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If the Republican’s proposed tax reforms are enacted, a large proportion of overseas income held by US multinational enterprises (MNEs) could be returned to the US. We anticipate that a sizeable share of this repatriated income would be used for share …
18th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy outlook suggests that the rally in Gilts won’t last …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should investors fear a Taylor-led Fed? …
17th October 2017
This year’s rally in global equities has been driven primarily by an increase in investors’ expectations for corporate earnings. In general, we expect earnings to continue to support equities in 2018. … Will earnings growth continue to buoy global …
16th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a flatter Treasury curve a sign of trouble ahead? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are Treasury investors complacent about the inflation outlook? …
13th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Japan’s stock market remain on a tear? …
12th October 2017
Healthy economic growth is providing ongoing support to equities, which have performed well over the past month. Indeed, the vast majority of the rise in the MSCI World Index of developed market equities so far in 2017 has been due to an increase in …
Although the yields of US Treasuries have rebounded recently, those of emerging market (EM) local currency sovereign bonds have typically increased by less. We suspect that this will continue as Treasury yields climb further in the coming quarters. … EM …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM sovereign bonds continue to outperform Treasuries? …
11th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Pullback in EM currencies probably not a sign of things to come …
10th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a boost from tax reform already discounted in the S&P 500? …
9th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the worst still to come for Treasuries? …
6th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Policy outlook should limit sterling’s slide …
5th October 2017
Corporate America has been masquerading as a major “foreign” investor in US government bonds in recent years. This Focus considers whether its healthy appetite will continue and anchor Treasury yields. … Will Corporate America shore up the Treasury …
4th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors right to be very bearish on Treasuries this time? …
Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has rallied by more than 20% this year, this gain has primarily been driven by expectations of faster earnings growth. As a result, its valuation is no higher than it was at the end of 2016, and remains quite …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Healthy economic growth is buoying global equities …
3rd October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are markets right to shrug off political events in Catalonia? …
2nd October 2017
We do not think that the recent dip in emerging market (EM) currencies and equities signals the start of a larger downturn in their fortunes. … Pull-back in EM equities and currencies unlikely to …
29th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy outlook shouldn’t weigh too heavily on the euro …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Latest pull-back in EM equities should prove temporary …
28th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trump’s tax plan could be bad news for Treasuries …
27th September 2017
The jump in oil prices, from $51pb at the start of September to around $59pb at the time of writing, should provide a fillip to the large frontier oil economies, such as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Kazakhstan. If sustained, we estimate that this would …
26th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recent falls in EM currencies unlikely to be the start of a trend …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets weather German election, but political risk lingers …
25th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Economic strength should continue to support the euro …
22nd September 2017
Risky asset markets took the Fed’s unexpectedly-hawkish tone on Wednesday in their stride. We think that they will remain resilient over the next year and a half or so, even though we forecast that the Fed will hike rates once a quarter between now and …
21st September 2017
US FOMC participants’ median estimate of the level of the federal funds rate in the “longer run” has fallen by 25bp, to a new low of 2.75%. This compares to a median estimate of 4.25% in early 2012. Our view is that such a decline in the longer-run level …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Lower longer-run interest rates underpin higher asset valuations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will Treasury yields react to the Fed? …
20th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Another reason to worry about risky asset valuations? …
19th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … As good as it gets for US equities? …
18th September 2017
We have revised some of our key market forecasts for currencies, bonds and equities, partly because we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target range for the federal funds rate again this year. … Some new market …
15th September 2017
Emerging market (EM) corporate bond spreads are around their lowest since the onset of the global financial crisis. We think that they will remain low for the next year and a half or so – but expect them to rise sharply further ahead. … How vulnerable are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much further will Gilt yields rise? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is the FTSE 100 to tighter UK monetary policy? …
14th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for currencies, bonds and equities? …
13th September 2017
We have revised some of our key market forecasts for currencies, bonds and equities, partly because we no longer expect the FOMC to raise its target range for the federal funds rate again this year. … Some revisions to our key market …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What’s behind the surge in the MSCI China Index? …
12th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the ailing US dollar? …
11th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much Fed tightening is really priced into markets? …
8th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Draghi gives the euro another boost …
7th September 2017
Emerging market (EM) credit spreads ticked down again over the past month and generally appear low by the standards of the past. We think that they will pick up only a little this year and next, but expect them to rise sharply further ahead. … How long …
6th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Draghi talk the euro down? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the end of summer breathe new life into the markets? …
5th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … North Korea crisis to have limited impact on safe havens …
4th September 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yields likely to rise despite underwhelming payrolls …
1st September 2017
In our view, EM assets are likely to weather the gradual tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies this year and next. But the effects of this tightening may start to bite further ahead. … How vulnerable are EM assets to tighter DM monetary …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The renminbi’s rally has much further to run …
31st August 2017
