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Flash PMIs are likely to suggest that economic recoveries continued in June We expect central banks in Mexico, Turkey, Thailand and Egypt to cut rates next week… …but those in New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Philippines to stand pat Key …
19th June 2020
EU leaders set to discuss the EC’s proposal for a €750bn joint recovery fund (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate to a post-Soviet low of 4.50% (14.00 BST) May UK retail sales data to give first indication of the speed of the …
18th June 2020
While much of the rebound in EM currencies is now probably behind us, we think that many of them will rise a bit further against the US dollar as risky assets generally continue to recover. (See Chart 1.) We have revised up our forecasts for many emerging …
17th June 2020
We think that central banks in Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand will cut their policy rates further The Bank of England is likely to expand its QE programme by £100bn (12.00 BST) US initial jobless claims probably fell further last week (13.30 BST) Key …
While we think that much of the rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies is now behind us, we still expect that most of them will make a bit more headway against the dollar in the second half of the year. Last week we revised down our forecast for the …
16th June 2020
Central bank of Brazil likely to cut its policy rate by 75bp to 2.25% We think that headline inflation fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in the UK last month … (07.00 BST) … and that it remained in negative territory in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Even if …
US retail sales and industrial production probably rebounded in May (13.30 BST & 14.45 BST) We expect the Bank of Japan to expand its lending schemes Central banks in Poland and Chile likely to stand pat on Tuesday Key Market Themes Concerns about a …
15th June 2020
BoE likely to announce more QE, while BoJ may expand its lending programmes We think US retail sales rebounded in May (Tuesday) Fiscal stimulus probably pushed up China’s investment growth in May (Monday) Key Market Themes Neither the Fed ’s latest …
12th June 2020
We now expect that the US dollar will depreciate further as risky assets resume their rebound and the global economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. At the start of the year, we forecast that the dollar would strengthen further in 2020 as …
We expect a 20% m/m drop in UK’s GDP in April (07.00 BST) Euro-zone’s industrial production is likely to have plunged in April (10.00 BST) The University of Michigan consumer confidence index probably continued to rebound in June Key Market Themes We …
11th June 2020
With monetary policy likely to remain loose for a long time and the world’s largest economies gradually re-opening, our view remains that equity markets will continue to make ground over the coming years. Back in March , when global equities were down by …
While sovereign bond yields in most developed markets are unlikely to reach new lows and, in our view, will stay around their current levels for some time, local-currency sovereign bond yields in some emerging markets could yet fall further, especially if …
5th June 2020
Fed likely to strengthen its forward guidance on interest rates (Wednesday) China’s exports probably fell by 2.0% y/y in May (Sunday) We think that Brazil’s headline inflation fell from to 2.4% to just 1.8% in May (Wednesday) Key Market Themes Today’s far …
Germany’s industrial orders for April are likely to have slumped (07.00 BST) US non-farm payrolls probably fell by 9 million in May (13.30 BST) We think that inflation in Russia picked up a bit, but remained below target (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes The …
4th June 2020
We think the ECB will expand its asset purchases under the PEPP (12.45 BST) US jobless claims figures could point to the labour market turning a corner (13.30 BST) Deflation in Switzerland probably deepened in May (07.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
3rd June 2020
We think that the euro-zone’s unemployment rate jumped in April, despite retention schemes Bank of Canada may announce an expansion to its corporate bond purchases (15.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index likely to have bounced back only slightly in May …
2nd June 2020
Strains on the financial system have eased further as central banks have continued to backstop key markets. In our view, their support will remain essential to maintaining that calm and sustaining the recovery in risky assets as economies gradually …
May PMIs likely to show activity is recovering in most economies, albeit slowly (Mon.-Wed.) We expect the ECB to agree a further €500bn of asset purchases and an extension of the PEPP US non-farm payrolls may have fallen by a further 9 million in May …
29th May 2020
Additional stimulus from China strengthens our view that the rebound in equities will continue, especially in emerging markets. But the effect is unlikely to be as big as in 2008-09, and China’s increasingly-tense relationship with the US risks …
We think US real personal spending fell by about 14% m/m in April (13.30 BST) We expect euro-zone headline inflation to have held steady at 0.3% in May (10.00 BST) Japan’s unemployment rate is likely to have risen from 2.5% to 2.8% in April (00.30 BST) …
28th May 2020
The EC’s economic sentiment indicator probably rebounded in May (10.00 BST) We think that policymakers in Poland and Korea will cut their policy rates further US initial jobless claims may have declined to around 2 million last week (13.30 BST) Key Market …
27th May 2020
Although the S&P 500’s rally over the past two months is remarkable, we don’t think that it reflects excessive optimism among investors. In our view, equities can rise further from here. The S&P 500 has risen by over 30% from its intraday low on 23 rd …
European Commission set to publish its proposal for an EU joint fiscal stimulus package The central bank of Korea may launch quantitative easing (Thursday) We think economic sentiment in the US and the euro-zone started to recover in May Key Market Themes …
22nd May 2020
China’s National People’s Congress set to announce 2020 economic targets We think UK retail sales contracted by 30% m/m (07.00 BST) Japan’s headline inflation probably fell to 0.0% in April (00.30 BST) Key Market Themes A lot has been made of the …
21st May 2020
While the rally in developed market (DM) equities has lost some steam over recent weeks, we think that they will make up some further ground in the coming months provided that the global economy starts to recover. We suspect that the stock markets with a …
