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We think that the UK’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in November (07.00 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Nigeria to leave interest rates on hold Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes …
25th January 2021
While we have revised up our end-2021 forecasts for the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar against the US dollar to reflect the strength of their recent rallies, we still think that the Kiwi will outperform the Aussie over the next couple of …
We expect Fed Chair Powell to push back on talk of tapering at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting Survey data will probably point to the euro-zone economy struggling in January Central banks in Hungary, Chile and Colombia all likely to keep rates on hold Key Market …
22nd January 2021
While the yield of ten-year Italian government bonds has risen recently, we continue to expect it to fall back by end-2021 thanks to ECB support and a benign domestic and global backdrop . To recap, there appear to be three main reasons behind the ~20bp …
UK public finances data will probably show a rising deficit for December (07.00 GMT) We expect restrictions continued to weigh on euro-zone and UK flash PMIs (09.00 GMT) Similarly, US flash PMIs will provide a gauge for how the recovery there is faring …
21st January 2021
Focus to turn to the prospects for more fiscal support after Biden’s inauguration Australia’s unemployment rate probably declined in December (09.00 GMT) ECB unlikely to tweak policy again just yet, despite weak inflation data (12.45 GMT) Key Market …
20th January 2021
Fiscal negotiations in the US to get underway following Biden’s inauguration Bank of Canada likely to keep its policy rate on hold and upgrade its forecasts (15.00 GMT) Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key …
19th January 2021
The valuations of Chinese equities have risen considerably over the past few months. But we don’t think that they are yet in a big bubble that is bound to burst soon. Admittedly, the forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio for the CSI 300, one of the benchmark …
Although several factors could conceivably support the dollar in the near term, we still think it will weaken overall this year as Fed policy remains accommodative and appetite for risk continues to grow. The first factor that could potentially drive the …
US fiscal policy in the limelight as Biden inauguration nears ECB survey likely to show euro-zone banks became more cautious about lending in Q4 Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes While the …
18th January 2021
Although Treasury inflation compensation – i.e. gaps between the nominal yields of conventional Treasuries and the real yields of TIPS with comparable maturities – has risen sharply since the spring, we don’t think this will prompt less accommodative …
15th January 2021
We estimate that the UK’s November lockdown reduced GDP by about 8% m/m (07.00 GMT) US retail sales probably fell in December as virus restrictions took their toll… (13.30 GMT) … but we think that industrial production held up better (14.15 GMT) Key …
14th January 2021
Despite signs of exuberance in a few markets, we don’t think that we are in the late stages of a bubble in “risky” assets generally. Provided vaccines enable the gradual relaxation of coronavirus restrictions around the world, we continue to forecast that …
China’s trade data likely to point to a moderation in foreign demand Chair Powell could shed light on how the Fed would react to a stronger rebound in activity President-elect Joe Biden is set to unveil more details of his fiscal stimulus plans Key Market …
13th January 2021
Although Chinese equities have bounced back a bit so far in 2021, they have still underperformed those elsewhere since the news on vaccine efficacy in late 2020. We expect further underperformance this year. There was a stark contrast in the relative …
Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up further in November (10:00 GMT) We think US CPI inflation remained subdued in December (13:30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated page Key Market Themes …
12th January 2021
Brazil’s inflation probably remained above the central bank’s target last month (12.00 GMT) We expect a drop in India’s inflation to pave the way for further interest rate cuts (12.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts …
11th January 2021
US headline CPI inflation probably ticked up in December (Wednesday) We think that UK GDP fell by 8% in November due to lockdown restrictions (Friday) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated page Key Market Themes …
8th January 2021
Despite the jump in US Treasury yields this week following the Georgia Senate run-off election results, we continue to think that the Fed will keep them from rising much further this year. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen above 1% for the first time …
We expect both the Swedish krona and the Norwegian krone to appreciate against the euro and the dollar in 2021. However, in contrast to 2020, we expect the NOK to outperform the SEK slightly this year. The fortunes of the Swedish krona and Norwegian krone …
7th January 2021
Industrial production in Germany probably rose despite renewed lockdowns (07.00 GMT) The unemployment rate in the euro-zone may have edged up to 8.5% (10.00 GMT) We expect US employment in December dropped for the first time since April (13.30 GMT) Key …
We think inflation in Mexico fell a little last month, paving the way for more monetary easing ISM services index likely to add to evidence that the US economy is slowing (15.00 GMT) You can track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine …
6th January 2021
Risky assets have continued to rally even as the near-term economic picture has turned a bit gloomier, but we do not think this reflects excessive optimism. Indeed, we think risky assets could rally further still. To recap, notwithstanding some wobbles on …
New UK lockdown imposed, but we still expect a strong economic recovery later in 2021 We think that Italy’s composite PMI rose in December as restrictions were eased (08.45 GMT) FOMC minutes may shed light on the Fed’s plans for large-scale asset …
5th January 2021
Headline inflation in Switzerland likely to have remained negative in December (07.30 GMT) We doubt that US Senate runoff election results will substantially alter the policy outlook ISM manufacturing index probably dropped back last month (15.00 GMT) Key …
