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This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of another bleak week for EM equities …
9th November 2018
We think that the global economy will slow in 2019 and take a toll on equities generally. If history is any guide, Swiss stocks will not be spared. But two factors suggest that they will hold up better than most. … Swiss stock market likely to fall less …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed, not Congress, setting the agenda for Treasuries …
8th November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Post-US election rebound in European equities unlikely to last …
7th November 2018
The big rise in the real yields of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) over the past year or so is a logical response to tighter Fed policy than investors were expecting. But it is likely to be partly reversed in 2019, when the central bank …
We don’t expect today’s midterm elections in the US to have a major bearing on its stock market, even if the Republicans retain both chambers of Congress or the Democrats do very well. … US midterms unlikely to trigger a big market …
6th November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What if the prediction markets are wrong about the US midterms? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Shareholders’ concerns about higher Treasury yields make sense …
5th November 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong US employment report bolsters case for December hike …
2nd November 2018
Although the gap between the valuations of equities in emerging and developed markets has widened recently, and is now quite large by historical standards, this is no guarantee that the former will outperform over the next year or so. … Short-term pain, …
Although Italy’s problems are likely to continue to weigh on the euro next year, we still think that the currency will strengthen against the dollar in response to a favourable shift in monetary policy. … Italy’s problems shouldn’t stop euro’s revival in …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rates likely to rise faster than markets expect after a Brexit deal …
1st November 2018
Although some of things that triggered a rebound in the US dollar in October are likely to continue to underpin the currency in 2019, we still think that it will weaken then as the Fed stops raising rates sooner than investors are anticipating in response …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strong S&P 500 earnings growth on borrowed time …
31st October 2018
Although the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities have tumbled compared to those of their developed market (DM) peers, we are not convinced that they will deliver much higher returns over the next year as a result. There is more evidence that they …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Growth concerns finally catching up with US equities …
30th October 2018
While this month’s slump in the US stock market can’t be blamed on bad economic news, it can be attributed – at least in part – to concerns about the prospects for economic growth. We think that these worries are justified and forecast that the S&P 500 …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Optimism following Brazil’s election is likely to fade …
29th October 2018
A handful of the more vulnerable Frontier Markets, including Ukraine, Pakistan and Bahrain, have received (or are close to getting) IMF or bilateral funding, but external risks remain a key concern. For one thing, meeting the conditionality of these …
26th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Treasury yields likely to fall much further …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where to weather another stock market storm …
25th October 2018
Although we expect Italian bonds to remain under pressure over the coming years as the country’s fiscal and economic outlook continues to deteriorate, we think that European bond markets are generally less vulnerable to contagion than during the Greek …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … PMI weakness may not last, but upside for the euro still limited …
24th October 2018
Although October’s EU summit has come and gone without a Brexit deal in place, implied probabilities of a “no deal” do not seem to have increased very much, which is reflected in the resilience of sterling. But with many hurdles to overcome before any …
Even stepping back from the volatility in stock markets around the world this week, global equities have clearly been weakening for a while, and are likely to do so again by the end of next year in our view. Three developments from their recent slump shed …
23rd October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Three key patterns in the latest drop in global equities …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for EM equities poor despite Shanghai Composite surge …
22nd October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surge in US dollar Libor remains a puzzle …
19th October 2018
We think that the S&P 500, Treasury yields and the US dollar will all fall by the end of next year, as a sharp slowdown in the US economy prompts the Fed to stop hiking rates sooner than investors are anticipating. We expect equities outside the US to …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Shanghai Composite likely to head lower again …
18th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Joint rebound in the US stock market and dollar unlikely to last …
17th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold set to shine brighter as economic storm clouds gather …
16th October 2018
Even though emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen a long way against the US dollar in recent months, in most cases their valuations do not yet appear particularly low. This pours cold water on the idea that low valuations will provide significant …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brexit stalemate likely to weigh more heavily on sterling …
15th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surprising EM currency resilience not likely to last …
12th October 2018
Although the Norwegian krone has been one of the best-performing currencies during the past couple of months, we expect it to weaken over the next two years as oil prices fall, economic growth slows, and the Norges Bank ends its tightening cycle sooner …
The 5% drop in the S&P 500 so far this week suggests that investors are starting to factor in the prospect of the US economy slowing in response to tighter monetary policy. We think that this will start to happen in 2019, causing equities in the US and …
11th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equity investors right to fear the effects of rising rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global bond yields unlikely to keep rising sharply …
10th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economy, not oil prices, the key for Treasuries …
9th October 2018
The surge in Italian government bond yields in recent months has brought back to the forefront the vulnerability of the banking sector to falls in bond prices. Given our view that Italian bond yields will continue to trend higher over the coming years and …
Although we have raised some of our bearish forecasts for developed market equities, we still think that they will fall a long way in 2019 as the US economy falters. And while we have also made a couple of tweaks to our projections for currencies and …
8th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Monetary easing doesn’t alter gloomy outlook for China’s equities …
Although the 10-year government bond yield in Italy has already climbed by about 60bp since plans were announced for an EU-defying budget deficit, we think that it will rise by a similar amount between now and the end of next year. If so, the stock market …
5th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US employment report bolsters case for further Fed tightening …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 10-year Treasury yield likely to end next year much lower …
4th October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Reasons to remain gloomy about EM currencies …
3rd October 2018
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Surge in the price of oil likely to go into reverse …
2nd October 2018
Increases in the prices of industrial commodities have helped to drive a rebound in some emerging market (EM) currencies since early September. But that rebound is already showing signs of faltering. We suspect that it will unwind, as commodity prices …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Strength in the loonie likely to be short-lived …
1st October 2018
