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We think Sweden’s Riksbank could signal a rate hike in late 2023 (08.30 BST) June’s ISM Manufacturing Index may provide insight on recent supply shortages (15.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key …
30th June 2021
We expect that China’s manufacturing PMIs edged down in June (02.00 BST) The flash estimate of euro-zone HICP inflation probably fell slightly in June (10.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
29th June 2021
We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. Over the past month the tightening cycle among EM central …
UK consumer credit likely to have increased as the economy reopened (09.30 BST) We think economic sentiment in the euro-zone continued to improve (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably stay on hold, but sound more hawkish Key Market Themes …
28th June 2021
Euro-zone inflation likely to have risen above 2% as the economy re-opened (Wed.) June PMIs for Asia may suggest that demand for the region’s exports has peaked (Thu.) We think labour supply shortages continued to limit gains in US payrolls this month …
25th June 2021
We think that US real consumption fell slightly in May… … while change in the core PCE deflator remained high, at 0.6% m/m (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The yield of 10-year …
24th June 2021
Although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back following last week’s FOMC meeting, we still expect it to increase again before too long. To recap, after surging following the FOMC meeting, the 10-year Treasury yield has since given up its gains . At …
The hawkish surprise delivered by the Fed at its latest meeting and the subsequent market reaction have not changed our view that the 10-year US Treasury yield will end the year higher and that the “rotation trade” in equity markets will resume before …
Germany’s Ifo survey likely to rise again this month (09.00 BST) We don’t expect BoE to suggest it is any closer to tightening policy (12.00 BST) Banxico likely to look through rising inflation (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes As the dust finally begins to …
23rd June 2021
Fed Chair Powell may comment on the FOMC apparent hawkish shift in House testimony Q&A PMIs could reveal whether shortages continued to weigh on manufacturing output in June We expect the Czech central bank to hike its policy rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (13.30 …
22nd June 2021
Euro-zone and UK composite PMIs probably rose further in June (Wed.) BoE meeting should provide clues as to how concerned it is about rising inflation (Thu.) We think US durable orders rose in May, but real consumption declined Key Market Themes We think …
18th June 2021
The yields of 10-year US Treasuries and German Bunds have moved in lockstep since the latest Fed meeting, but we doubt that this will continue. While we expect the Treasury yield to rise sharply between now and the end of 2022, we think that the Bund …
Wednesday’s hawkish surprise from the Fed adds weight to our views that i) the US stock market will see only limited gains between now and the end of 2023, even as the economy generally continues to power ahead and ii) the stock market ‘rotation trade’ …
We think UK retail sales rose further above their pre-pandemic level in May (07.00 BST) The Bank of Japan may extend its emerging lending facility Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes The market …
17th June 2021
We expect both the SNB and Norges Bank to leave interest rates on hold… (8.30/9.00 BST) … and Turkey’s central bank is likely to also stand pat, for now (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
16th June 2021
Fed may begin discussion of how to eventually begin tapering its asset purchases (19.00 BST) We think industrial production growth in China slowed last month (03.00 BST) We expect the central bank of Brazil to raise its policy rate by 75bp to 4.25% (22.30 …
15th June 2021
UK unemployment rate probably fell while wage growth rose in April (07.00 BST) We think that US retail sales fell back from a high level in May (13.30 BST) US industrial production may have risen at a slower pace last month (14.15 BST) Key Market Themes …
14th June 2021
While we think that inflation in the US will prove more persistent than both the Fed and investors appear to anticipate, we still expect the S&P 500 to make some further gains over the next couple of years . The past few months have brought increasing …
11th June 2021
The rise in commodity prices has boosted some commodity-heavy stock markets, but we suspect that it will run out of steam before long, limiting those stock markets’ gains over the next couple of years. The surge in commodity prices over the past few …
10th June 2021
US consumer confidence and inflation expectations probably picked up in April (15.00 BST) We think UK GDP expanded by 3% m/m in April (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Despite the …
ECB may prepare the ground for gradual tapering of PEPP purchases later this year (12.45 BST) US core CPI inflation probably hit a 28-year high in May (13.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
9th June 2021
We think May producer price inflation in China rose to its highest level since 2008 (02.30 BST) Central banks in Canada, Poland and Chile are likely to leave rates unchanged Headline inflation probably fell in Mexico in May, but rose in Brazil Key Market …
8th June 2021
Industrial production in Germany probably continued to expand in April (07.00 BST) We forecast only 1.5% Q1 GDP growth in South Africa due the latest virus wave (10.30 BST) We think Chile’s central bank will keep its guidance of tightening later this year …
7th June 2021
We think US core CPI inflation to rose from 3.0% to 3.7% in May (Thu.) ECB likely to drop pledge to keep PEPP purchases significantly higher than in Jan./Feb. (Thu.) The central bank of Russia will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp to 2.25% (Fri.) Key …
4th June 2021
While we expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to increase as the US 10-year Treasury yield resumes its rise, we think increases in yields will generally be smaller than in the US. This reflects our view …
We think that US nonfarm payrolls rose by around 500k in May (13.30 BST) Employment in Canada may have fallen again last month (13.30 BST) See our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes After a turbulent first …
