Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do rising corporate credit spreads signal trouble ahead? …
19th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We doubt that the recent recovery in Treasuries will last …
16th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the rise in the LIBOR-OIS spread really telling us? …
15th March 2018
Emerging market (EM) credit spreads have stabilised recently after a slight pick-up in early February on the back of the sell-off in global equity markets. But this may just be a temporary respite. In our view, spreads are likely to rise much further over …
We think that the outlook for the US stock market is bleak. But unlike some who share this opinion, our pessimism is not rooted in a belief that the market is grossly overvalued and will inevitably collapse under its own weight. Rather it is rooted in our …
14th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US equities not grossly overvalued, but still vulnerable …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries still vulnerable to rising inflation …
13th March 2018
The S&P 500 has tended to hold up well in the past when the Fed has tightened policy. But it has slid once the tightening has begun to take a toll on the economy. With this in mind, we don’t expect the index to ride high for much longer, despite …
12th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … When will tighter Fed policy undermine the US stock market? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Taking stock of the bull market on its ninth birthday …
9th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary policy unlikely to do much for the dollar …
8th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Korean détente would probably provide little relief for markets …
7th March 2018
The price/forward earnings ratio of the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has fallen back a touch as the index has had a bumpy start to the year. We doubt that valuations will provide any support over the next couple of years, which feeds into our forecast …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar in retreat as fears of global trade war abate …
6th March 2018
The reaction in currency markets to President Trump’s proposed tariffs on steel and aluminium suggests that investors are far more concerned that the duties represent the opening salvo of a trade war – with a potentially severe economic fallout – than …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would the US dollar be a casualty in a trade war? …
5th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian bond spreads could rise after the election …
2nd March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have we seen the last of IT-driven gains in EM equities? …
1st March 2018
Brazil’s stock market has been the best-performing of any major economy this year, soaring by well over 10% despite the turmoil in global equities a few weeks ago. But we suspect that it will come back down to earth again before long as the drivers of the …
The correction in global equities earlier this month coincided with a further rise in US Treasury yields, as higher inflation and the prospect of extra fiscal stimulus led investors to conclude that the Fed will step harder on the brakes. Our forecast …
28th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surge in Brazil’s stock market looks unsustainable …
International bond markets have been inundated with debt issuance from frontier markets over the past couple of years and there’s no sign yet that appetite is waning. Since the start of this year alone Nigeria, Kenya and Argentina have all issued dollar …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Looser fiscal policy means Treasury yields have further to rise …
27th February 2018
The deal done in Congress at the beginning of this month will potentially result in even larger federal budget deficits than those seen during Ronald Reagan’s time as president. This is a key reason why we have decided to revise up our end-2019 forecast …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rebound in EM currencies not likely to be sustained …
26th February 2018
The dollar’s weakness in the face of tighter Fed policy is reminiscent of the mid-2000s. At the time, interest rates and bond yields also moved in favour of the US, but its currency was dragged down by a growing “twin” deficit. Nonetheless, the dollar …
23rd February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasuries are vulnerable to more than just Fed policy …
The recent sell-off in emerging market (EM) equities after the US stock market slumped reiterated how exposed they are to movements in developed market equities. Although EM equities have since recovered a bit, we think that further falls in the S&P 500 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The outlook for EM local currency bonds remains mixed …
22nd February 2018
After a very strong run, EM bonds, equities and currencies have all faltered recently. Although they have since bounced back a bit, we think that their best days are now over. … Are the best days over for EM financial …
The US initially led the recovery in stock markets around the world from their falls of a few weeks ago. But the S&P 500 faltered a bit earlier this week, and we doubt that it will drive global equities higher again in the coming quarters. … Will the …
21st February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Relief rally in US equities will probably falter again soon …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How vulnerable is the dollar to a growing US twin deficit? …
20th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan’s stock market unable to shrug off a strong yen …
19th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are EM local currency bond yields about to rise? …
16th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Would more market turmoil lift the dollar against other majors? …
15th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Any respite for the US stock market likely to be short-lived …
14th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More rate rises than investors expect to drive Gilt yields higher …
13th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Valuations of US equities still look high after correction …
12th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will even looser fiscal policy really be good for US equities? …
9th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Revising our view of the dollar …
8th February 2018
We are abandoning our expectation that the dollar will have a last hurrah this year. We had previously expected it to stage a modest rebound against most other developed market currencies, as the contrast in the monetary policies of the Fed and other …
EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not appear justified by changes in EMs’ fundamentals, and we …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the worst now over? …
7th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … From complacency to gloom? …
6th February 2018
The severity of any further sell-off in global financial markets may be limited by the general health of the global economy and the scope for policymakers to respond if necessary. Nonetheless, the episode supports our repeated warnings that markets were …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a Powell “put” coming? …
5th February 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the US yield curve continue to steepen? …
2nd February 2018
The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era. However, we are not convinced that the latest decline …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have US Treasuries now factored in enough Fed tightening? …
1st February 2018
