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Brazil GDP data likely to show the economy was only 3.5% smaller than pre-virus in Q3 We think that the US ISM services index dropped back in November (14.45 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
2nd December 2020
The unemployment rate in the euro-zone probably edged up in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the November ADP report to show US employment growth slowing (13.15 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
1st December 2020
The RBA looks set to leave monetary policy on hold tomorrow (03.30 GMT) We think Swiss and Canadian GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The euro has risen to its highest level …
30th November 2020
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep policy unchanged (Tuesday) We think that Brazil’s economy rebounded strongly in Q3 (Thursday) Spread of COVID-19 probably meant smaller gains in November’s non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market Themes Given this …
27th November 2020
Equities and bonds in emerging markets (EMs) rallied sharply on the vaccine news earlier this month, particularly outside of Asia. We think they will continue to fare well as the global economy recovers. The reaction of EM assets to the vaccine news …
Lighter UK restrictions from 2 nd December unlikely to improve economic outlook much Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator probably fell in November (10.00 GMT) ECB minutes reiterate that more easing is likely in December Key Market Themes Although this …
26th November 2020
Minutes from the ECB could indicate its plans for the upcoming December meeting … … while we expect the Riksbank will increase the size of its QE programme (08.30 GMT) US markets are closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving Day holiday Key Market Themes We …
25th November 2020
We continue to think that stock markets will make further headway against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy, as investors increasingly focus on the rollout of effective vaccines rather than on rising …
The UK’s OBR may revise down its economic forecasts (13.00 GMT) US durable goods orders probably continued to recover in October… (13.30 GMT) … but we suspect consumption didn’t hold up quite as well (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although the US dollar …
24th November 2020
We think Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator fell in November (09:00 GMT) US consumer confidence may have declined further this month as well (15:00 GMT) Mid-month data likely to show inflation in Brazil and Mexico around 4% Key Market Themes We …
23rd November 2020
Zambia became the first African government to default during the current crisis and debt risks are high in several other Frontier Markets, including Ghana and Kenya. The G20’s recently-announced ‘Common Framework’ to provide debt relief is a step in the …
Although India’s economy has struggled more than most in the COVID-19 pandemic, its equity market has performed relatively well lately. We expect the contrast between the economy and the equity market in India to continue over the next couple of years. …
20th November 2020
We have revised up our forecast for the euro against the US dollar, as we expect that conditions driving the euro’s appreciation will persist over the next few years despite near-term headwinds. The euro has appreciated more than 10% against the greenback …
More easing likely from central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines after rate cuts today We think that UK retail sales growth slowed prior to November’s lockdown (07.00 GMT) EZ consumer confidence probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
19th November 2020
After underperforming the MSCI USA Index for most of 2020, the MSCI Japan Index has started to outperform it in recent days. Provided COVID-19 is brought under control in most major economies, we think that this trend will continue over next couple of …
US initial jobless claims probably continued their gradual decline last week (13.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will appease investors with a 450bp rate hike (11.00 GMT)… …but expect central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines to cut rates …
18th November 2020
We suspect that UK CPI inflation remained around 0.5% in October (07.00 GMT) GDP data likely to show Chile’s economy on the road to recovery (11.30 GMT) US housing starts probably rose again in October (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Long-term inflation …
17th November 2020
GDP data likely to show that Norway’s economy bounced back strongly in Q3 (07:00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its policy rate unchanged (13:00 GMT) US retail sales probably made further gains in October (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
16th November 2020
We think that Japan’s GDP rebounded more strongly than consensus expects (Sun.) US retail sales and industrial production will probably show further gains in October (Tue.) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike rates in order to stabilise the lira …
13th November 2020
We continue to think that risky assets will gain more ground and that the US dollar will weaken against a backdrop of a recovering global economy and continued accommodative monetary policy. In our view, the outcome of the recent US elections and the news …
UK GDP growth probably slowed in September (07.00 GMT) We think policymakers in Egypt and Peru will keep interest rates on hold… … but we expect Mexico’s central bank to cut rates (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While emerging market (EM) currencies have …
11th November 2020
We think that the RBNZ will pave the way for negative rates next year (01.00 GMT) Korea’s export values probably rose further above their pre-crisis levels in early November ECB’s Forum may reveal policymakers’ thinking about the impact of an early …
10th November 2020
All major news outlets have called the US presidential election for Joe Biden Chinese inflation for October may show a significant decline (01:30 GMT) We think there were significant job losses in the UK in September (07:00 GMT) Key Market Themes Most “ …
9th November 2020
We expect the RBNZ to announce a lending programme to prepare for negative rates (Wed.) UK GDP data will probably show the recovery slowed even before new restrictions (Thu.) We think slowing inflation in India & Mexico will raise prospects of more easing …
6th November 2020
While there could still be more twists and turns to come after this week’s elections in the US, in general we expect equities there to outperform Treasuries between voting day and the end of 2022. The S&P 500 has risen significantly since voting day, even …
