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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The FAANGs are not immune to rising trade tensions …
25th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Higher OPEC output to weigh on oil prices later this year …
22nd June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is there more pain to come for EM currencies? …
21st June 2018
Emerging market (EM) equities have been caught up in the more general sell-off in EM assets in the past month, with the MSCI EM Index dropping by about 3% in local currency terms. Even if recent headwinds abate, there are other reasons to think that the …
20th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for sterling? …
Benchmark equity indices in Italy and Spain have outperformed those elsewhere in Europe in the past days. But while the reasons for this may continue, they remain vulnerable to political risks. … Will Italian and Spanish equities remain safe …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Protectionism adds to existing headwinds for EM equities …
19th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How does the renminbi fit into the China-US trade tensions? …
18th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in Italian government bonds not likely to last …
15th June 2018
The recent widespread weakness of emerging market (EM) currencies has been accompanied by a rise in local currency bond yields in almost all EMs. But even if currencies generally continue to slide, as we are anticipating, we still think that yields will …
The movements in dollar/euro over the past few days are a reminder that Fed and ECB policy are still important drivers of the exchange rate. Our view remains that their policies will provide ongoing support for the US currency in the rest of 2018, before …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further downside for the euro is probably limited …
14th June 2018
Surging corporate profits in Japan since the beginning of last year have not generated much excitement among investors. This is probably because most of it has come from sectors that rely heavily on global growth, and it is therefore not seen as …
13th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will the FOMC meeting affect the Treasury market? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising inflation remains a threat to the US Treasury market …
12th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Investors’ complacency about politics may not last …
11th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why aren’t worries about trade doing more for the dollar? …
8th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will core euro-zone government bond yields continue to rise? …
7th June 2018
The information technology (IT) sector of the S&P 500 has been on another tear since late April. Although its valuation is still not stretched and its weighting in the index will probably rise even further over time, we continue to think that it is …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors actually worrying about protectionism? …
6th June 2018
Although investors have become less concerned about the political situation in Italy, we do not expect a significant rebound in Italian equities, which have already come under pressure again this week. … Italian equities unlikely to stage a big …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Tailwinds for the UK stock market becoming headwinds …
5th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We don’t expect the rebound in global equities to continue …
4th June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US employment report bolsters case for tighter Fed policy …
1st June 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Why are global equities shrugging off Italy’s problems? …
31st May 2018
Frontier financial markets have been among the main victims of the recent EM sell-off. The Argentine peso has been by far the worst performing frontier currency, falling by around 17% against the dollar. The central bank was forced to hike interest rates …
We have lowered our end-year forecasts for the yields of 10-year government bonds in the US, Germany and UK, all of which have fallen sharply during the past fortnight as Italy’s political crisis has grown. We have also tempered our projections for …
30th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Some new market forecasts in the wake of Italy’s crisis …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Italian politics rocks the markets …
29th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Have the Treasury bears got it wrong again? …
25th May 2018
The dollar has continued to recover over the past month. This has coincided with a further increase in the gap between 10-year government bond yields in the US and elsewhere. Although this gap began to increase in September 2017, it wasn’t accompanied by …
24th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long will the slide in the euro last? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is another slump in EM equities on the way? …
23rd May 2018
Although the yields of emerging market dollar-denominated corporate bonds have already risen substantially since the start of February, we expect them to climb much further. … Corporate bond yields likely to rise a lot …
22nd May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much worse will it get for corporate bonds? …
We think that interest rates in the US and elsewhere will diverge by more than investors are anticipating over the next year or so, but then converge in a way that they are not envisaging. We expect this contrast in monetary policy to have important …
21st May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Italy’s new government weigh on the euro? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are equity investors right to be relaxed about higher oil prices? …
18th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EM bonds at risk even if the currency weakness abates …
17th May 2018
Emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen sharply on average against the dollar since the middle of last month, and we forecast that they will weaken further between now and the end of next year. … Will the slide in EM currencies …
16th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long will the bear market in US government bonds last? …
Although the 10-year US Treasury yield has already risen substantially so far this year, we continue to forecast that it will end 2018 significantly higher than it is now before dropping back in 2019. … Treasuries are probably set for more pain before …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How will Chinese A-share inclusion affect the MSCI EM Index? …
15th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will US corporate profits really continue to soar? …
14th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More pain for EM assets probably lies ahead …
11th May 2018
The pressure on emerging market (EM) assets that began in late January may have eased slightly in the past day or so. But our forecasts are for further weakness between now and the end of next year, as the two main factors responsible for the slide – …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK FTSE 100: two tailwinds are likely to become headwinds …
10th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EM dollar bond yields continue to surge? …
9th May 2018
Large-cap equities in Europe and Japan have fared far better than those in the US since mid-April. But this seems to have been entirely due to a resurgence of the dollar, which we expect to more than reverse. … European and Japanese equities likely to hit …
8th May 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will European and Japanese equities continue to outperform? …
