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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury yields and the dollar likely to peak next year …
4th April 2017
We have revised some of our forecasts for developed market government bonds and exchange rates to take account of current market levels and our latest thinking on monetary policy. We now project a lower peak in yields in the US, higher yields in Europe …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long will the party last for EM equities? …
3rd April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the rebound in the dollar continue? …
31st March 2017
While the comparatively low valuation of EM should ultimately stand them in good stead, we do not expect them to perform any better than their US counterparts this year. Fears of a bubble in the US stock market have resurfaced recently, as its valuation …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Patience could be a virtue for investors in EM equities …
30th March 2017
Yesterday’s surge in the Conference Board’s index of US consumer confidence to a 16-year high of 125.6 is not, in our view, a reason to be positive about the outlook for the stock market. Our end-2017 forecast for the S&P 500 remains 2,300, which is …
29th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are US consumers too confident about the outlook for equities? …
Investors’ attention over the past month has been primarily focussed on the Federal Reserve and the expected number of interest rate hikes in the US this year, but other factors have arguably had a greater influence on frontier financial markets. The …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Article 50 halt the pound’s rise? …
28th March 2017
Emerging market (EM) equities have gained more ground, despite the Trump “reflation” trade in the US stock market faltering. But we doubt that they will continue to perform so well for long. … Will equities in EMs continue to outperform those …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much life is left in the rally in EM equities? …
27th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the future brighter for equities in Europe than in the US? …
24th March 2017
Although our China Activity Proxy suggests that growth in China’s economy has picked up significantly over the past year, we expect growth to slow in the coming quarters as policy support is withdrawn. However, we still think that the MSCI China index – …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the Trump trade over? …
23rd March 2017
The valuations of many assets have rarely been as high as they are now. When they have reached such levels in the past, sharp falls have often followed. This suggests that there is a significant risk of a collapse in prices. … Do stretched valuations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors long, but probably not wrong, on the US dollar …
22nd March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a major correction in asset prices around the corner? …
21st March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is this just another temporary setback for the US dollar? …
20th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the strength of emerging market currencies be sustained? …
17th March 2017
Although Treasury yields have fallen back a bit after this week’s anticipated tightening of US monetary policy, we think that the bear market in bonds will resume soon. If history is a guide, the 10-year yield is likely to peak shortly before the federal …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Twin supports for Euro may not last …
16th March 2017
After raising rates yesterday, we expect the Fed to continue tightening the screws and hike by more than investors are expecting over the next couple of years. However, we think that few emerging market (EM) central banks will follow suit. If we are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed spring any surprises on the markets? …
15th March 2017
We think that the outlook for monetary policy in the US and Japan is consistent with an even stronger dollar against the yen. We are therefore sticking to our forecast that the exchange rate will rise further, from around ¥115/$ now to ¥130/$ by the end …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen likely to fall further against the dollar …
14th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should shareholders be more fearful of the Fed? …
13th March 2017
The strong US Employment Report for February has all but sealed the deal for an interest rate rise at this week’s FOMC meeting. Risky asset markets seem relatively unfazed by the prospect, given how they have reacted as the chances of a March hike have …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risky assets likely to weather future Fed tightening …
10th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sell-off in German Bunds unlikely to gather momentum …
9th March 2017
Emerging market (EM) assets have fared quite well over the past month, despite investors expecting the Fed’s next hike to arrive sooner than they did previously. But we doubt that the resilience of markets will last for long. … Bond markets still …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries remain vulnerable to tighter Fed policy …
8th March 2017
The absence of a further sell-off in the US Treasury market so far this year has called into question our forecast that the 10-year yield will rise by a percentage point during the remainder of 2017. Nonetheless, we continue to think that …
7th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for US government bonds? …
Recent market movements have left the valuations of many assets looking stretched. But emerging market (EM) equities are an exception – their valuations still look low relative to those of EM bonds and developed market equities. Admittedly, the valuations …
The fate of the US stock market tends to be determined by economics rather than by politics. As a result, it should not be surprising that shareholders have shrugged off both Trump’s recent spat with the judiciary and the various malpractices that are …
6th March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will politics eventually take a toll on US equities? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How unusual are late-cycle surges in stock prices? …
3rd March 2017
The valuations of many assets now look stretched in a historical context. For example, the price/earnings ratio of the US stock market is now far above its very long-run average, and the spreads of emerging market (EM) speculative-grade corporate bonds …
The gap between the yields of 10-year government bonds in the US and the UK has grown to its largest level in more than thirty years. Even so, we continue to forecast that it will get bigger. … The underperformance of Treasuries is likely to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gap between Treasury and Gilt yields likely to get even bigger …
2nd March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are high valuations the harbinger of a collapse in asset prices? …
1st March 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The relief rally in US Treasuries is unlikely to last much longer …
28th February 2017
Although US equities have surged and US government bonds have rallied since Donald Trump entered the White House, we don’t expect this pattern to continue. … What next for US equities and …
27th February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are equities ignoring the message in bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Dow’s winning streak soon be over? …
24th February 2017
The recent improvement in the global economic backdrop has been mirrored by a pick-up in growth across frontier markets. National accounts data released by early-reporting frontiers over the past month showed most economies recorded stronger growth in the …
Having lost ground against the dollar in the aftermath of the US elections, emerging market (EM) currencies have staged a recovery since President Trump’s inauguration. Nonetheless, we still expect that most of them will weaken this year. … Rebound in EM …
An overhaul of the US corporate tax code would probably provide a net boost to S&P 500 earnings. Nonetheless, we suspect that it would be small and that it has now been largely discounted in equity prices. For the time being we continue to forecast that …
23rd February 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has the US stock market got too excited about tax reform? …