US presidential election hinges on outstanding results in a few key states We doubt that the Fed will announce any major policy changes (19.00 GMT) … … but expect the Bank of England to expand QE, with more to come in 2021 (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
4th November 2020
While the final results are yet to be determined, whoever wins the US presidency probably faces continued gridlock in Congress. That may explain why the moves in markets overall so far have been limited. Admittedly, Treasury yields have fallen as the …
We think that composite PMIs in Spain and Italy fell in October (08.15 & 08.45 GMT) We expect the ISM Services Index to have remained strong in October (15.00 GMT) The results of the US elections are expected on Wednesday Key Market Themes Unlike after …
3rd November 2020
Democrats lead in the polls ahead of Tuesday’s vote Central banks of Australia and Malaysia both likely to provide more policy support Switzerland’s inflation probably remained negative in October (07.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Treasury yields may rise …
2nd November 2020
While equity markets have fallen sharply over the past two weeks amid worries about the resurgence of new coronavirus cases in Europe and the US, there is little sign of the widespread market dislocations that accompanied the global spread of the pandemic …
We think that the Swedish krona will appreciate a little further against the euro and the dollar in 2021, but doubt that it will remain one of the best-performing G10 currencies, as it has been this year. The Swedish krona has been the …
Although uncertainty about the US election result might temporarily support the dollar, we expect it will continue to decline over the next few years given our forecast for loose fiscal and monetary policy. The ~5% rise in the dollar following the 2016 …
30th October 2020
Euro-zone Q3 GDP figures already old news with the risk of another contraction in Q4 rising US personal income likely to have edged lower as fiscal transfers lessened (12:30 GMT) Hong Kong’s economy probably returned to growth for the first time in a year …
29th October 2020
As the election campaign draws to a close, this Focus looks at how it has affected equity, bond, and currency markets so far and assesses how different outcomes could shift them after Election Day. This election campaign has already had greater impact on …
France and Germany to announce further restrictions to activity US GDP probably rose by 30% annualised in Q3, but recovery likely to have slowed since We think that the ECB will signal that more monetary stimulus is coming (12.45 GMT) Key Market Themes …
28th October 2020
It is looking increasingly likely that the Brazilian government will violate its constitutional spending cap, or at least the spirit of it. While this could lead to some ructions in the real and Brazil’s bond market, we think its equity market should …
South Africa’s inflation probably still near the bottom of central bank target range (09.00 BST) Bank of Canada likely to sound dovish, may outline options if outlook worsens (14.00 BST) Brazil’s central bank will probably keep policy rate at record low …
27th October 2020
Hopes for more debt relief for distressed EMs have been dampened in recent weeks. This Frontier Markets Monthly looks at why we are now at an impasse, the role of China, which EMs need help most, and how things might play out from here. What’s the current …
External demand probably helped Korea’s economy to rebound in Q3 (Mon., 22.00 GMT) We suspect that US durable goods orders dropped back in September (Tue., 12.30 GMT) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on economies and markets here Key Market …
26th October 2020
US GDP probably rebounded strongly in Q3 (Thursday) We think that the ECB will provide further support for the euro-zone economy (Thursday) China’s leaders will meet to discuss the next Five-Year Plan in the coming week Key Market Themes The fact that …
23rd October 2020
We are sticking to our forecast that the 10-year German government bond (Bund) yield will end this year at around -0.50%, even though it has recently fallen through this level following a renewed surge in COVID-19 cases in Europe. To recap, the yield of …
22nd October 2020
We expect that Turkey’s central bank will its policy rates on hold (12.00 BST) Surge in COVID-19 cases may have weighed on euro-zone consumer confidence (15.00 BST) US Presidential election in focus as Trump and Biden face off in a final debate Key Market …
21st October 2020
We expect Korean trade data to show continued strong demand for electronics (01:00 BST) We think that UK inflation picked up in September (07:00 BST) Canadian retail sales growth probably accelerated a bit in August (13:30 BST) Key Market Themes The past …
20th October 2020
The loan prime rate in China is likely to remain unchanged at 3.85% (09.30 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave its base policy rate on hold (13.00 BST) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic and market impact here Key Market Themes We …
19th October 2020
We are upgrading our already above-consensus forecast for the Canadian dollar, as we expect higher oil prices, stronger-than-expected GDP growth, and favourable interest rate differentials to drive a continued appreciation over the next two years. Those …
Activity data likely to highlight the strength of China’s economic recovery (Mon.) Biden and Trump set to face each other in final Presidential debate (Thu.) October PMIs to shed light on the economic impact of the rise in virus cases in Europe (Fri.) Key …
16th October 2020
While sovereign dollar bond spreads in many emerging markets (EMs) are quite high by past standards, we think this is largely justified by the deterioration in fiscal positions caused by the coronavirus crisis . The stripped spreads of JP Morgans’s EMBI …
Outlook for UK and euro-zone economies worsens as new restrictions are put in place Euro-zone inflation data to shed some light on core rate fall in September (10.00 BST) US retail sales & industrial production likely to confirm that the pace of activity …
15th October 2020
We expect consumer prices in China fell due to lower food prices (02.30 BST) US jobless claims likely to show elevated level of layoffs (13.30 BST) Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic and market impact here Key Market Themes While the S&P 500 is …
14th October 2020
While the S&P 500 is now above its pre-pandemic level, and US investment-grade corporate bond yields are even lower, we do not think that the valuations of “risky” assets in the US or elsewhere are unsustainably high. In fact, we expect equities and …
13th October 2020
