Filtered by Subscriptions: Bonds & Equities Use setting Bonds & Equities
While we think the US dollar will weaken a bit further this year, suggestions that its role as the world’s primary reserve currency is in jeopardy are wide of the mark in our view. Although it has stabilised a bit over the past couple of weeks, the dollar …
19th August 2020
We think that UK CPI inflation fell from +0.6% in June to +0.5% in July (07.00 BST) Bank Indonesia is likely to hold its policy rate for now, but resume easing later in the year Track the latest high-frequency data on COVID-19 cases and economic …
18th August 2020
We think that the central banks in Norway, Turkey and Indonesia will keep rates on hold … … but expect further easing in Sri Lanka and the Philippines (Thu.) The Fed minutes may show that policymakers are considering additional QE (Wed.) Key Market Themes …
14th August 2020
We think that China’s economic recovery gathered pace in July (03.00 BST) US retail sales may have risen above pre-pandemic levels last month (13.30 BST) We suspect that Colombia’s GDP contracted by almost 15% in Q2 (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
13th August 2020
Although we still think that “risky” assets will make further ground between now and the end of 2022, we no longer expect “safe” government bond yields to rise. We have also become more positive on the prospects for bonds in the euro-zone periphery . Back …
12th August 2020
US jobless claims probably increased by 1,000,000 last week (13.30 BST) We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate by 50bp to 4.50% (19.00 BST) In contrast, Peru’s central bank is likely to stand pat, but may hint that QE is coming Key …
UK GDP is likely to have risen by around 7.5% m/m in June (07.00 BST) Industrial production in the euro-zone probably rebounded further in June (10.00 BST) We think that US CPI inflation fell to 0.3% in July (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes While a limited …
11th August 2020
The UK unemployment rate is likely to have risen in June (07.00 BST) US producer prices figures may suggest disinflationary pressures are easing (13.30 BST) We think that Russia’s GDP fell by almost 10% y/y in Q2 (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes We think …
10th August 2020
The UK economy probably rebounded in June (Wednesday) Mexico’s central bank likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp (Thursday) We think that US retail sales and industrial production rose strongly in July (Friday) Key Market Themes Today’s US Employment …
7th August 2020
While risky assets have already rebounded a long way since their lows in March, we think that they will generally make further ground over the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. That view is underpinned by our forecast that the global economy will …
We think US non-farm payrolls increased by 1 million in July (13.30 BST) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 4.0% y/y in July Headline inflation in Brazil probably rose slightly last month, from 3.3% to 3.4% (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
6th August 2020
The Bank of England is unlikely to announce further stimulus measures (07.00 BST) We think that Brazil’s central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.00% We expect GDP in the Philippines to have fallen by 18% y/y in Q2 (09.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
5th August 2020
Argentina and Ecuador’s swift debt restructuring deals may provide a blueprint for other debt-distressed sovereigns. But these deals are not quite the success stories they seem at first sight. In any case, no two restructurings are ever alike, and other …
Euro-zone retail sales probably rose close to pre-pandemic levels in June (09.00 BST) ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey likely to point to a slowing recovery in the US (15.00 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to cut its policy rate, but the Bank of Thailand …
4th August 2020
July PMI surveys will probably point to a continued recovery in much of the world We expect a one million gain in US non-farm payrolls in July (Friday) Brazil’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday) Key Market Themes We suspect …
31st July 2020
Policymakers in a few emerging markets have turned to unconventional monetary policies to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, and some may go further into outright financial repression . This note sets out some of the potential …
GDP figures to reveal the extent of the slump in activity in Q2 in the US, Germany & Mexico Euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator likely to have risen further in July (10.00 BST) Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer probably rebounded sharply in July …
29th July 2020
Fed may strengthen its forward guidance at its upcoming meeting (19.00 BST) Consumer credit in the UK likely to have fallen in June (09.30 BST) We think Hong Kong’s GDP contracted by 2% q/q in Q2 (09.30 BST) Key Market Themes It is hard to envisage much …
28th July 2020
Fed may strengthen its forward guidance at its upcoming meeting (Wednesday) GDP figures to reveal the extent of the downturn in the US & Germany in Q2 We expect China’s official PMIs to have risen further in July (Friday) Key Market Themes While we …
24th July 2020
Over the past few months, the euro and the BTP-Bund spread have moved closely together, with the euro strengthening as the BTP-Bund spread narrowed and vice versa. (See Chart 1.) We think that this pattern will persist over the remainder of this year . …
UK retail sales likely to have rebounded strongly in June (07.00 BST) Flash PMIs to provide insight on the pace of the recovery in the US in July (14.45 BST) We expect the central bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25% (11.30 BST) Key …
23rd July 2020
US Senate Banking Committee due to vote on nominees to the Fed’s Board of Governors We think that Japan’s manufacturing and services PMIs both rose this month (01.30 BST) Inflation in Canada probably climbed out of negative territory in June (13.30 BST) …
21st July 2020
Although the US dollar has stabilised over the past month or so as fears about a second wave have held back the rebound in risky assets, we continue to think that it will lose further ground over the rest of 2020, unless the resurgence of new cases …
20th July 2020
US Congress set to start negotiating a new fiscal support package Euro-zone flash PMIs likely to point to a further recovery in activity in July (Friday) We expect the central bank of Russia to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.25% (Friday) Key Market …
17th July 2020
