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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worrying is the recent slide in the MSCI China Index? …
6th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How hard would the collapse of Brexit talks hit sterling? …
5th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is US tax reform a double-edged sword for EM equities? …
4th December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will OPEC’s decision affect financial markets? …
1st December 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would the fallout be from another slump in IT shares? …
30th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What does the future hold for sterling, Gilts and the FTSE 100? …
29th November 2017
For most of this year, the dollar’s value against other “majors” has tracked the gap between 10-year government bond yields in the US and the countries where these other currencies are issued. However, this relationship has broken down over the past …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Some reasons for optimism on UK banks’ shares …
28th November 2017
Even though emerging market (EM) credit spreads are generally very low by past standards, we do not think that a surge is around the corner. … Low EM credit spreads may last a while …
The US stock market has now bounced back from a recent wobble. However, with the S&P 500 around a record high, it is still worth asking when the next significant and sustained correction might materialise, and what impact that would have on stock markets …
27th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We find the dollar’s recent slide mystifying …
Frontier markets have been gripped by political upheaval in recent weeks. In the largest frontier economy, Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (known as MbS) has overseen a high-profile anti-corruption crackdown. Tackling corruption is clearly …
24th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would a setback for the US stock market be contagious? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long until the next big correction in the US stock market? …
23rd November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the bond market telling us about the stock market? …
22nd November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there a bubble in Chinese equities? …
21st November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for Treasuries still look quite bleak …
20th November 2017
We doubt that the fall in the dollar seen in the past few weeks will continue, especially as we think that the Fed will tighten by more than most anticipate next year. … Recent setback for the dollar should prove …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We expect the rally in the dollar to resume before long …
17th November 2017
It is tempting to attribute the 20% surge in the S&P 500 since the US elections last November to the prospect of tax reform. But while this may have played a role, it does not appear to have been the main factor. So if, as seems possible, Congress fails …
16th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tax reform not the be-all and end-all for the S&P 500 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worried should we be about “overvalued” equities? …
15th November 2017
We think that Central and Eastern European (CEE) currencies and the euro will weaken against the dollar next year. But we judge that CEE currencies will fall by less, given the prospects for monetary policy. … Will CEE currencies continue to track the …
14th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will healthy economic growth continue to buoy the euro? …
Risky assets have come under some pressure for the first time since the summer, when they were rattled by rising tensions between the US and North Korea. Nonetheless, we still don’t think that a major sell-off is likely until 2019, given the economic …
13th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the recent sell-off in the markets a sign of things to come? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the rise in US high-yield credit spreads a worrying sign? …
10th November 2017
The recent increase in the price of oil has added further fuel to the rally in emerging market (EM) equities. Although we think that some of this support will unwind as oil prices slip back, we still expect the MSCI EM Index to climb further between now …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How are higher oil prices affecting US bonds and equities? …
9th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the US stock market fall out of love with Trump? …
8th November 2017
The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index of equities set another record high on Tuesday, and is some way above its pre-global financial crisis peak. Although the MSCI Brazil Index – the fifth-largest constituent of the overall index – has fallen back since …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rally in EM equities probably has further to run …
7th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Bunds benefit most from the ECB’s reinvestment policy? …
6th November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risky assets likely to withstand tighter-than-expected Fed policy …
3rd November 2017
Although the valuations of most risky assets have risen further above their long-run averages during the past quarter, we still don’t expect them to come crashing down any time soon. As we argued in the previous edition of The Capital Markets Analyst, we …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling likely to recover, as BoE proves not so dovish after all …
2nd November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets bet on dovish BoE rate hike …
1st November 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will rate expectations continue to boost the US dollar? …
31st October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Price of Brent unlikely to remain above $60 for long …
30th October 2017
Emerging market (EM) assets have prospered this year despite the Fed continuing to raise rates. We think that they will also cope well as unconventional policy from several major central banks becomes less accommodative in the coming quarters. … EM assets …
27th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US GDP growth bolsters case for Fed tightening …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB’s reduction in QE to have limited market impact …
26th October 2017
The raft of GDP data released over the past month or so showed that the recovery in frontier markets strengthened in Q2. According to our GDP-weighted measure of growth, frontier economies expanded by 2.4% y/y in Q2, up from 1.9% y/y in the previous …
25th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Can the ECB pull off a dovish taper? …
We expect the US Treasury yield curve to continue to flatten, as the Fed raises rates further. But we don’t think that the curve will begin to invert – and flag up the risk of a recession – until 2019. … Will the US yield curve continue to …
24th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM assets likely to weather the withdrawal of QE …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors right to be taking events in Catalonia in their stride? …
23rd October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the party in the financial markets remain in full swing? …
20th October 2017
After a big rally earlier in the year, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened against the dollar recently as US rate expectations have picked up. We doubt that much larger falls are around the corner, even though we think that the Fed will hike by …
19th October 2017
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the global upswing in corporate earnings last? …
