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We think the BoE will keep policy on hold due to renewed COVID uncertainty (12.00 GMT) We expect the ECB will signal that net asset purchases may continue indefinitely (12.45 GMT) See Key Data & Events below for a full summary of central bank policy …
15th December 2021
In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we think that emerging market (EM) equities will make only …
14th December 2021
The labour market recovery in the UK probably remained robust in October (07.00 GMT) Producer prices in the US are likely to underscore the strength of price pressures (13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Chile to continue their hiking …
13th December 2021
The Fed may accelerate the taper of its asset purchases (Wed.) We think that the Bank of England will keep rates on hold for now (Thu.) The ECB will probably announce plans to end net purchases under the PEPP in March (Thu.) Key Market Themes Although we …
10th December 2021
Even though headline US CPI inflation may now have peaked, we still think long-term inflation compensation could rise a little over the next couple of years. Data released today showed that US headline CPI inflation hit in November its highest level since …
We now expect the Treasury yield curve to flatten further over the next couple of years but think that, in contrast with recent developments, this will happen alongside rising long-term yields. The US Treasury yield curve has flattened sharply over the …
9th December 2021
We think US headline CPI inflation rose to just under 7% in November (13.30 GMT) UK GDP growth probably slowed in October (07.00 GMT) Peru’s central bank likely to hike rates by another 50bp, to 2.0% (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While the real has …
Higher food prices probably sent China’s CPI inflation higher last month (01.30 GMT) We think that inflation in Mexico jumped in November too (12.00 GMT) Peru’s central bank likely to deliver a 50bp rate hike (23.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We think the new …
8th December 2021
We think that Poland’s central bank will hike its policy rate by 75bp… …and the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate & forward guidance unchanged (15.00 GMT) We expect a 150bp hike from Brazil’s central bank (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We doubt that …
7th December 2021
We expect China’s trade surplus to reach a record high RBA not likely to make major policy changes this month, may taper in early 2022 (03.30 GMT) Industrial production in Germany probably declined again in October (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The recent …
6th December 2021
This Update takes stock of the moves in developed market (DM) asset markets in response to the “Omicron” variant, and provides initial thoughts on how we think things might progress if some of the fears about it are realised. Speculation that Omicron …
3rd December 2021
Inflation in Turkey probably held steady last month, but will soon rise sharply (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone retail sales may have slipped back in October (10.00 GMT) We expect another 500,000 gain in November’s US non-farm payrolls (13.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
2nd December 2021
We expect the Caixin Services PMI to show activity slowed further in China (01.45 GMT) We think that unemployment in the euro-zone continued to edge lower (10.00 GMT) Output in Brazil probably rose a bit last quarter but remains very weak (12.00 GMT) Key …
1st December 2021
US inflation hit its highest level since the 1990s in October and has now reached a rate that, historically, has coincided with very poor stock market returns. Notwithstanding the uncertainty around the impact of the “Omicron” variant of the coronavirus, …
We think that China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI edged up in November … (01.45 GMT) … but the US ISM manufacturing index was probably broadly stable (15.00 GMT) Headline inflation in Switzerland likely to have fallen slightly last month (07.30 GMT) Key …
30th November 2021
Fed Chair Powell will testify to Congress and could hint at an acceleration of Fed tapering We think China’s official PMIs will show a pick-up in manufacturing activity (01.00 GMT) We forecast that headline euro-zone HICP inflation rose to 4.7% in …
29th November 2021
We think the end of lockdowns boosted Australia’s retail sales in October (00.30 GMT) Switzerland’s GDP growth probably slowed a bit in Q3 (08.00 GMT) Find our latest analysis of Turkey’s currency crisis here Key Market Themes While the accounts of the …
25th November 2021
Spillovers to other emerging markets (EMs) from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure . Turkey’s financial markets generally have taken a …
24th November 2021
Sweden’s Riksbank may strike a slightly less dovish tone at its policy meeting (08.30 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably remained very high in early November (12.00 GMT) We expect Korea’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp Key Market Themes We …
We think the RBNZ will raise its policy rate by 50bp (02.00 GMT) US durable goods orders probably dropped back in October (13.30 GMT) FOMC minutes may show extent of support for a faster taper (19.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Turkey ’s currency crisis – the …
23rd November 2021
President Biden nominates Powell to a second term, but three Fed Board vacancies remain Supply chain problems probably weighed on PMIs in the euro-zone and the UK BoE MPC member Haskel could provide insight on December’s rate decision (11.00 GMT) Key …