We don’t think that the valuations of equities in general are particularly stretched. In any case, valuations are like pieces of elastic – they can stretch a lot before they snap. In our view, valuations won’t prevent equities from gaining more ground, …
We think that US housing starts rose sharply in June (13.30 BST) Rising virus case numbers may have weighed on US consumer confidence in July (15.00 BST) Track the latest high-frequency data on the impact of coronavirus here Key Market Themes Failure by …
16th July 2020
While the valuations of emerging market (EM) equities look high relative to their past levels we don’t think that this will necessarily prevent them from rising further, provided that the continued spread of the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t derail the …
15th July 2020
ECB to leave its policy setting unchanged but reiterate that it is willing to do more (12.45 BST) We think that US retail sales rose by 5.3% m/m in June (13.30 BST) China’s GDP probably expanded by 3.0% y/y in Q2 (03.00 BST) Key Market Themes Yesterday’s …
A handful of frontier market governments have issued Eurobonds over the past few months, but these could create vulnerabilities further down the line, particularly in Egypt, Ukraine and Bahrain. Moreover, many frontiers remain locked out of global capital …
14th July 2020
China’s import data are likely to point to stronger domestic demand in June Activity in the UK and Euro-zone probably rebounded in May (07.00 BST & 10.00 BST) We think core consumer prices in the US ticked up last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
13th July 2020
Global economic and market analysis from Capital Economics We think that the BoC, the BoJ, Bank of Korea and the ECB will stand pat (Wed. & Thu.) … … but expect the central bank of Indonesia to cut its policy rate by another 25bp (Thu.) Spending & …
10th July 2020
Despite talk of a bubble in “risky” assets, we do not think that their valuations are particularly stretched and will prevent them from gaining further ground over coming months . As the prices of risky assets have continued to recover over the past few …
We think employment in Canada increased by an above-consensus 1m in June (13.30 BST) Brazil’s headline inflation likely to have risen from 1.9% to 2.2% in June (13.00 BST) We expect US producer prices to have rebounded in June (13.30 BST) Key Market …
9th July 2020
Eurogroup meeting could provide further details on the EU’s €750bn recovery fund We think that China’s inflation ticked up in June (02.30 BST) US initial jobless claim figures may suggest the economic recovery is losing steam (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
8th July 2020
While we remain optimistic about the outlook for equities and other risky assets, the rapid increase in new coronavirus cases, especially in the US, poses a key downside risk to our generally optimistic forecasts. As we set out here , our forecasts for …
News that a major US shale oil producer filed for bankruptcy last week has raised concerns about a new wave of coronavirus-induced corporate defaults. But even if the default rate does pick up in the coming months, we don’t think this will prevent credit …
7th July 2020
UK government set to announce further fiscal stimulus measures Russia’s headline inflation likely to have risen from 3.0% to about 3.3% in June (17.00 BST) We think Norway’s GDP rebounded by 10% m/m in May (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes The yield of …
We expect the composite PMIs for Spain & Italy to have rebounded in June… … and the euro-zone composite PMI to be revised up from its flash estimate (09.00 BST) Turkey’s headline inflation probably edged up from 11.4% to 11.5% in June (08.00 BST) Key …
2nd July 2020
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by 5 million in June (13.30 BST) The euro-zone unemployment rate probably rose from 7.3% to 7.6% in May (10.00 BST) We expect Swiss core inflation to have remained in negative territory last month (07.30 BST) Key …
1st July 2020
Sweden’s Riksbank likely to stand pat on Wednesday, but cut rates later this year (07.30 BST) The ISM manufacturing survey will probably point to a strong rebound in June (15.00 BST) The Fed’s June minutes may give further clues on yield curve control …
30th June 2020
We continue to think that central bank backstops make a re-run of the March panic in financial markets unlikely, a key assumption underpinning our view that “risky” assets will recover further ground in the second half of 2020. While equity markets have …
China’s official PMIs will probably show that infrastructure construction accelerated We think that US consumer confidence rebounded in June (15.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate to 2.25% (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes The …
29th June 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
While the euro and many euro-zone assets have rallied significantly over the past two months, we think that there is scope for them to make more headway this year . To recap, during this period the euro has gained ground against the US dollar and is now …
26th June 2020
We think that real personal spending in the US increased by 12% m/m in May (13.30 BST) ECB data to reveal whether bank lending growth in the E-Z continued to rise in May (9.00 BST) We expect Mexico’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp to 5.00% …
25th June 2020
We think that central banks in Turkey, Egypt and Mexico will cut rates further … … but expect monetary policymakers in the Philippines to remain on hold (09.00 BST) US equipment investment may have started to rebound in May (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
24th June 2020
With monetary policy likely to remain loose for a very long time and the world’s largest economies gradually re-opening, we think that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will continue to recover from their pandemic-induced Q1 slump. To reflect this, we …
The odds that Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, and that the Democrats also win full control of Congress, have risen recently. While we expect US equities to fare reasonably well over the next few years regardless of the result of the …
22nd June 2020
We think that the Markit Flash PMIs will show a marked improvement from May … … especially in the US where we forecast both PMIs to be above 50 Hungary’s central bank is likely to stand pat for now, but more easing is coming in our view Key Market Themes …
If we are right that commodity prices will make up more ground as economies continue to reopen, the rally in commodity currencies may have further to go. Australia, Canada, New Zealand and Norway are heavily reliant on exports of commodities (see Chart …
19th June 2020
