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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar’s rally has further to run …
1st September 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on some of the world’s major central banks …
29th August 2014
The strong performance of emerging market equities over the past month has driven the price/12m forward earnings ratio further above its five-year average. In fact, on this measure, equity valuations in Latin America now look almost as stretched as those …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Time to batten down the hatches again? …
28th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The final frontier? …
27th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US stock market is unlikely to go from strength to strength …
26th August 2014
Although the S&P 500 has broken above 2,000 this week for the first time, we doubt that the stock market will go from strength to strength. For now, we are sticking with our forecast that the index will end next year roughly where it is now. … What next …
The weakness of the euro-zone economy and the persistent threat of deflation should keep German government bond (Bund) yields relatively low. However, any scaling back of fiscal austerity and the adoption of quantitative easing (QE) by the ECB are now …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yellen fails to rock the boat …
22nd August 2014
Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and the prospect of a shift in Fed policy, emerging market equities are on track to outperform developed market equities for the second quarter in a row. Their healthy performance is reflected in renewed demand from …
21st August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone falls further behind US (and UK) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices have further to fall …
20th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Which emerging equity markets are likely to fare better than others? …
If tomorrow’s minutes of the UK Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting reveal that some members voted to raise interest rates earlier this month, short-term Gilt yields may rise and sterling strengthen. But over the next few years, we think that Gilt …
19th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tightening US labour market to weigh on equity prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … German equities much more attractively valued than bonds …
18th August 2014
The sharp decline in the yields of local currency government bonds in developed countries has boosted the relative appeal of those in emerging countries. Admittedly, we expect yields in most developed countries to drift higher in the next few years. But …
15th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the growing gap between DM & EM bond yields …
When comparing sterling’s real effective exchange rate to its ten-year average,the currency appears to be around 12% overvalued – which is the largest degreeof misalignment among the developed market currencies that we track. What’s more, in its latest …
14th August 2014
If the Scottish people voted for independence next month, it would create a lot of uncertainty andprobably weaken investors’ appetite for Gilts, UK equities and sterling. Admittedly, the directeconomic and market consequences would probably be quite …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How would the markets react if Scotland voted to go it alone? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How low can Bund yields go? …
13th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a weaker euro ever provide a boost to euro-zone equities? …
12th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fading inflation concerns help to lower Gilt yields …
11th August 2014
Although developed market equities have performed poorly over the pastmonth, in general we do not expect them to continue to struggle. Europeanequities were the worst performers, dragged down by the escalation of thesituation in Ukraine and some …
8th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fundamentals still encouraging for equities outside the US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s decline has further to run …
7th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower-rated US corporate bonds at risk from higher volatility …
6th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging market credit spreads likely to creep up gradually …
5th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Developed market equities to do well despite rise in volatility …
4th August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A repeat bond market "conundrum" seems unlikely …
1st August 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB still needs to do more to weaken the euro …
31st July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Russian markets likely to struggle as EU prepares further sanctions …
30th July 2014
The yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have been broadly flat over the past month after having declined by over one percentage point between the end of January and the end of June. There has been a small increase in credit …
29th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Data to highlight contrasting fortunes of the US and euro-zone …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets continue to shrug off the gradual shift in Fed policy …
28th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Divergence at heart of the euro-zone to undermine the euro …
25th July 2014
Although purchasing managers surveys for July, released earlier today, suggest that the economicrecovery in the euro-zone as a whole is regaining momentum, they also still show a large gap betweenthe performances of Germany and France. This could spell …
24th July 2014
The crisis in Ukraine is continuing to have very little effect on the financial markets in most other emerging countries, with the notable exception of Russia. In the past month or so, the MSCI Eastern Europe Index (in which Russia’s weighting exceeds …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will most EM equities remain immune to events in Ukraine? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Winners and losers from Fed tightening …
23rd July 2014
The received wisdom is that Fed tightening is bad news for many assets. But in the last three cycles, this was not always the case. Next time around, our view is that the US stock market will shrug off more restrictive monetary policy, while equities …
22nd July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Ten-year German Bund yield unlikely to keep on falling …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Geopolitical risks set to weigh further …
21st July 2014
The relatively muted reaction in the financial markets so far to the latest tragic turn in the crisis inUkraine – as well as the escalation of the conflict in Gaza and the gains by ISIS in Iraq – might suggestthat investor sentiment is largely immune to …
18th July 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a shift in US monetary policy boost the dollar? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will emerging market assets cope with Fed tightening? …
17th July 2014
The rally in the US government bond market this year has coincided with a pick-up in China’s netpurchases of long-term Treasury securities, which some have attributed to intervention to weaken therenminbi. But coincidence does not prove causation and …
Emerging market (EM) assets sold off sharply last year after the former Chairman of the US central bank hinted that unconventional policy stimulus was on borrowed time. But another rout is by no means a foregone conclusion once interest rates begin to …
The persistently low level of Japanese government bond (JGB) yields is not necessarily a sign that“Abenomics” is failing. Indeed, a premature surge in borrowing costs could put the whole project atrisk, given the mountain of public debt. Instead, low …
16th July 2014
