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Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. The latest activity data out of China emphasise how much the country’s economy – which …
21st October 2021
UK public borrowing may have fallen by more than expected in September (07.00 BST) We anticipate a 100bp rate cut from Turkey’s central bank (12.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market …
20th October 2021
We expect Indonesia’s central bank to leave rates on hold tomorrow... (08.20 BST) ... while Hungary’s may deliver a 15bp hike (13.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macroeconomic forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes Rather than …
18th October 2021
We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. Equity market valuations, as measured by price/forward …
China’s September activity data may point to further economic slowdown (Mon.) We think US industrial production fell sharply in September (Mon.) Turkey’s central bank will probably cut its policy rate by 100bp (Thu.) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
15th October 2021
Sacking of MPC members at Turkey’s central bank paves the way for more loosening A drop in car sales may have hit growth in US retail sales last month (13.30 BST) We think that US consumer confidence remained subdued in early October (15.00 BST) Key …
14th October 2021
While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in yields to be particularly large in the US given our view …
FOMC minutes may shed more light on the Fed’s tapering plans (Wed. 19.00 BST) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (Wed. 22.00 BST) China’s producer price inflation probably rose to a record high last month (Thu. 02.30 BST) Key …
13th October 2021
Bank of Korea probably on hold this week, but could signal November rate hike UK unemployment rate likely to have fallen in August (07.00 BST) JOLTS & NFIB surveys may provide further evidence of labour shortages in the US Key Market Themes We expect the …
11th October 2021
Shortages and rise in energy prices probably boosted US CPI inflation in September (Wed.) China’s producer price inflation may have hit an all-time high last month (Thu.) We think US retail sales were dragged down by a plunge in auto sales in September …
8th October 2021
We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline . To recap, the valuation of the S&P 500, as measured by its blended 12-month forward …
We think the prices of most commodities will fall over the next couple of years, and that this will prove to be a headwind for many countries’ stock markets. But the strength of that headwind will vary significantly, in our view, even among the most …
7th October 2021
We expect a 50bp rate hike from Peru’s central bank (00.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil probably rose again in September (13.00 BST) US non-farm payrolls likely to have increased by around 500,000 last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Emerging market (EM) …
We expect the yields of 10-year emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) government bonds to rise over the coming years. But, in most EMs, we think yields will rise by less than the 10-year US Treasury yield. While EM LC government bond yields have …
6th October 2021
We expect the RBNZ to hike rates by 25bp, after delaying in August (02.00 BST) We think euro-zone retail sales will remain unchanged (10.00 BST) We expect Poland’s central bank to keep rates on hold despite rising inflation Key Market Themes The longer …
5th October 2021
RBA likely to keep its policy settings unchanged (04.30 BST) Romania’s central bank may lay the foundations for a rate hike next month US ISM services index probably fell again in September (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes Even if concerns about potential …
4th October 2021
RBNZ likely to hike its policy rate by 25bp (Wednesday) Germany’s industrial production probably faltered in August (Thursday) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by around 500,000 last month (Friday) Key Market Themes We think that three recent …
1st October 2021
We think euro-zone inflation picked up this month to its highest level since 2008 (10.00 BST) US real consumption probably rose slightly in August... (13.30 BST) ... but supply shortages may have weighed on the ISM index in September (15.00 BST) Key …
30th September 2021
While financials and real estate have been among the worst-performing sectors in the MSCI China Index this year we think that there may be scope for them, as well as the energy sector, to outperform the materials and health care sectors and “technology” …
29th September 2021
We think industrial production in Japan increased last month (00.50 BST) China’s PMI data will probably point to further loss of momentum in September (02.00 BST) Central banks in Czechia, Mexico, and Colombia likely to hike rates Key Market Themes …
We doubt ‘tapering’ of the Fed’s asset purchases over the next year or so would weigh heavily on the US stock market, and forecast that it will make small gains over the next couple of years. At last week’s FOMC meeting, Fed officials gave, among other …
Speeches from Fed officials could give details on what drove hawkish shift in rate projections Australia’s retail sales probably fell by around 2.5% m/m in August (02.30 BST) Read our new CE Spotlight series for an in-depth look at the global inflation …
27th September 2021
US House of Representatives may vote on bipartisan infrastructure bill Lengthy coalition negotiations likely to follow German elections (Sunday) We think the US ISM manufacturing index dropped back in September (Friday) Key Market Themes We expect the …
24th September 2021
We expect Germany’s Ifo index to have declined again in September (09.00 BST) Brazil’s inflation probably rose to around 10% in the first half of September (13.00 BST) Read our latest reports on Evergrande’s collapse and its macro & market implications …
23rd September 2021
Even if the current concerns around Evergrande abate, we think China’s stock market will continue to underperform many of those elsewhere over the next couple of years. Worries about Evergrande have continued to weigh on stock markets in China and …
