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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Jackson Hole likely to focus on longer-term issues …
25th August 2016
Political tensions have re-emerged in a number of frontier market economies in recent weeks, casting a shadow over the economic outlook. The outcome of the recent presidential election in Zambia has been disputed in court by the opposition, resulting in a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM equities find support from lower bond yields? …
24th August 2016
We continue to expect emerging market (EM) equities to rise further in the next couple of years, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy. But the rally has fizzled out in recent days, and we suspect that equities will be more volatile ahead of upcoming …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is this the end of the road for EM equities? …
23rd August 2016
China’s currency continues to weaken and has now fallen by around 7% on a trade-weighted basis this year. But while past episodes of renminbi (RMB) depreciation have rattled global markets, they have taken the latest declines in their stride. We think …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has Brexit “Armageddon” been avoided? …
22nd August 2016
In the last few days there has been a lively debate in the UK media over whether Brexit ‘Armageddon’ has been avoided. Our view is that it is far too early to say for sure and that sterling in particular is still vulnerable to a further reassessment of …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the rally in oil prices? …
19th August 2016
The term premiums of US government bonds – the parts of their yields that do not capture expectations for short-term interest rates – are unusually low. Indeed, according to the estimates of some Fed staffers, the term premium of 10-year Treasuries is …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the renewed slide in the US dollar? …
18th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the yen finally topping out? …
17th August 2016
A sharp increase in the cost of hedging has diminished the appeal of Treasuries to many foreign investors, especially those whose funds are denominated in yen and euros. This is potentially significant because the yields of US government bonds have …
16th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are rising foreign hedging costs a threat to US Treasuries? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will political tensions halt the outperformance of Russian bonds? …
15th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is China’s credit cycle starting to turn? …
12th August 2016
Whereas the collapse in Chinese equity prices sent global markets into meltdown last summer, they have begun to drive the outperformance of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index in recent weeks. A shift in expectations for US monetary policy, or renewed fears …
Yields on emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government and corporate bonds have fallen even further in the past month as ultra-low returns in developed markets have boosted demand for riskier assets. A reassessment of the outlook for Fed policy …
11th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK government bond yields set to remain low …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the jump in US LIBOR? …
10th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling set for further (welcome) declines …
9th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the rally in Brazil’s currency the real deal? …
8th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets take strong payrolls in their stride …
5th August 2016
Further gains in emerging markets (EMs) seem likely as the Fed shies away from hiking rates again and other major central banks loosen monetary policy. But while that may cause some concerns that the rally has gone too far, valuations suggest otherwise. … …
4th August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would looser global monetary conditions push EMs too far? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How would additional easing from the BoE affect UK markets? …
3rd August 2016
The US stock market shrugged off some renewed appreciation of the dollarafter the UK’s vote for Brexit – indeed, the S&P 500 rose to a record high inJuly. However, we expect further strength in the US currency to take some tollon the index, given the …
2nd August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will monetary policy drive the Aussie dollar lower? …
The rally in emerging market (EM) equities has been given another leg up as it has become less likely that the Fed will hike interest rates any time soon, and China’s economy has shown signs of improvement. While these props may begin to crumble before …
1st August 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is behind the latest gains in EM equities? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen still likely to fall back, even if the BoJ is not bold …
29th July 2016
We doubt that spreads on US corporate bonds are set to widen, even though we expect the yields of Treasuries to rise as the Fed tightens policy faster than investors currently anticipate. Past form suggeststhat credit spreads are fairly insensitive to the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the US stock market continue to weather a stronger dollar? …
28th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasuries, corporate bonds and the search for yield …
27th July 2016
While negotiations over the UK’s exit from the EU or a further fall in the Chinese renminbi could rock global markets in the months ahead, we suspect that an abrupt reassessment of the outlook for US monetary policy remains the key risk. Not only do we …
26th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will there be a lasting divergence in UK and US monetary policies? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gulf between Fed and BoJ likely to widen and weigh on the yen …
25th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors shrug off plunge in UK PMI …
22nd July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will corporate bond spreads stay low? …
21st July 2016
Oil prices have been low for some time now, but the past month has brought further evidence that this new reality is starting to hit home in energy-exporting frontier markets. Recently-released data showed that growth in Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB likely to ease policy further soon, if not this month …
20th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We expect long-term Treasury yields to continue to climb …
19th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Poor fundamentals likely to ensure that Turkish lira underperforms …
18th July 2016
In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield recently declined to a record low of about 0.75%. Despite …
15th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Unspectacular growth in China good enough for EM equities …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much longer will corporate profits buoy the US stock market? …
14th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC likely to ease policy despite calm after vote for Brexit …
13th July 2016
Financial markets in the emerging world have sailed through recent headwinds stemming from a continued depreciation of the renminbi and the UK’s vote to leave the European Union. And the rally may not yet be over, given that one consequence of …
12th July 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen/dollar heading back to 110 …
We remain cautiously optimistic about the outlook for Japanese equities. However, this is based on the assumption that ‘conventional’ QE will drag the yen lower again, rather than the financing of additional fiscal stimulus by ‘helicopter money’. … Is …
