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Canada continues to lead the recovery among the G7 economies after a relatively shallow recession. However, the US is only just behind, despite stumbling in Q1, and looks in better shape. Softness elsewhere may have played some part in keeping US Treasury …
30th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are US profit margins really unsustainably high? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasuries' outperformance of UK Gilts unlikely to last …
29th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB easing likely to have limited impact on Treasury yields …
28th May 2014
Over the past month, the stock market has performed better in Russia than in any other country included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as tensions in Ukraine have eased. But the near-15% rally has not wiped out all of this year’s losses and we …
27th May 2014
It has been suggested that one important factor keeping US Treasury yields low is the prospect of a further loosening of monetary policy by the ECB, including some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE). However, it is more likely that the outlook for …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy recovering from probable contraction in Q1 …
26th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors’ enthusiasm for EM assets may continue to grow …
23rd May 2014
April was the first month in over a year in which there were net inflows into global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging market (EM) assets. Investors’ growing enthusiasm for emerging market equities has seen their underperformance vis-à-vis …
22nd May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yawning current account deficit unlikely to derail sterling …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are share buy-backs losing their power? …
21st May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the rally in euro-zone sovereign credit spreads run its course? …
20th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury yields likely to rebound before too long …
19th May 2014
The euro does not appear to be significantly overvalued despite the ECB’s concerns about its strength. The real effective exchange rate (REER) is equal to its ten-year average and only slightly above its ten-year trend. The euro-zone’s current account …
16th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three compelling reasons for the Bank of Japan to ease further …
Some observers appear to be concerned that the onset of US monetary tightening will drive up long-term Treasury yields via a substantial increase in “term premia”. But a new set of unofficial data, published by staffers at the New York Federal Reserve, …
15th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries unlikely to be undone by surging term premia …
The prospect of a new government delivering economic reform in India has provided a substantial boost to the country’s stock market. Although we are also optimistic that a new government will make more progress than the current one, it will probably …
14th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the S&P 500 go from strength to strength? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will India's stock market continue to outperform? …
13th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for EM dollar-denominated government bonds? …
12th May 2014
The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index has dropped below 300 basis points for the first time in about a year. However, we forecast the spread to rebound as less accommodative US monetary policy ultimately diminishes investors’ appetite for …
9th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB signals further easing …
The cost of corporate equity is much lower than the cost of corporate debt in the US. This is very different to the situation that prevailed during the dot com bubble and is a reason to think that the stock market will not be especially rattled by the …
8th May 2014
One reason to be relatively optimistic about emerging market equities is their low valuation relative to their developed market counterparts. For example, price/12m forward earnings ratios are around their five-year averages in emerging markets, on …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s strengthening against the euro has further to run …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury yields more likely to drift higher than surge …
7th May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed to continue gradual taper despite strong payroll gains …
5th May 2014
In April, major stock indices edged higher in the US and Europe but fell further in Japan. We think equities in the US are likely to struggle as the Fed becomes less accommodative, and our end-2015 forecast for the S&P 500 remains 1,900. We do not believe …
2nd May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets to continue taking shift in Fed policy in their stride …
We forecast a fairly small rise in the 10-year US government bond yield by end-2015 despite a shift in Fed policy. We also think the BoE will raise rates later and more slowly than the US central bank, while both the ECB and the BoJ are likely to ease …
1st May 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong UK growth probably insufficient to prop up sterling …
30th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next in the Ukraine crisis? …
29th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Less accommodative Fed policy to restrain the US stock market …
25th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices could be buffeted by El Niño …
Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected growing concerns about the health of the world’s second …
24th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the renewed enthusiasm for EM Asia equities continue? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will QE be a game-changer for the euro-zone? …
23rd April 2014
The ECB looks increasingly willing to implement some form of explicit quantitative easing (QE) soon. However, the market impacts may be smaller and more varied than widely hoped. … ECB’s QE unlikely to be the panacea that markets …
22nd April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Russia at real risk of recession …
18th April 2014
One reason for the sell-off in the US stock market in the first half of this month appears to have been concern that valuations in the technology sector are stretched. But there is little evidence to corroborate this fear, while claims that the market as …
17th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of China’s GDP data …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB will probably do too little, too late …
16th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Ukraine crisis flares up again …
15th April 2014
Much of the recent pull-back in the US stock market appears to have reflected a concern that valuations in the technology sector are frothy. But we are a long way from the situation that prevailed at the peak of the dot com bubble. In March 2000 – the …
14th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No valuation bubble in the US tech sector …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK Gilts likely to decouple from US Treasuries …
11th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where are global real rates and yields heading? …
10th April 2014
One development that is likely to cap future rises in long-term government bond yields in some of the major advanced economies is the persistence of exceptionally loose monetary policy. But this is more likely to be the case in the euro-zone and Japan …
9th April 2014
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese equities likely to outperform again …
