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We expect the Fed to reiterate that policy tightening is still far away (Wed.) Central banks in Brazil and Turkey look likely to hike their policy rates (Wed. & Thu.) US industrial production and retail sales growth probably weakened in February (Tue.) …
12th March 2021
UK economy is likely to have contracted by 3% m/m in March (07.00 GMT) We think that euro-zone industrial production grew by 0.7% m/m in January (10.00 GMT) US consumer confidence probably rose in early March (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The ECB ’s …
11th March 2021
Just as we expect China’s economy to slow later this year even as growth picks up rapidly elsewhere, we think China’s financial markets could stand out from those in the rest of the world in the coming months. This year we forecast a significant contrast …
US House of Representatives set to give final approval to Biden’s stimulus package later today We think inflation in Brazil rose in February, pointing to a rate hike next week (12.00 GMT) The ECB’s policy meeting likely to focus on how it responds to …
10th March 2021
Risks to Brazil’s sovereign bond market building Bank of Canada likely to reiterate commitment to keep policy loose for a long time We think that consumer price inflation picked up in the US, but remained subdued in China Key Market Themes We doubt the …
9th March 2021
We think that the recent outperformance of the MSCI Japan Index relative to the MSCI USA Index will continue as the world slowly gets back to normal. After lagging for most of 2020, the MSCI Japan Index has been one of the best-performing developed market …
The US Senate is likely to pass President Biden’s $1.9 fiscal stimulus over the next few days We think credit growth in China softened, consistent with activity slowing later in 2021 (Sun.) The BoE and ECB will probably respond to higher yields with …
5th March 2021
The rise of government bond yields in the US and other developed markets (DMs) this year has made a significant impact on currency markets and, if it continues, would challenge our forecast for a weaker dollar. For most of last year, the primary driver of …
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in February (13.30 GMT) China’s government to present budget as National People’s Congress kicks off Read our highest-conviction macroeconomic and financial market forecasts here Key Market Themes We …
4th March 2021
We don’t expect the recent rise in US bond yields to turn into a rerun of the 2013 Taper Tantrum. But even if US real yields continued to grind higher, we think that EM assets and currencies would be better placed to cope than in 2013 . The recent …
Virus restrictions probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We expect Malaysia’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp (07.00 GMT) View our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
3rd March 2021
A fresh allocation of IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), if implemented, would provide a welcome boost to the depleted foreign exchange reserves of some distressed frontier economies. But an allocation wouldn’t address underlying dire debt dynamics, …
UK Budget likely to focus on further economic support, not tax hikes (12.30 GMT) US ISM services index probably edged up in February (15.00 GMT) We expect the central bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 10bp, to 0.00% Key Market Themes While the …
2nd March 2021
The RBA may push back against expectations of policy tightening at its meeting (03.30 GMT) We think euro-zone inflation picked up in February (10.00 GMT) Canadian GDP probably continued to grow in December despite lockdowns (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
1st March 2021
The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably remained strong in February (Mon.) The UK Budget is likely to focus on extending support rather than deficit reduction (Wed.) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by 500,000 in February (Fri.) Key Market Themes …
26th February 2021
Given our latest forecast for oil prices, we now expect the Canadian dollar to rise further in 2021 than we previously thought, but to drop back a bit in 2022. Despite already rising more than 15% against the US dollar from the last year’s low, we think …
25th February 2021
Even if nominal government bond yields kept rising this year, we suspect that this would be driven by rising inflation compensation rather than real yields, in contrast with the past couple of weeks. Chart 1 breaks down the increases in 10-year government …
India’s economy was probably around 1% smaller than a year earlier in Q4 (12.00 GMT) We think that US personal income and spending surged in January (13.30 GMT) View our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
The pound has performed better than all other G10 currencies so far in 2021 (see Chart 1), rising from $1.36 at the start of January to almost a three-year high of $1.41 now. We expect the strength of sterling against the US dollar to continue and have …
24th February 2021
We still expect emerging market (EM) “risky” assets and currencies to make further gains this year, despite growing concerns about another “taper tantrum”. EM assets and currencies have made significant gains since their troughs last year. And we think …
23rd February 2021
We think the RBNZ will not cut rates tomorrow, and that its easing cycle is over (01.00 GMT) Inflation probably rose in Brazil and Mexico in the first half of February Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market …
While we expect that EM currencies in general will rise further this year due to strong appetite for risk and a recovering global economy, we think several headwinds will limit their appreciation. For a start, EM currencies as a group have already …
19th February 2021
Johnson to set out how COVID-19 restrictions in the UK will be eased (Mon.) South Africa’s government not likely to announce end of austerity in budget speech (Wed.) Biden could unveil further details of fiscal plans at State of the Union Address (Wed.) …
Retail sales in the UK probably edged down in January due to virus restrictions (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone flash PMIs likely to show manufacturing activity remains resilient… (09.00 GMT) …while flash PMIs in the US are likely to point to a strong recovery …
18th February 2021
In our view, central banks’ cautious approach to tightening means that the yields of 10-year government bonds will rise only slowly in the next few years, even as the global economy recovers further. Since the last DM Markets Chart Book on 16 th December, …
