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In a quiet month for economic news across frontier markets, politics has provided a regular stream of headlines. Investors were buoyed by results from Argentina’s primary elections which showed that support for President Macri’s coalition had held up …
31st August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese yen still likely to weaken …
30th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB may try to temper euro’s rise before long …
29th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yellen soothes markets, but could ruffle Trump …
25th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We don’t think that the rally in US Treasuries will last …
24th August 2017
Although policymakers are unlikely to give very much away, Friday’s Jackson Hole speeches will still be scrutinised for any hints about the timing of ECB “tapering” and Fed balance sheet “normalisation”. Worries about the scaling back of quantitative …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we read into the poor performance of US small-caps? …
23rd August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should EM investors fear the scaling back of QE? …
22nd August 2017
We think that the prospects for German large-cap equities during the remainder of 2017 are quite bright, despite their pull-back over the past two months. Admittedly, we are revising down our end-year forecast for the DAX 30, from 13,500 to 12,750. But …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Germany’s stock market unlikely to keep on falling …
21st August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Respite for S&P 500 unlikely to be a lull in a storm …
18th August 2017
Although China’s holdings of US Treasuries increased by more in June than in any other month in the past six years, we doubt that renewed Chinese buying of Treasuries will keep their yields low in the same way that it arguably did in the mid-2000s. We …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renewed Chinese buying unlikely to keep Treasury yields down …
17th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will globally-focused US firms’ shares continue to outperform? …
16th August 2017
A decade after the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), some are of the view that history may be about to repeat itself, given the similarly-high valuations of equities and corporate bonds in the US. However, the valuation of housing there is …
Credit spreads have risen as tensions between the US and North Korea have flared up. But the increase has been small and they are still low. We think that a downturn in the US economy is a more likely catalyst for a sustained surge in spreads, but do not …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors still hungry for EM dollar bonds …
15th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we make of the rebound in US credit spreads? …
14th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will low inflation continue to support US bonds and equities? …
11th August 2017
The recent escalation of tensions between the US and North Korea has weighed on the S&P 500. But provided that war is avoided, we doubt that this marks the start of a sustained downturn in the index. … Will North Korea tensions continue to weigh on US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the surge in EM Asian equities soon be over? …
10th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a deal is US-North Korea sabre-rattling for markets? …
9th August 2017
Today is the tenth anniversary of the start of the global financial crisis (GFC), which triggered the worst recession since the Great Depression. Some are of the view that history may be about to repeat itself, given similarities in the states of the US …
The latest surge in emerging market (EM) equities has seen the price/12 month forward earnings ratio of the MSCI EM Index climb further above its long-run average. Nonetheless, we still think that valuations are likely to rise at least a little further. … …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is another crisis coming, a decade after the last one began? …
8th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will low inflation keep US Treasury yields anchored? …
7th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar unlikely to recoup a lot more lost ground …
4th August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are high asset valuations here to stay? …
3rd August 2017
We don’t think that the valuations of many risky assets have become unsustainably high. This is because their rise has been supported by a structural decline in real interest rates, which is likely to endure. This decline has cut the prospective return …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outlook for UK monetary policy points to higher Gilt yields …
2nd August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can the euro hold on to its gains? …
1st August 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … When will the rout in the dollar end? …
31st July 2017
The recovery in frontier economies continued over the first half of this year. GDP growth averaged around 2.0% y/y in Q1, twice the rates seen in mid-2016. It would have been stronger still were it not for weakness in the largest frontier market, Saudi …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Technology sector sell-off little cause for alarm …
28th July 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policy outlook bodes well for EM local currency bonds …
27th July 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed give the dollar a lift? …
26th July 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for EM equities and sovereign bonds? …
25th July 2017
US corporate credit spreads surged three years or so ago after falling to the levels that they have approached again recently. Nonetheless, we doubt that history is about to repeat itself. … Will US corporate credit spreads stay …
24th July 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Healthy global growth to continue supporting equities for now …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What accounts for the euro’s latest surge? …
21st July 2017
We expect EM equities to rise this year and next, but not at anything like the pace that they have done so far in 2017. The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has returned around 20% so far this year. But this is nearly all due to a huge rally in stock …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the ECB baulk at euro’s continued rise? …
20th July 2017
Although the yields of government bonds remain very low compared to their averages since the early 1980s (see Chart below), this does not imply that their valuations are still extremely inflated, as some claim. Admittedly, we forecast that yields will …
19th July 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tweaking our forecasts for the Fed, Treasuries and the dollar …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM equity markets continue to soar? …
18th July 2017
The volatility of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has plunged, as the index has climbed steadily to an all-time high in local currency terms. But these developments need not inevitably unwind soon. … Low volatility doesn’t mean EM equities are bound …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Calm in EM equity markets doesn’t mean a storm must follow …
17th July 2017
Government bond yields have risen recently by more in Germany than in some “peripheral” countries of the euro-zone. This has happened even though the sell-off in bonds has been caused by concerns that the ECB will scale back its purchases, from which the …
14th July 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for euro-zone sovereign credit spreads? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen’s rebound is likely to be short-lived …
13th July 2017