22nd September 2021
The FOMC’s latest “dot plot” is likely to be the focus of today’s announcement We expect Norges Bank to be the first G10 central bank to hike rates … (09.00 BST) … and the Bank of England to keep rates and asset purchases unchanged (12.00 BST) Key Market …
Probably too soon for a Fed tapering announcement (19.00 BST) China’s loan prime rate (LPR) likely to be steady for now, but to fall before long (02.30 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 100bp (22.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
21st September 2021
We think that UK public sector net borrowing remained elevated in August (07.00 BST) Policymakers in Sweden look likely to leave rates on hold … (08.30 BST) … but we expect Hungary’s central bank to hike its policy rate by another 30bp (13.00 BST) Key …
20th September 2021
Probably too soon for the Fed to announce tapering; new 2024 rate projections due (Wed.) Brazil’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by a further 100bp (Wed.) We think Norway’s central bank will begin its tightening cycle with a 25bp hike (Thu.) …
17th September 2021
While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the UK. This is based on our view that inflation will prove …
We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years . The remarkable rally in Japan’s stock market over the past couple of weeks, following the resignation of the …
Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index. The recent strong performance of equities in EMEA adds …
We think that UK retail sales rebounded last month (07.00 BST) US consumer confidence probably remained subdued during September (15.00 BST) See our latest research on inflation from the CE Spotlight series here Key Market Themes Although we doubt the …
16th September 2021
We think lockdowns weighed on employment in Australia in August (01.30 BST) US retail sales probably fell again last month (13.30 BST) See our latest top-line forecasts across economies and markets here Key Market Themes The renewed rise in consumer price …
15th September 2021
The UK unemployment rate probably declined in July … … but the annual pace of earnings growth is likely to have dropped too (07.00 BST) We forecast that US core inflation fell from 4.3% in July to 4.1% in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
13th September 2021
We expect a smaller rise in US core consumer prices in August (Tuesday)… …but think that inflation rose sharply in the UK last month (Wednesday) China’s activity data may suggest that its economy is losing further momentum (Wednesday) Key Market Themes …
10th September 2021
While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next couple of years. The resignation of Japan’s Prime …
We think the UK economy lost some momentum in July (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike by 50bp at its meeting on Friday (11.30 BST) US producer prices for August may show further inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes The ECB …
9th September 2021
We think that factory-gate inflation in China reached a new high in August (02.30 BST) The ECB is likely to prepare the ground for tapering its emergency asset purchases (12.45 BST) Inflation last month probably remained above central bank targets in both …
8th September 2021
We think that the increase in long-dated Treasury yields which we forecast will push up the yields of equivalent emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) bonds. Based on historical relationships, we expect yields to rise by less than in the US in most …
We think CPI inflation in China held broadly steady at around 1% last month (02.30 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy settings unchanged (15.00 BST) Inflation in Russia probably rose further above the central bank’s target in August …
7th September 2021
We think that the RBA will press ahead with tapering its asset purchases (04.30 BST) Supply bottlenecks probably continued to weigh on German industrial production (07.00 BST) We think South Africa’s economy barely expanded in Q2 (10.30 BST) Key Market …
6th September 2021
We don’t think tapering by the Fed will cause long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply, although it may contribute some upward pressure. But we do think those yields will rise quite a bit anyway, mainly because of the outlook for inflation in the US. …
3rd September 2021
Weaker demand probably weighed on China’s trade in August (Tue.) Inflation probably remained above target in Brazil, Mexico, Chile & Colombia in August We think the ECB will decide to scale back its emergency asset purchases next week (Thu.) Key Market …
We doubt that a further fall in Turkey’s inflation will prompt rate cuts quite yet (08.00 BST) Euro-zone retail sales probably dipped in July (10.00 BST) We expect a 750,000 rise in US non-farm payrolls in August (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Although …
2nd September 2021
We expect the US ISM Manufacturing Index fell further in August (15.00 BST) Euro-zone unemployment probably ticked down in July (10.00 BST) We think that Brazil’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% q/q in Q2 (08.00 BST) Key Market Themes While we think that …
31st August 2021
We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). This month’s activity data out of China emphasised how the country’s economy has continued to slow. The latest …
27th August 2021
Sweden’s GDP growth probably increased last quarter (08.30 BST) US real consumption likely to have fallen back in July (13.30 BST) Powell due to speak at virtual Jackson Hole conference (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes The S&P 500 remains within a whisker of …
26th August 2021
A year after the Fed announced its new policy framework, we think that bond markets still don’t fully reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of above-target inflation. While much of investors’ attention at the Fed’s Jackson Hole conference later …
25th August 2021
We expect the Bank of Korea to start tightening, despite recent virus wave Account of ECB’s July meeting may shed more light on changes to its forward guidance Further rise in Brazil’s inflation probably paves the way for another big rate hike next month …
