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We think that Singapore’s GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 (01.00 BST) Bank of Korea unlikely to change policy, with second COVID-19 wave fading (02.00 BST) Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up in August (10.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the …
13th October 2020
Some measures of valuation and risk-taking in Chinese equities have approached levels last seen prior to their crash in 2015. We think another crash is unlikely, but doubt equities will make much more headway in local currency terms. To recap, over a …
We think that China’s trade surplus grew in September (Tuesday) US CPI inflation probably rose in September (Tuesday) US retail sales and industrial production likely to have recovered further last month (Friday) Key Market Themes Investors’ recent …
9th October 2020
We think that UK GDP rose by about 5.0% m/m in August (07.00 BST) Canada’s unemployment rate probably fell below 10% in September (13.30 BST) Brazil’s headline inflation likely to have risen to around 3.2% last month (13.00 BST) Key Market Themes EM Asia …
8th October 2020
The yield of the EMBI Europe has risen since June and we doubt that it will fall back much over the coming year if geopolitical tensions involving Turkey and Russia persist . The yield of JP Morgan’s EMBI Europe Index (EMBI Europe) of emerging European …
We have revised up our already-bullish forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar over the next few years, to reflect changes to our outlook for the Chinese renminbi. Crucially, though, this view hinges on …
Although the SNB meets the US Treasury’s criteria for a “currency manipulator”, we doubt this would deter it from intervening further in the foreign exchange market if required to keep the franc stable. New data detailing the SNB’s FX transactions confirm …
7th October 2020
Industrial production in Germany probably increased in August (07.00 BST) The Fed’s September minutes may clarify its forward guidance (19.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to leave its policy rate on hold Key Market Themes If the recent rise in the …
6th October 2020
We expect a surprise rate cut from Australia’s central bank to 0.10% (01.30 BST) The US trade deficit probably grew in August (13.30 BST) Russia’s inflation may have ticked up in September (17.00 BST) Key Market Themes The resilience of the US stock …
5th October 2020
We expect the RBA to cut its policy rate and launch a second round of QE (Tuesday) The US trade deficit probably widened further (Tuesday) We think that UK GDP rose by around 5.0% in August (Friday) Key Market Themes The negative reaction in equity …
2nd October 2020
Euro-zone core inflation probably fell in September (11:00 BST) Brazil’s industrial production data likely to show the country’s recovery is slowing (13:00 BST) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 800,000 in September (13:30 BST) Key Market …
1st October 2020
Recent moves by Angola and Zambia to restructure their public debts (or seek to) are unlikely to act as a trigger for a wave of similar steps by other debt-distressed frontiers. Indeed, their experience highlights the difficulties of reaching agreements …
30th September 2020
PMIs likely to show that most major economies continued to recover in September … … but rising case numbers in parts of Europe pose a threat to the economic outlook there We expect the Philippines’ central bank to resume its easing cycle after a pause …
In this Update , we consider the near-term outlooks for the yen, Japanese equities and government bonds under new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga , and compare them with their performance in the early years of the tenure of his predecessor, Shinzo Abe. Abe …
29th September 2020
Although the Norwegian krone has been the worst performing G10 currency so far in 2020 (see Chart 1), we expect it to make up some lost ground in 2021 even if it falls a bit more in the near term. The US dollar rose sharply against most other G10 …
We expect GDP data to highlight the resilience of Vietnam’s economy this year (03.00 BST) UK consumer credit probably grew strongly in August, but that may not last (09.30 BST) Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator likely to have risen further in …
28th September 2020
China’s PMIs will probably show growth in the services sector slowing (Wednesday) The UK’s savings rate may have reached a record high in Q2 (Wednesday) We expect euro-zone inflation to have fallen close to zero in September (Friday) Key Market Themes On …
25th September 2020
Despite falling back a little this week, we still expect most currencies in the Asia-Pacific region to make headway against the dollar over the next couple of years, led by a stronger renminbi. As we set out here , we have changed our view on the Chinese …
Despite the sell-off in most emerging market currencies over the past week, we continue to think that most will strengthen against the US dollar as the global economy recovers. In particular, we have recently revised up our forecasts for the Chinese …
24th September 2020
The central bank of Mexico is likely to cut its policy rate later on Thursday (19.00 BST) We also expect policymakers in Colombia to cut interest rates on Friday (21.00 BST) The ECB may reduce interest rates on TLTROs as early as next month Key Market …
Germany’s Ifo Survey may have risen in September (09.00 BST) We think central banks in Switzerland and Norway will stand pat (08.30 & 09.00 BST)… …but expect Mexico’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
23rd September 2020
BoE’s Bailey may provide hints about when negative rates would be used in the UK Euro-zone consumer confidence probably declined in September (15.00 BST) Rising coronavirus cases across Europe likely to trigger tighter restrictions Key Market Themes …
21st September 2020
While we continue to forecast that equity markets will make further ground in the next few years, the rapid increase in COVID-19 cases in Europe poses a downside risk to our projections. We have been arguing for a while that with the major economies …
We expect flash PMIs to show the euro-zone’s economic recovery slowing this month Policymakers in Mexico and Colombia likely to cuts rates at their forthcoming meetings … … while the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden and Turkey stand pat Key Market …
18th September 2020
Inflation in Japan probably fell further last month (00:30 BST) We expect UK retail sales to have risen slightly last month (07:00 BST) Surprise interest rate cut may be on the cards in Russia (11:30 BST) Key Market Themes Gilt yields have declined …
17th September 2020