We expect Bank Indonesia to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp… (07.20 GMT) …but the rally in the lira may convince Turkey’s central bank to stand pat (11.00 GMT) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably remained in the doldrums in February (15.00 GMT) …
17th February 2021
We think that the positive equity market rotation that accompanied November’s vaccine announcements will resume before long if, as we expect, vaccines allow restrictions on activity to be lifted later this year. To recap, the MSCI World Index of developed …
Fed minutes likely to confirm that policy tightening remains some way off (19.00 GMT) We expect US retail sales to have risen by 1.2% m/m in January (13.30 GMT) We think UK headline inflation edged down to 0.5% in January (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
16th February 2021
We expect euro-zone and UK February flash PMIs to show activity remains subdued… (Mon.) … while euro-zone GDP probably contracted in Q4 (Tue.) FOMC and ECB minutes will shed further light on policymakers’ views next week Key Market Themes Although central …
12th February 2021
With a large fiscal stimulus package looking increasingly probable in the US, and the Fed unlikely to push back on higher inflation expectations, we think the yield of 10-year US Treasuries may rise a little further. We expect this to be driven mainly by …
The UK probably avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 despite the lockdowns … (07.00 GMT) … while lockdowns likely deepened Poland’s contraction in GDP last quarter (09.00 GMT) We expect consumer confidence in the US edged up as virus cases receded (15.00 …
11th February 2021
Powell likely to emphasise the Fed is still a long way from withdrawing support We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.0% (Thu,19.00 GMT) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts, and their market implications here …
10th February 2021
We think US headline inflation edged up to 1.5% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect the Riksbank to keep its policy settings unchanged (08.30 GMT) Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The MSCI World …
9th February 2021
We think that UK equities will outperform their peers elsewhere this year, as some of the headwinds that they faced in 2020 fade or even act as tailwinds. The MSCI UK Index generally underperformed the rest of the MSCI World Index of developed market (DM) …
Progress on a US fiscal stimulus package is likely to be slowed by the impeachment trial We think that headline inflation in Brazil and Mexico rose last month Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
8th February 2021
We think that concerns about the commitment of Brazil’s government to fiscal sustainability will intensify over the next two years and weigh on its sovereign bonds and the real . While they have recovered a bit over the past few days, Brazil’s sovereign …
US headline inflation probably edged up from 1.4% to 1.5% in January (Wed.) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 4.00% (Thu.) In contrast, we think the central bank of Russia will keep its policy rate at 4.25% (Fri.) Key …
5th February 2021
In our view, major central banks will generally take a more cautious approach to tightening monetary policy than they did in the past. This underpins our forecast that the yields of 10-year government bonds in both developed and most emerging countries …
Indian government bond yields have increased sharply since the Union Budget earlier this week but we don’t think they will rise much further, and they may even decline slightly from here. To recap, Indian bond yields have increased by ~15bp this week, to …
We expect the RBI to cut its policy rate in response to lower headline inflation (06.15 GMT) US employment probably changed little in January, but risks lie to the upside (13.30 GMT) We think the US trade deficit narrowed last month as exports recovered …
4th February 2021
We think both the Bank of England and the Czech National Bank will leave policy unchanged Euro-zone retail sales probably rose in December (10.00 GMT) You can check our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes A …
3rd February 2021
We think that the US will return to a more traditional approach to the greenback under Joe Biden, and we anticipate that the overall effect of his economic policies will favour a weaker dollar. Since the mid-1990s, US policymakers have generally taken a …
Euro-zone CPI inflation probably rose in January (10.00 GMT) We think virus-related restrictions weighed on US employment last month… (13.15 GMT) … but that the ISM services index will point to a continued recovery in activity (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
2nd February 2021
RBA likely to revise up its forecasts for GDP and inflation (03.30 GMT) We think euro-zone GDP fell by 1%q/q in the fourth quarter of 2020 (10.00 GMT) Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes Indian …
1st February 2021
January PMIs are likely to point to a slow start to the year in the euro-zone … (Mon.) … while economies in the US, Canada, and the Nordics remained more resilient (Mon.) We expect US non-farm payrolls to show that the virus is still weighing on the …
29th January 2021
We continue to forecast that risky assets generally will fare well over the next couple of years as the global economy recovers and monetary policy remains accommodative. Despite their rapid rise since the start of November, we don’t think that equity …
The French, Spanish, Austrian and Belgian economies probably all contracted in Q4… … however, we estimate that Germany’s economy grew by 0.5% q/q (07.00 GMT) We think US personal spending fell last month, but incomes probably picked up (13.30 GMT) Key …
28th January 2021
We expect the FOMC to reiterate its commitment to accommodative policy today Economic sentiment may have deteriorated in Europe in January (10:00 GMT) US GDP growth probably slowed in Q4 (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes It seems very unlikely that the FOMC …
27th January 2021
We think that the recent rally in emerging market (EM) Asian equities outside of China will slow substantially this year, and that they will begin to underperform other EM equities. To recap, a key feature of global equity markets since November’s vaccine …
Fed Chair Powell may push back against talk of normalising policy any time soon (19.00 GMT) We expect Chile’s central bank to keep its policy rate on hold (21.00 GMT) Fresh elections in Italy now appears less likely Key Market Themes One of the salient …
26th January 2021