3rd June 2021
We think most developed market (DM) central banks will look through temporary rises in inflation and leave rates unchanged until at least early 2023. Even so, we expect the yields of 10-year DM government bonds to rise in the next couple of years, …
We think that Australia’s GDP expanded by about 0.5% q/q in Q1 (02.30 BST) UK consumer credit data are likely to show that card spending picked up (09.30 BST) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
1st June 2021
We expect US non-farm payroll to have risen by 500,000 this month (Fri.) ISM surveys are likely to suggest that supply constraints in the US intensified (Tue. & Thu.) We think China’s manufacturing and services PMIs edged up in May (Mon. & Thu.) Key …
28th May 2021
We think that US real consumption was unchanged in April (13.30 BST) The EC’s measure of euro-zone consumer confidence probably rose in May (10.00 BST) Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market Themes …
27th May 2021
We forecast that emerging market (EM) equities will make further gains between now and end-2022 as the global economy recovers further. However, they have lost a bit of ground to developed market (DM) equities recently and we doubt they will perform much …
We expect the S&P 500 to make only small gains over the next few years. But we think some sectors – such as financials – will continue to do better than the index as a whole. The rally in the S&P 500 has lost some steam lately . After gaining ~11% over …
We think US durable goods orders grew by a healthy 4.2% m/m in April (13.30 BST) With inflation subdued, we think the Bank of Korea will leave interest rates unchanged Read our latest views on currencies on our recently launched FX Markets Service here …
26th May 2021
RBNZ likely to leave policy settings on hold despite new housing mandate (03.00 BST) Unemployment in Sweden may have edged down in April (08.30 BST) Read our latest views on currency markets on our recently launched FX Markets Service here Key Market …
25th May 2021
The Ifo Survey in Germany probably rose again in May (07.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil is likely to have jumped, leading to tighter monetary policy (13.00 BST) We expect Hungary’s central bank to leave rates unchanged but update guidance (13.00 BST) Key …
24th May 2021
Sentiment indicators likely to show recovery gaining momentum in Europe US durable goods orders probably rose further in April… (Thu.) … but personal spending may have flat-lined in real terms as stimulus boost faded (Fri.) Key Market Themes The latest …
21st May 2021
Extended delays to vaccine supply from India to the Covax facility will keep rollout in many Frontier Markets stuck in first gear. Social distancing measures will have to stay in place for longer, holding back economic recoveries, and the risk of renewed …
While inflation fears have taken some steam out of the US stock market rally recently, we still think that equities in the US, and elsewhere, will make further gains over the next couple of years. Much of the focus in the markets over the past few weeks …
20th May 2021
Inflation in Japan probably remained negative in April (00.30 BST) UK retail sales probably surged last months as shops reopened (07.00 BST) We think May PMIs improved in Europe and the UK, but they may have fallen a bit in the US Key Market Themes …
South Africa’s central bank is likely to keep its rate at 3.5% due to weak economic growth We expect that higher headline inflation in Saudi Arabia will only last until June We think unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in April as wage subsidies ended …
19th May 2021
We expect long-term Treasury yields to rise more decisively before long, driven by long-term real yields. The nominal 10-year Treasury yield has bounced around a bit following some significant data releases lately . (See here .) But the big picture is …
FOMC minutes to be scrutinised for signs that officials are worried about inflation UK CPI inflation likely to have picked up sharply in April (07.00 BST) We suspect policymakers in South Africa will look through temporary spike in inflation Key Market …
18th May 2021
We think that the UK labour market held up quite well in March (07.00) Chile’s GDP probably rose in Q1, although it faces renewed political uncertainty (13.30 BST) US housing starts probably remained strong last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th May 2021
While we don’t think there is much scope for corporate credit spreads generally to narrow much further from here, in our view spreads in the euro-zone could fall a bit more than those in the US or the UK. Despite the wobble in equity markets over the past …
13th May 2021
US producer prices figures may provide further signs of inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Central banks of Mexico and Chile likely to keep policy rates on hold Our new FX Markets Service launches today – click here to find out more Key Market Themes We …
12th May 2021
We think UK GDP grew about by 1.5% m/m in March, marking the start of a rapid rebound E-Z industrial production likely to have grown by around 0.5% m/m in March (10.00 BST) US headline CPI inflation may have risen close to 4% last month (13.00 BST) Key …
11th May 2021
NFIB and JOLT surveys likely to point to growing labour shortages in the US We think that China’s headline inflation jumped from 0.4% to 1.3% in April… (02.30 BST) … and that Brazil’s headline rate remained well above the central bank’s target (13.00 BST) …
10th May 2021
We expect equities in the euro-zone to outperform those in the US between now and the end of 2022 even as the economic recovery in the former continues to lag that in the latter . After underperforming the MSCI USA Index for the most part of 2020, the …
We don’t think stock markets in emerging Asia will come roaring back to life any time soon, and forecast relatively small increases in equity indices there over the next few years. Having been among the best performers during the earlier stages of the …
7th May 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 1.2m in April (13.30 BST) China’s export volumes probably remained very high last month Germany’s industrial production likely to have risen by around 2% m/m in March (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
6th May 2021