Although policymakers in Japan may prefer a weaker yen, in our view it is more likely to rise than to fall. When Japan’s retiring prime minister Shinzo Abe came to power in late 2012, one of the key aspects of his “Abenomics” economic package was the …
The renminbi has risen 5% against the US dollar since May, to its strongest since early 2019. And with China on course for a more pronounced recovery than elsewhere, its external position the strongest in a decade, and onshore yields unusually attractive …
While we continue to forecast that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will make further ground over the next couple of years, the rapid increase in new coronavirus cases in Europe poses a downside risk to our generally optimistic forecasts. As we set …
16th September 2020
UK CPI inflation may have fallen in negative territory in August (07.00 BST) Fed’s updated projections likely to underline that rates will not rise for years (19.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank will probably keep its policy rate on hold (22.00 BST) Key …
15th September 2020
US industrial production likely to have increased only marginally in August (14.15 BST) We think that the unemployment rate in the UK was unchanged at 3.9% in July (07.00 BST) China’s retail sales probably rose above pre-pandemic levels last month (03.00 …
14th September 2020
The FOMC will probably make only limited changes to its forward guidance (Thursday) Bank of Japan likely to keep its policy settings unchanged (Thursday) Russia’s central bank may surprise with an interest rate cut (Friday) Key Market Themes The recent …
11th September 2020
Despite the recent resurgence in uncertainty about the UK's future relationship with the EU, we think that it is still possible to make a positive case for UK assets. Although uncertainty around the Brexit process has re-emerged in the past few days, it …
Despite its recent rally, the euro is not particularly strong in our view, and we think that it could well rise further over the next couple of years. Since its lows in mid-March, the euro has gained about 10% against the US dollar, rising from $/€1.06 to …
Peru’s central bank is likely to keep its policy rate on hold (00.00 BST) We expect US CPI data to show another strong rise in prices in August (13.30 BST) Track the latest high-frequency data on COVID-19 cases and economic recoveries here Key Market …
10th September 2020
Malaysia’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate further (08.00 BST) We expect the ECB to maintain its current policy stance (12.45 BST) Political developments in the UK could damage trade negotiations with the EU Key Market Themes While the …
9th September 2020
US fiscal negotiations resume but chances of a bipartisan deal remain slim for now Inflation in China probably slowed in August (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the US …
8th September 2020
8 th round of UK-EU post-Brexit trade talks due to commence (Mon.) US fiscal negotiations set to resume as lawmakers return from August recess (Tue.) ECB likely to deliver a dovish message, but keep its policy settings unchanged (Thu.) Key Market Themes …
4th September 2020
The dislocations in financial markets caused by the coronavirus shock have now largely disappeared and, while there may be further bouts of volatility as the global economy continues to recover (such as yesterday’s sell-off in US tech stocks), our view …
We think that the ISM non-manufacturing index was broadly stable last month (15.00 BST) We expect euro-zone retail sales to have risen marginally in July (10.00 BST) Turkey’s headline inflation probably edged up in August (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
2nd September 2020
Front runners to replace Shinzo Abe signal policy continuity in Japan Chile’s central bank may announce government bond purchases later on Monday The US ADP employment report might be a poor guide to the official BLS figures (13.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
1st September 2020
We think that Japan’s retail sales and industrial production recovered further in July (Monday) Chile’s central bank may announce government bond purchases (Tuesday) We suspect that US non-farm payrolls rose by one million in August (Friday) Key Market …
28th August 2020
While we think that nominal interest rates and bond yields in developed markets will remain around their current ultra-low levels for some time, we think that their real counterparts will fall further in the US relative to the euro-zone and Japan. In our …
BoE Governor Andrew Baily to speak at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium (14.05 BST) We expect real personal spending in the US to have rebounded further in July (13.30 BST) We think the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator rose only marginally in August …
27th August 2020
Chair Powell may hint at changes to the Fed’s policy framework in his Jackson Hole speech Switzerland’s economy probably contracted by 8% q/q in Q2 (06.45 BST) We think that the Bank of Korea will announce more unconventional policy measures Key Market …
26th August 2020
We think that the recent outperformance in local-currency terms of the MSCI EM Index relative to the MSCI World Index of developed market (DM) equities will continue as the global economy recovers further. (See Chart 1.) Back in April , when stock markets …
25th August 2020
US Republican National Convention begins today Germany’s Ifo survey likely to point to a slowing economic recovery (Tue., 09.00 BST) We think Hungary’s central bank will keep its base rate on hold at 0.60% (Tue., 13.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
24th August 2020
Q2 GDP data likely to show that Switzerland and the Nordics got off comparatively lightly Powell’s Jackson Hole speech could flag up changes to the Fed’s strategy & goals (Thu.) We think that the Bank of Korea will announce new unconventional policy …
21st August 2020
We forecast that developed market (DM) “risky” assets will make further ground over the next couple of years as the global economy continues to recover from the coronavirus shock and both monetary and fiscal policy remain extremely accommodative. Both the …
We suspect that the coronavirus-induced local-currency underperformance of MSCI’s Japan and Switzerland indices relative to its USA Index will unwind as the world slowly gets back to normal. To recap, after falling by less in the wake of the coronavirus …
20th August 2020
Fed minutes likely may hint at shift towards average inflation targeting (Wed., 19.00 BST) We do not anticipate a cut to China’s loan prime rate (Thu., 02.30 BST) Central banks in the Philippines and Sri Lanka will probably cut their policy rates by 50bp …
19th August 2020
