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Having traded sideways in January, strong economic data and growing anticipation of major tax reform have since driven the S&P 500 higher. Indeed, the index has risen by more than 3% since the start of the month, despite a mildly hawkish Senate testimony …
23rd February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro likely to slide even further …
22nd February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PMIs suggest near-term outlook for equities remains favourable …
21st February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will US equities shrug off a renewed rise in Treasury yields? …
20th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro’s resilience may not last much longer …
17th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will equity markets continue welcoming a more hawkish Fed? …
16th February 2017
While US break-even inflation rates have recently risen, this appears primarily to reflect increased uncertainty about the inflation outlook. As actual expectations for inflation rise and investors reassess the prospects for Fed policy accordingly, US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for UK gilt yields? …
15th February 2017
The latest rise in industrial metals prices has provided a welcome fillip to emerging market equities, which are now at their highest level for more than a year and a half. However, we think that this boost will soon fade, because we expect the prices of …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed likely to raise rates more than expected, but not before June …
14th February 2017
The news that Japanese investors have been selling large amounts of US Treasuries reinforces our view that reduced appetite from overseas investors will play a role in driving up their yields this year. Our end-2017 forecast for the 10-year yield is 3.5%, …
13th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will rising metals prices continue to boost EM equities? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar’s resurgence likely to continue …
10th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there life left in Brazil’s stock market rally? …
9th February 2017
Financial markets in the emerging world have maintained their strong start to the year. But we don’t expect this to be sustained, as the Fed resumes its tightening and geo-political uncertainty persists. … Recent recovery likely to prove a false …
8th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors being complacent about Greece? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Respite for euro-zone peripheral bonds likely to be short-lived …
7th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How are inflation expectations affecting Treasuries and Bunds? …
6th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will commodities continue to underpin EM equities? …
3rd February 2017
The financial markets have been very calm since Donald Trump entered the White House, despite the controversy surrounding his provocative executive orders and tweets. While this probably reflects the fact that the president’s actions so far do not appear …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Spain immune to troubles in France and Italy? …
2nd February 2017
Although emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government bonds yields have fallen during the past two bouts of US monetary tightening, this time around we expect them to rise as aggressive rate hikes by the Fed drive up their “risk-free” components, …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s strength against the dollar is unlikely to last …
1st February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why are the markets so calm? …
31st January 2017
2016 was a bumper year for dollar bond sales from frontier markets and the recent pull-back in US Treasury yields has prompted a number of countries to consider returning to international markets. Last week, Argentina issued US$7bn in dollar bonds in a …
Investors have turned a blind eye to the controversy and chaos that has characterised President Trump’s first ten days in the White House. Such indifference may prove to be complacent. The longer his divisive approach to governing continues, the more …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed, not BoJ, policy likely to be key driver of the yen and Nikkei …
30th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should US shareholders be worried about Trump’s view of Mexico? …
27th January 2017
We expect the dollar to regain the ground it has lost this year and to strengthen further, as interest rates and bond yields in the US climb by more than investors are anticipating. … What does history tell us about interest rates and the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is this the start of a bear market in euro-zone government bonds? …
26th January 2017
Emerging market (EM) dollar-denominated government bonds have made a decent start to the year, regaining some lost ground on their developed market counterparts. But we doubt that this strong performance will last long. We expect President Trump to push …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trump’s tough stance on Mexico set to keep the heat on the peso …
25th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would a large fall in the dollar be justified? …
24th January 2017
The dollar has ceded ground recently amid speculation that the Trump administration will seek to bring it down. Indeed, the new president’s nomination for Secretary of the Treasury has reportedly claimed that the currency is “very, very strong”. We …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US stock market on borrowed time? …
23rd January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will the markets fare under Trump? …
20th January 2017
We expect monetary policy in the US to be tightened by more than investors seem to be anticipating, but agree that in other major developed economies it is likely to remain very loose. With this in mind, we forecast that the dollar will resume its rise …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro probably has much further to fall …
19th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Could Trump get the dollar down? …
18th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We don’t expect the yen’s resurgence to last …
17th January 2017
As commodity prices recovered and fears of a hard landing in China faded, corporate bonds delivered healthy returns in the US and euro-zone last year, and credit spreads narrowed. However, as the bull market in bonds comes to an end, we doubt that spreads …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How sustainable is the recovery in the gold price? …
16th January 2017
We doubt that the rally in emerging market dollar-denominated government bonds will last much longer, as the sell-off in US Treasuries resumes and one-off supportive factors unwind. … Have we got the EMBI …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the bear market in Treasuries back on track? …
13th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the FTSE 100? …
12th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US dollar probably only pausing for breath …
11th January 2017
Financial markets in the emerging world have generally made a bright start to 2017, but we doubt their recent good form will continue given the large amount of uncertainty regarding the global economic and political outlook. … Bright start to 2017 …
10th January 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much further has sterling got to fall? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will European equities outperform their counterparts in the US? …
9th January 2017
After a torrid start to 2016, developed market equities ended the year with a bang. But with a more aggressive Fed tightening cycle than most anticipate, growth in China set to slow and geo-political risks festering in the background, there are plenty of …
6th January 2017
