPEC production quota already being undermined by Iran and Iraq …
4th December 2013
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Japan in no hurry to ease again …
Sterling has been the best performing major developed market currency over the past few months, appreciating to more than 1.64 dollars, compared to an exchange rate of 1.50 during the summer. The strengthening has been driven by a rise in relative …
3rd December 2013
The Australian dollar was the second-worst performing of the G-10 currencies in November behind the Japanese yen, shedding nearly 4% of its value against the US dollar. We expect the Aussie to remain under pressure and now forecast the currency to fall to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong ISM manufacturing index gives Fed further food for thought …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will US payrolls prompt the Fed to taper later this month? …
2nd December 2013
29th November 2013