FOMC meeting minutes to provide further insight into the Fed’s crisis response (19.00 BST) Flash PMIs may indicate what effect the gradual easing of lockdown measures is having We think that Turkey’s central bank will cut rates by a further 50bp (12.00 …
20th May 2020
Although uncertainty about the post-virus prospects for the global economy should continue to support the US dollar, we think that the ongoing recovery in risky assets and the fall in US interest rates will start to pull the currency down from its …
19th May 2020
China’s one-year loan prime rate likely to be lowered by 10bp, to 3.75% (02.30 BST) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably remained depressed in May (15.00 BST) We think UK headline inflation fell below 1% in April (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
Fed Chair Powell to speak before the Senate and in a virtual “Fed Listens” event UK public finances data may give an early indication of the fiscal cost of the pandemic We think that central banks in Turkey, South Africa and Thailand will cut rates …
15th May 2020
We don’t think that the recent outperformance of automakers’ equities will continue, even if the global economy starts to recover and equity markets recoup more of their coronavirus-induced losses. Taking a step back, the performance of auto shares has …
US industrial production and retail sales probably fell by 10-15% m/m in April In contrast, both IP and retail sales are likely to have recovered further in China (03.00 BST) We think Germany’s GDP contracted by 2% q/q in the first quarter (07.00 BST) Key …
14th May 2020
US initial jobless claims data likely to highlight that unemployment is still rising (13.30 BST) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut its policy rate by 100bp to 5.0% (19.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate is likely to have risen from 5.2% to …
13th May 2020
While EM assets, especially in Latin America and EMEA, have been among the worst hit by the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, we think that they will regain some of the ground lost over the past few months. But even then, we expect that most will end …
UK Government is providing further details on its roadmap for reopening the economy We think that headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in both the US and China in April India’s industrial production is likely to have slumped in March (13.00 BST) …
11th May 2020
We think US non-farm payrolls fell by a record 22.5 million in April (13.30 BST) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut it policy rate by 100bp to 5.0% (Thursday 14 th ) German GDP is likely to have contracted by 2.0% q/q in Q1 (Friday 15 th ) Key …
7th May 2020
We think US initial jobless declined further last week (13.30 BST) The Bank of England may extend its QE programme (12.00 BST) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 15% y/y in April Key Market Themes A lot has been made of the divergence between the …
6th May 2020
Conditions in money markets have continued to ease gradually as central banks have expanded their backstop measures. In our view, extensive support from policymakers will remain a key factor underpinning the markets for both safe and risky assets for the …
Brazil’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.25% We think that euro-zone retail sales slumped at a double-digit pace in March (10.00 BST) US ADP employment probably dropped by more than 20 million in April (14.15 BST) Key Market …
5th May 2020
Even though some economies in Latin America and EMEA are still struggling to contain coronavirus outbreaks and are likely to recover only slowly afterwards, we doubt that their equities will continue to underperform if conditions in the global economy …
After slashing rates to 0.25% and launching QE in March, the RBA will probably stand pat Inflation in Switzerland is likely to have fallen further into negative territory in April We think that the US ISM non-manufacturing index plunged to a record low of …
4th May 2020
We think US non-farm payrolls fell by a record 20-25 million in April (Friday) April PMIs are likely to confirm that lockdowns are weighing heavily on activity (Wednesday) We expect the central bank of Brazil to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 3.25% …
1st May 2020
While we remain of the view that the ECB will eventually step up to the plate and increase its purchases of government bonds, concerns about Italy’s debt sustainability and its commitment to the euro mean that we think that the BTP-Bund spread will only …
ECB unveils more generous TLTRO terms, but will not increase its asset purchases yet Colombia’s central bank likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.25%, later on Thursday The US ISM manufacturing index probably plunged in April (Friday, 15.00 BST) …
30th April 2020
We forecast further gains in most risky assets between now and the end of next year. This reflects our expectation of a rebound in economic activity starting in the second half of 2020, alongside the continuation of massive monetary and fiscal policy …
Fed may hint at scope to expand support programmes if needed (19.00 BST) China’s official PMIs likely to point to continued recovery in the economy (02.00 BST) We think that the ECB will increase the size of its PEPP to put a lid on peripheral bond …
29th April 2020
Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator probably slumped in April (10.00 BST) We think that US GDP contracted by about 3.5% annualised in Q1 (13.30 BST) Fed may hint at scope to expand support programmes if needed (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes Earnings …
28th April 2020
We expect the BoJ to cut its policy rate by 10bp, to -0.20% (Tuesday) ECB likely to expand its asset purchases, while the Fed and Riksbank leave policy unchanged China’s official PMIs will probably point to further recovery, but at a slow pace (Thursday) …
24th April 2020
Ifo’s Business Climate Indicator for Germany is all but certain to have plunged in April We expect Russia’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp (11.30 BST) US durable goods orders may have dropped by 15% m/m in March (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
23rd April 2020
We suspect that banks’ share prices will rebound a bit from here, after falling a long way. Nonetheless, we don’t think that banks will outperform other sectors significantly, or for long, even if the global economy starts to recover and equity markets …
Flash PMIs likely to show that economic activity in DMs weakened even further in April US initial jobless claims probably remained extremely high last week (13.30 BST) We think that Korean GDP fell by about 3.0% q/q in the first quarter (00.00 BST) Key …
22nd April 2020
