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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of April’s mixed US Employment Report? …
4th May 2018
Emerging market (EM) currencies have remained under pressure this week, and we expect most to soften further against the dollar. But, with the exceptions of the Turkish lira and Argentine peso, the fundamentals do not point to very large falls. … Further …
3rd May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM currencies continue to slide? …
More than half of the 80bp rise in the 10-year Treasury yield since last September, to around 3.0% now, can be attributed to inflation compensation. The rest has been guided by a belief that the Fed will tighten policy more aggressively in real terms. …
2nd May 2018
Emerging market (EM) currencies have continued to slip against the dollar, probably in large part due to rising bond yields in the US and a global increase in risk aversion. We suspect that US Treasury yields will climb further this year, and that risk …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the bond market have faith in the Fed? …
We think that after the ECB has ended its asset purchases, bond yields will generally rise only slowly. The biggest increases are likely to come in the periphery, with Italy most at risk of a sharp sell-off. … How will the end of ECB QE affect bond …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Outlook for rates not the only risk for Treasuries …
1st May 2018
The relationships between the dollar’s value against other “majors” and the gaps between expected interest rates in the US and those elsewhere appear to be re-establishing themselves. This has been good news for the greenback in recent months. But if the …
30th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar’s recovery against other “majors” unlikely to last …
Public debt positions across the emerging world have come under scrutiny recently and the risks appear to be concentrated in frontier markets. In aggregate, the debt-to-GDP ratio of frontier governments has risen by almost 15% of GDP over the past five …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Korea summit a big deal, but not for markets …
27th April 2018
In the last edition of The Capital Markets Analyst , we warned that the party in the financial markets might not last much longer. Since then, the US S&P 500 has fallen considerably from a record high. We think that it will remain under pressure, as the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB likely to keep quiet on monetary policy until July …
26th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We don’t expect the US dollar to continue to rebound …
25th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for EM dollar bonds look bleak …
24th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the 10-year US Treasury yield break through 3%? …
23rd April 2018
The recent slumps in three widely-traded emerging market (EM) currencies – the Russian ruble, Turkish lira and Brazilian real – have all partly reversed since last week. But the bigger picture is that the rally in EM currencies more generally appears to …
20th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for EM currencies look poor …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do tougher times lie ahead for the US stock market? …
19th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Softer inflation data unlikely to depress Gilt yields for long …
18th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for China’s economy point to lower bond yields …
17th April 2018
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell from a four-year high of almost 3.0% in late February to only around 2.7% in early April, leading to claims that it had now peaked in this cycle. Yet the yield has since rebounded a bit and we continue to forecast that …
16th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for US government bonds? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A cautionary note to US dollar bears (including us) …
13th April 2018
The FTSE 100 has edged higher over the past month, despite a 5% drop in the S&P 500 and an appreciation of sterling against the dollar. A rise in the exchange rate has typically seen the US index outperform its UK counterpart. So what explains the FTSE …
12th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much of a threat do events in Syria pose to the markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What explains the FTSE 100’s resilience? …
11th April 2018
Although we are not forecasting a recession in the US, we expect the economy there to slow significantly next year and think that this will contribute to a further downturn in the stock market. As a result, we anticipate that cyclical sectors of the S&P …
10th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A downbeat view of cyclical stocks in the US …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Slowing US economy likely to weigh on global equities …
9th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More dollar weakness probably on the way …
6th April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a risk are trade tensions for EM currencies? …
5th April 2018
Bitcoin’s correlation with equity prices has strengthened recently, but we think that this will be just temporary. We still think that Bitcoin is essentially worthless, meaning that it is likely to fare much worse than other assets in the coming months. … …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recent respite for Treasuries not likely to last …
4th April 2018
Aside from equities in the US and China, those in Korea, Taiwan and South Africa appear particularly exposed to a further deterioration in Sino-American trade relations. And IT, consumer discretionary and consumer staples firms may be amongst the most …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Which equity markets are most exposed to more protectionism? …
3rd April 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The economy could be another headwind for the IT sector …
29th March 2018
Equities have had a tough time over the past month, with the information technology (IT) sector in the US hit particularly hard since mid-March. The poor performance of the IT sector cannot be pinned on its valuation, which does not appear to be …
After outperforming for much of the past year or so, the IT sector has led the falls in stock markets in the past couple of weeks. Is a sustained period of underperformance now likely? … Are the IT sector’s best days behind …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the IT sector’s time in the sun over? …
28th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Renminbi probably set for short-term pain, but long-term gain …
27th March 2018
Although US Treasuries might have been expected to benefit from the recent slump in the stock market, the 10-year yield has not changed much. By contrast, the 10-year German Bund yield has fallen sharply. The divergence in these yields can only be partly …
26th March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Treasuries continue to ignore protectionism? …
Most major Emerging Market currencies have fared well over the past month even as concerns of a global trade war have mounted, but a number of those in Frontier Markets have struggled. Indeed, only four out of the 32 frontier currencies that we cover have …
23rd March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Market implications of more protectionism …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for equities poor regardless of the outlook for trade …
22nd March 2018
The spreads of emerging market (EM) sovereign dollar bonds have been edging up since their lows a couple of months ago, and we think that they have further to rise over the next two years. … Will EM credit spreads continue to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How might Treasuries be affected by the FOMC meeting? …
21st March 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Little respite likely for the beleaguered FTSE 100 …
20th March 2018