4th January 2021
Emerging market (EM) Asian equities have performed well compared with those in other EMs when coronavirus concerns have worsened this year, but we suspect any further deterioration in the virus situation would not provide the same support. To recap, EM …
22nd December 2020
We think that most risky assets will make further gains next year as policymakers continue to anchor safe bond yields around their current levels and the US dollar weakens further. After a pandemic-driven rollercoaster of a year in financial markets, …
Monthly UK gov’t borrowing will probably reach its highest level since May (07.00 GMT) We expect existing home sales in the US dropped back in November (15.00 GMT) A selection of key data and events through year-end are shown in the calendar below Key …
21st December 2020
We think that euro-zone consumer confidence fell back in December (Monday) US November personal spending figures likely to point to a drop in consumption (Wednesday) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike its one-week repo rate by 150bp (Thursday) Key …
18th December 2020
Positive vaccine news has not changed our view that monetary policy in many emerging markets (EMs) will generally remain loose for some time yet. That is a key reason why we still expect EM local currency government bonds yields to stay low by historical …
We expect Mexico’s c. bank to hold fire for now, but cut again in 2021 (Thu., 19.00 GMT) UK retail sales probably fell last month (Fri., 07.00 GMT) We think that the German Ifo will have declined again in December (Fri., 09.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
17th December 2020
While the real yield differential between the US and the euro-zone has moved against the euro recently we doubt that this trend will continue. And, in any case, we think that factors other than changes in real yield differentials will continue to push the …
16th December 2020
Fed set to unveil new guidance on its large-scale asset purchases (Wed., 19.00 GMT) BoE may give some clues as to how it would react to a no-deal Brexit (Thu., 12.00 GMT) Mexico’s central bank likely to hold fire for now, but cut again in 2021 (Thu., …
We think there is scope for global equities to make more headway over the next couple of years, against the backdrop of a recovering global economy and supportive monetary and fiscal policy. November saw the biggest monthly increases in MSCI’s World Index …
Frontier economies will receive only a relatively small direct economic boost from the roll-out of vaccines next year. But the indirect benefits via higher commodity prices, capital inflows and tourism spending will be more substantial. These indirect …
15th December 2020
We think that activity in China continued to improve in November (02.00 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably ticked up in October (07.00 GMT) The US industrial recovery is likely to have continued last month (15.15 GMT) Key Market Themes The Australian …
14th December 2020
Although we have revised up our forecasts for economic growth in many emerging markets (EMs), we generally still expect monetary policy to remain loose, or be loosened further, to the benefit of local currency government bonds. Indeed, we think 10-year …
Sunday the new deadline as Brexit talks go down to the wire China’s industrial production and consumer spending probably rose strongly again (Tue.) Fed likely to update its guidance on large-scale asset purchases (Wed.) Key Market Themes With the currency …
11th December 2020
Peru’s central bank will probably keep interest rates on hold later today (23:00 GMT) We expect Korean trade data to show a continued pickup in global demand Consumer confidence in the US may have declined this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
10th December 2020
While US corporate credit spreads are now close to their pre-pandemic levels, we think that they will fall further in general as the global economy recovers with the help of vaccines. Back in the summer, when the option-adjusted spreads (OAS) of ICE BofA …
We think that the inverse relationship between the dollar and risk appetite will remain strong over the next couple of years, against a backdrop of low and stable interest rates. We expect that the dollar will weaken further and risky assets continue to …
We expect the recent rise in US inflation compensation to continue as the economy recovers, but doubt that it will be matched by a similar increase in nominal bond yields. As such, we think real yields may fall further. To recap, the 10-year US Treasury …
We expect the ECB to extend and increase the PEPP and announce more TLTROs (12.45 GMT) We think US core CPI inflation rose only a little in November (08.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key …
9th December 2020
Headline consumer price inflation in China probably fell to its lowest since 2010 … … but only due to falling pork prices – core inflation likely to have risen (01.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated …
8th December 2020
US fiscal policy in the spotlight with a bipartisan deal on the table We think that South Africa’s economy grew by around 10% q/q in Q3 (09.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key Market …
7th December 2020
We think UK October GDP data will show the recovery stalled prior to lockdowns (Thu.) We expect the ECB to announce an extension to pandemic stimulus measures (Thu.) US fiscal negotiations in the spotlight again next week, with another relief deal on the …
4th December 2020
We think that the spreads of “peripheral” government bonds in the euro-zone are likely to fall next year to levels not seen since before the region’s sovereign debt crisis and that they will stay low over the next decade. This reflects our view of the …
New restrictions probably meant a smaller rise in November’s non-farm payrolls (13.30 GMT) An uptick in Russia’s inflation might take further rate cuts off the table for now (16.00 GMT) Ireland’s and Greece’s Q3 GDP data likely to show rebounds, but …
3rd December 2020
With positive news on COVID-19 vaccines increasing the chances of a strong global economic recovery next year, risky assets have rallied over the past month. While we think the stage is set for them to continue to do so, in this Update we identify five …
We think that the limited reaction of developed market government bonds to positive vaccine news is a sign of things to come. While the introduction of effective vaccines should help drive a stronger economic recovery early next year, it does not …
2nd December 2020
