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The latest data suggest that, in aggregate, GDP growth in the largest frontier oil-exporting economies has started to pick up. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 3.4% y/y in Q1, the fastest pace of growth since the end of 2014. Meanwhile, the recession in …
26th May 2017
A lot of attention has focussed recently on the possible effect on US government bonds of a reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet. While we expect the reduction to be gradual, we don’t think that it will prevent yields from rising. … US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Opinion polls rattle the sterling bulls …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries vulnerable, even if Fed shrinks its balance sheet slowly …
25th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What does Moody’s downgrade mean for Chinese financial markets? …
24th May 2017
There hasn’t been much action in the Treasury market since yields shot up last November after Donald Trump was elected US president. As is the case for the US stock market, though, low volatility doesn’t necessarily mean that a big correction lies around …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We have revised up our forecasts for the euro …
23rd May 2017
There is a view that a big correction in the US stock market lies around the corner, because volatility is very low. This view has been influenced by the fact that volatility was very low before the financial crisis. Yet volatility was even lower in the …
22nd May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Low volatility doesn’t always herald a collapse in stock prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Real trouble for EM currencies? …
19th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sell-off in EMs unlikely to turn into a widespread rout …
18th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FTSE’s Brexit rally may be nearing its end …
17th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will US equities and the dollar continue to diverge? …
16th May 2017
Emerging market (EM) equities have had another excellent month, with the MSCI EM Index rising 4% to its highest in almost two years. However, we would not be surprised to see it slip back later this year. … EM equities forge ahead …
15th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising oil prices unlikely to derail equities …
We think that the hunt for yield will end soon, as the available return on US Treasuries rises in response to tighter Fed policy than investors are anticipating. This probably wouldn’t result in the prices of “risky” assets falling sharply, given the …
12th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are risky asset prices set to tumble? …
Equities in the euro-zone performed better over the past month than those in the US, amid further good news on the region’s economy and the fading of political risk after France’s presidential election. We expect them to continue to outperform, aided by …
11th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors too relaxed about the outlook for inflation in the US? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK monetary policy outlook suggests Gilt yields are set to rise …
10th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can the Nikkei build on its recent gains? …
9th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lingering risks limit relief to markets from Macron victory …
8th May 2017
Investors breathed a sigh of relief after Emmanuel Macron claimed the largest share of the vote in the first round of the French presidential election, and there is scope for a further rally if, as opinion polls suggest, he wins Sunday’s run-off …
5th May 2017
After rallying at the start of 2017, the gold price has fallen back over the past couple of weeks, as some of the geopolitical risks that had lent it support earlier in the year have subsided. A revision of expectations for further monetary tightening in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is low volatility a sign of trouble ahead? …
4th May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will sterling’s Brexit premium last? …
3rd May 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What are the prospects for euro-zone equities? …
2nd May 2017
Although they have generally appreciated in recent months, few EM currencies appear much stronger than their “fair value”. This feeds into our view that most will hold up fairly well over the next few years. … Is the strength of EM currencies set to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central bank role reversal could yet support the dollar …
28th April 2017
Headlines in the past month have been dominated by local political events in frontier markets. In Venezuela, violent mass protests have swept the country. Meanwhile, the victory of Serbia’s Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic in presidential elections has …
President Trump’s latest proposal for tax reform does not provide us with a reason to alter our forecast that the S&P 500 will end this year lower than it is now, as margins are squeezed by rising wages and a rebound in the dollar. His plans are little …
27th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Nothing phenomenal to buoy US equities in Trump’s “new” tax plan …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … High tide for US equities and bonds? …
26th April 2017
We think that the best days are over for assets in the US, in both absolute and relative terms. For example, we expect bond yields to rise further there than in other developed economies over the next year or so, given the prospects for monetary policy. …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro still defying policy expectations, for now …
25th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in French bonds unlikely to last, even if Macron wins in May …
24th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PMIs bolster case for euro-zone and Japanese equities …
21st April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What does the French presidential election herald for markets? …
20th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US Treasury rally unlikely to last …
19th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling’s election snap …
18th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can Trump keep the dollar down? …
13th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Economics will trump geopolitics before long …
12th April 2017
It has been plain sailing for emerging market (EM) assets again over the past month, with equities and bonds both posting solid gains, and most currencies making more headway against the US dollar. However, we think that the wind will come out of the …
11th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global growth prospects pick up …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen rally on borrowed time …
10th April 2017
We still take a bearish view on Treasuries. This is because we think that the tight US labour market and its knock-on effects on inflation will push the Fed into faster tightening than markets are currently discounting. Admittedly, we have recently …
7th April 2017
The Russian ruble weakened on Friday – despite a jump in oil prices which would usually have supported the currency – following a US missile strike in Syria. (See our Emerging Europe Update, “First thoughts on what the US airstrike in Syria means for …
The US Treasury market has shrugged off the news in the latest FOMC minutes that the Committee may begin to alter its reinvestment policy later this year. Nonetheless, we still expect a reduction in the size of the Fed’s balance sheet to contribute to a …
6th April 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are Treasuries vulnerable to Fed balance sheet shrinkage? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospect of earlier rate hikes likely to lift gilt yields …
5th April 2017
