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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Increase in US Treasury yields probably has further to run …
6th January 2017
Emerging market (EM) equities face a tricky year, as the Fed tightens policy, Donald Trump takes office and geo-political risks blot the outlook. But while these factors probably rule out a repeat of last year’s stellar gains, relatively low valuations …
5th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will renminbi strength last? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in the Nikkei has further to run …
4th January 2017
The widespread pessimism about the outlook for the UK economy in 2017 seems at odds with the continued gains in UK equity prices. This can partly be explained, of course, by the importance of overseas earnings to many of the companies that make up the …
3rd January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the FTSE telling us about the UK economy? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Currency weakness should buoy equities in Japan and Germany …
22nd December 2016
We are revising up our forecasts for the US dollar against the euro and the yen to reflect our view that the contrast between the policies of the Fed on the one hand and the ECB and the BoJ on the other will be much starker than investors are …
21st December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Turning even more downbeat on the euro and the yen …
Financial markets in frontier oil exporters have performed well over the past month, as oil prices have rallied following the OPEC deal to cut output. Equity markets have perked up. And spreads of dollar-denominated bonds have narrowed, which has …
20th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Some key calls for 2017 and beyond …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to expect from EM equities in 2017 …
19th December 2016
Although the S&P 500 has risen to a record high in the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, we do not think that it is in a bubble. Admittedly, its price/earnings ratio is now about double the long-run average after adjusting for the business cycle. But we …
16th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will a weaker yen continue to propel the Nikkei? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Plenty of reasons to expect US Treasury yields to keep on rising …
15th December 2016
We are revising up our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield for three key reasons. The first relates to the outlook for interest rates. The second relates to compensation for uncertainty. And the third reflects a view about the balance between the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed rock EM currencies? …
14th December 2016
Financial markets in the emerging world have generally stabilised since the initial shock of Donald Trump’s election victory last month. But with Trump yet to take office, investors are likely to remain on edge for some time. … EM markets regain their …
13th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are we bearish enough on US Treasuries? …
The Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past, by being characterised by looser fiscal and tighter monetary policies. With this in mind, how is the performance of the US stock market in the next couple of years likely to compare …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US stock market heading for a re-run of the early 1980s? …
12th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed policy still a risk for EMs …
9th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policy divergence likely to drive the euro down further …
8th December 2016
Although we expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen, we doubt that it will climb as high as it did in the early 1980s. Admittedly, the Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of the past. But any shift in the policy mix is unlikely …
7th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much will the dollar benefit from a shift in the policy mix? …
Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to strengthen, but Treasuries to come under fire. Looking …
6th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM equities remain immune to Italian politics? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian bond market unlikely to enjoy much respite …
5th December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Employment Report doesn’t change the outlook for the Fed …
2nd December 2016
The backstops that have been put in place to hold the euro-zone together could limit extra upward pressure on Italian – and other euro-periphery – government bond yields if voters in Italy reject constitutional reforms in Sunday’s referendum and this …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further depreciation of the renminbi unlikely to rock EM markets …
1st December 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are equities in commodity-exporting EMs ripe for a rally? …
30th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will OPEC fall at the final hurdle? …
29th November 2016
Yields of emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated bonds have risen since the US elections, but are still generally lower than the forward earnings yields of equities. This is one reason why we believe relatively low valuations will ensure that equities …
28th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for Italian government bonds? …
Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively modest and in some cases have already started to …
The Japanese yen remains on course for our long-held forecast of 120 against the dollar next year, which is based largely on our view that the Fed will raise US interest rates more aggressively than most anticipate. This in turn should boost Japanese …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen on course for 120 against the dollar …
25th November 2016
Emerging market currencies have been one of the major casualties of the global sell-off since the November 8th US elections. Some, including the Turkish lira and South African rand, are likely to depreciate further next year. But we think other currencies …
24th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is the US stock market to the strong dollar? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further rise in US bond yields unlikely to blow equities off course …
23rd November 2016
While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. … Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock …
More emerging market (EM) central banks may step in to support their currencies by selling reserve assets if risk appetite takes another turn for the worse. But unless China is forced into aggressive action to protect the renminbi, there is unlikely to be …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trump’s fiscal stimulus won’t be a game-changer for US equities …
22nd November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Boost from infrastructure spending may prove a damp squib …
21st November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will markets continue to take Trump in their stride? …
18th November 2016
Dollar-denominated government bonds have suffered disproportionately during the emerging market sell-off since Donald Trump won the US presidential election. We expect dollar-denominated bonds to continue to underperform equities and currencies. … Will EM …
We think that the resilience of US corporate bonds since Donald Trump won the race to the White House is a sign of things to come, even as the Fed tightens monetary policy significantly. … What next for US corporate …
17th November 2016
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yellen indicates Fed could raise rates “relatively soon” …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Too soon to give up on gold …
16th November 2016
