Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
Despite the prospect of further monetary easing from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), we forecast that the country’s stock market will end this year barely any higher than it is now. On a more positive note, we think the outlook for the government bond …
4th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will further monetary easing in India continue to buoy asset prices? …
The fact that short-dated bond yields are negative in many European countries is often attributed to the prospect of substantial purchases of euro-zone government debt by the ECB under the policy of quantitative easing (QE). However, yields are most …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Aussie dollar still primed to weaken …
3rd March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower interest rates won’t prevent a decline in Chinese equities …
2nd March 2015
After a tough end to last year, emerging market equities have continued to pick up over the past month. Admittedly, they have lagged behind equities in developed markets, which have performed very strongly, but we think there is scope for emerging market …
27th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the Brazilian real? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Little reason to be positive about negative bond yields …
26th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Assessing the relative value of US and euro-zone stock markets …
25th February 2015
Despite the resurgent risk of a Greek exit from the euro-zone, investors have so far remained relatively relaxed about the possible effect on emerging markets. Admittedly, there were further net outflows from global ETF and mutual funds that invest in …
The US stock market has weathered the approach of monetary tightening well and we expect it to continue to do so once the FOMC begins to raise the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, we would be surprised if US equities made further strong gains in 2015. …
24th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the US stock market continue to power ahead? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a foreign hunt for yield provide some support to US Treasuries? …
23rd February 2015
Sterling is one of the only major currencies to have appreciated against the US dollar over the past month. However, we doubt its renewed strength will last. … Will sterling’s renewed strength be …
20th February 2015
Sterling has been one of the few major currencies to appreciate against the US dollar over the past month. As a result the real effective exchange rate is now around 5% above its ten-year average and almost 15% above its ten-year trend. Despite the recent …
19th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s gains are unlikely to be sustained …
Although the latest wranglings over Greece’s short-term financing needs have so far elicited little response from markets outside Greece, this calm may not last. As the German rebuff of Greece’s latest proposal underlines, the risk of Greece leaving the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the underperformance of emerging market equities over? …
18th February 2015
US Treasuries have come under pressure recently amid signs that the labour market is on fire. But while we think the bull market in government bonds may be over, we expect only a slow grind higher in yields as official interest rates begin to rise. … Is …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global markets unprepared for a Greek exit from the euro-zone …
17th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we make of the recent rise in JGB yields? …
16th February 2015
The credit spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has increased sharply since the middle of 2014. However, this reflects specific concerns about a small number of troubled countries, rather than …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil prices likely to continue to rise, but not surge …
13th February 2015
Basel III regulations appear to have increased US banks’ demand for Treasuries and helped to depress yields at the short end of the curve. What’s more, the continued phasing in of the regulations suggests that these effects will persist for some time. … …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in Russian equities following ceasefire set to stall …
12th February 2015
The “stripped” spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global Index, which includes the dollar denominated debt of 61 emerging market governments, is still around 430bp despite falling slightly in recent weeks. This is close to its level at the end of 2003, even …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the bull market in Treasuries over? …
11th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much has investors’ appetite for EM bonds really waned? …
10th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How would the markets react to a Grexit? …
9th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US Employment Report bolsters case for June rate hike …
6th February 2015
While demand for US Treasuries as a “safe haven” may have increased over the past year, we doubt this has contributed significantly to the sharp decline in their yields. Other factors that are also unrelated to expectations for monetary policy have …
5th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the rally in US TIPS? …
Despite the strong performance of equities in the euro-zone so far this year, we think there is more upside for those in Japan. Our end-2015 forecast for the DAX is 11,000, which is barely above its level today, whereas our forecast for the Nikkei 225 is …
4th February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for equities look brighter in Japan than in the euro-zone …
Euro-zone equities have surged since the end of December, with the DAX up nearly 10%. The key driver of returns has been the anticipation and subsequent launch of the ECB’s quantitative easing programme, as well as the adverse effect that this has had on …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the collapse in long-term Gilt yields? …
2nd February 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Scope for further monetary easing in Russia is limited …
30th January 2015
We forecast US Treasury yields to rise only gradually amid the onset of tighter Fed policy, while the yields of governments bonds in many other developed economies should remain very low against the backdrop of exceptionally loose monetary conditions. A …
To what extent have recent declines in US bond market-based measures of inflation expectations been driven by changes in expectations for inflation? This is neither a conundrum nor as stupid a question as it might seem, since there is evidence that the …
29th January 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has there really been a plunge in inflation expectations? …
The “stripped” spread over US Treasuries of the JP Morgan EMBI+ Index of emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds has risen by a further 40bp over the past month to around 4.2%, well above its average of the past ten years. However, we are not …
28th January 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are US corporates an early casualty of global “currency wars”? …
Despite concerns over Greece’s future within the euro-zone, the yields on government bonds in the rest of peripheral and southern Europe have generally remained low and close to those of Germany. This sanguine response reflects a number of factors, …
27th January 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors shrug off Russia’s downgrade by S&P …
While the onset of the ECB’s quantitative easing (QE) is likely to weigh on the euro in time, exchange rates are two sides of a coin, so the fate of the currency will also depend on the prospects for unconventional monetary policy outside the euro-zone. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will QE drive the euro down further? …
26th January 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the euro? …
23rd January 2015
While the ECB’s announcement of a bolder-than-expected programme of quantitative easing (QE) has driven the spreads of troubled sovereign bonds even lower, we are sceptical that this will last given the potential fallout from Sunday’s election in Greece. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets give the thumbs up to the ECB …
22nd January 2015
One development that may have contributed to the rally in US Treasuries, and which seems likely to persist, is demand from overseas in response to rock-bottom bond yields elsewhere in the developed world. This is one of the reasons why we forecast the …
21st January 2015
