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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Could the UK’s election drive sterling lower? …
22nd April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brent to recover a little further, but path to be rocky …
21st April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What explains the underwhelming performance of US equities? …
20th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Greece stepping closer to the exit …
17th April 2015
The latest acts in the Greek tragedy have begun to unsettle financial markets again, although we think there are potentially much bigger moves to come. Indeed, markets still appear to complacent both about the chances of Greek exit from the euro …
Emerging market equities have delivered strong returns in the past month, outperforming their developed market counterparts. A confluence of factors is probably responsible. This includes signs of stabilisation in commodity prices at lower levels, an …
The stock market in the euro-zone is much more attractively valued than in the US based on a comparison of cyclically-adjusted price/earnings (CAPE) ratios. However, its valuation is much less appealing when a comparison of standard price/earnings (PE) …
16th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the UK election give the stock market a nasty shock? …
15th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the rally in emerging market equities continue? …
14th April 2015
We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year Gilt yield in recognition of the fact that monetary policy in the UK is likely to be tightened even more gradually than we had previously anticipated. Our new end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts are 1.75% and …
13th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … New forecasts for UK Gilts …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will gilts weather the election? …
10th April 2015
Historically, the yield of 10-year gilts has sometimes moved immediately upon a surprise election result and over the next six months in response to sweeping reforms of a newly elected government. However, over six months, macroeconomic factors have …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will US monetary policy affect Treasury yields? …
9th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More downside for the yen than for the euro …
8th April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Oil price to rise in spite of Iran deal …
Although Fed tightening could dull investors’ appetite for risk, its onset has not tended to push up the spreads of US corporate bonds over Treasuries much in the past. We expect a similar outcome this time around given the rude health of the US economy. …
3rd April 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What can euro-zone corporate bonds tell us about the effect of QE? …
Russia’s bond market continued to fare well in March. This may have reflected a growing sense that the risk of a financial crisis in the country has passed in the wake of emergency rate hikes late last year and an end to the slump in the price of oil. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Just how strong is the US dollar? …
2nd April 2015
While the anticipation and launch of looser unconventional monetary policy in the euro-zone appears to have depressed the yields of bonds issued by the region’s more troubled governments, the boost now appears to have faded and we are not convinced it …
1st April 2015
The latest surveys continue to suggest that only a minority of investors expect Greece to leave the euro within the next twelve months. Admittedly, the proportion is still significant, which shows that the risk is at least being taken seriously. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What role has the ECB’s QE played in driving down credit spreads? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Cross-border bond investment in the euro-zone – what are the risks? …
31st March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still little sign that the strong US labour market is squeezing margins …
27th March 2015
The performance of the US stock market has varied significantly during the four periods in which the dollar has strengthened considerably since it became a free-floating currency in the early 1970s. This is because the circumstances that gave rise to the …
26th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The dollar and the US stock market – exploring the link …
In February, there was a net flow into global ETF and mutual funds that invest in emerging markets for the month since September. In particular, funds dedicated to investing in equities in Emerging Asia were major beneficiaries. Daily data from stock …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the DAX? …
25th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the strong dollar a threat to EM corporate bonds? …
24th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still plenty of the upside for the US dollar …
23rd March 2015
The last few days have seen a sharp reversal in the tone of commentary on the dollar: speculation about a surge to parity against the euro has been replaced by talk that the broad-based rally is over. Of course, currencies are notoriously volatile and …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong dollar to keep the US stock market in check …
20th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Assessing the impact of Fed policy on the markets …
19th March 2015
Downward revisions to FOMC participants’ projections for the federal funds rate have triggered a significant rally in Treasuries and taken some heat out of the dollar. But our expectation is that the Committee will raise the rate over the next few years …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK election may cause more market turbulence than the Budget …
18th March 2015
The New Zealand dollar’s real effective exchange rate (REER) is currently almost 18% above its average of the past ten years. On this metric it has been one of the most overvalued developed market currencies for nearly three years. This persistent …
17th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the renewed slump in the price of WTI …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Fed tightening reduce the appeal of share buy-backs? …
16th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries still vulnerable to a recalibration of rate expectations …
13th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A snapshot of our views on emerging markets and commodities …
12th March 2015
This note summarises our key calls on major economies and markets, emphasising where we differ from the consensus. In particular, we forecast US interest rates to rise sooner and further than generally anticipated. While we do not expect this to trigger a …
11th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where we differ most from the consensus …
The fall in emerging market currencies since the beginning of this year has picked up pace this month. Two main forces appear to have been at work. First, the depreciation of the euro has led the currencies of countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where next for EM currencies? …
10th March 2015
The yield spreads of 10-year Spanish and Italian government bonds over German Bunds recently fell below 100bp for the first time since 2010. Given their grind lower since the summer of 2012, it is tempting to think that these spreads will continue to …
9th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How low can euro-zone sovereign credit spreads go? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Another strong US Employment Report keeps the pressure on the Fed …
The Swiss franc has depreciated against the euro in the past month, despite the fact that the euro itself has weakened on a trade-weighted basis. This appears to be partly a correction following the sharp appreciation of the franc in the aftermath of the …
6th March 2015
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the tide really turned for the Swiss franc? …
5th March 2015