22nd November 2021
Euro-zone PMIs may point to growth slowing in November (Tue.) US household consumption probably rose quite strongly in October (Wed.) Central banks of Korea and New Zealand both likely to hike rates by 25bp next week Key Market Themes We think the recent …
19th November 2021
US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one of the reasons why we forecast the yields of long-dated …
We think that retail sales in the UK edged higher last month … (07.00 GMT) … but that retail sales in Canada fell in September (13.30 GMT) President Biden could announce his pick for Fed Chair in the next few days Key Market Themes The Turkish lira has …
18th November 2021
Turkey’s central bank may cut its policy rate despite recent lira weakness (11.00 GMT) In contrast, we think policymakers in South Africa will keep interest rates on hold You can find our latest research on major DM and EM central banks here Key Market …
17th November 2021
We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That said, we still expect spreads to remain low by …
The UK labour market probably weathered the end of the furlough scheme well (07.00 GMT) We think Hungary’s central bank will raise its policy rate by 30bp (13.00 GMT) US industrial production may have rebounded by 0.7% last month (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
15th November 2021
High inflation may have lifted US retail sales values in October (Tuesday) UK inflation probably rose sharply last month (Wednesday) We expect a 100bp rate hike from Turkey’s central bank (Thursday) Key Market Themes After its most recent surge on the …
12th November 2021
In contrast with our expectations for sovereign bond yields to rise around the rest of the world, we think that the 10-year Chinese government bond (CGB) yield will decline over the next couple of years as the country’s central bank loosens monetary …
We think expectations for corporate earnings in the US and most of Europe are unlikely to improve much further. One exception is the UK, where earnings expectations look a bit less upbeat . Back in July, we showed that expectations for corporate earnings …
We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike rates by 25bp and 75bp, respectively Supply chain issues may have hampered euro-zone industry in September (10.00 GMT) We think US consumer confidence remained low this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
11th November 2021
The precipitous decline in Sri Lanka’s foreign exchange reserves means the risk of a near-term sovereign debt default is increasing. Elsewhere, Tunisia also stands out on account of its public debt problems. Fiscal challenges look severe in Ghana, Oman …
We think UK GDP rose by just 0.1% m/m in September (07.00 GMT) Mexico’s central bank likely to raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 5.0% (19.00 GMT) Australia’s unemployment rate probably edged up in October (01.30 GMT) Key Market Themes US Treasury yields …
10th November 2021
Inflation in China probably picked up to 1.3% in October (01.30 GMT) The Bank of Thailand is likely to keep rates on hold at 0.5% (07.05 GMT) We think US inflation reached 5.9% in October (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes The weakness in China’s real estate …
9th November 2021
We expect Romania’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp Inflation in Mexico probably rose further above target last month (12.00 GMT) US producer price data likely to show costs continuing to rise rapidly (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Last …
8th November 2021
China’s trade surplus probably fell in October (Sun.) US headline CPI inflation likely to have risen to nearly 6% last month (Wed.) We think policy rates will rise in Romania, Mexico and Peru next week Key Market Themes The decline in long-dated Treasury …
5th November 2021
While Brazil’s bond and stock markets have struggled lately, we don’t think either are set for a significant rebound any time soon, and suspect both will remain under pressure in the run-up to next year’s election. The falls in Brazil’s financial markets …
German industrial production probably increased only slightly in September (07.00 GMT) We forecast a 300,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls last month … … but think that the monthly pace of hiring slowed substantially in Canada (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
4th November 2021
Fed set to announce the start of asset purchase tapering (Wednesday 18.00 GMT) We expect the BoE to hike its policy rate by 15bp, to 0.25% (Thursday 12.00 GMT) We think the composite PMIs for Italy and Spain fell in October (Thursday) Key Market Themes We …
3rd November 2021
While the recent rise in the yields of short-dated developed market (DM) government bonds looks overdone to us, we still think that the yields of long-dated bonds will resume their rise . Charts 1 and 2 show that DM yield curves have flattened …
We expect Poland’s central bank to hike rates by 25bp The euro-zone’s unemployment rate probably fell in September (10.00 GMT) The Fed is likely to announce the start of asset purchase tapering (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although near-term inflationary …
2nd November 2021
RBA likely to announce end of its short-term yield target (03.30 GMT) Inflation in Switzerland probably remained low last month (07.30 GMT) We think New Zealand’s labour market recovery stalled last quarter (21.45 GMT) Key Market Themes While the spreads …
1st November 2021
Fed likely to announce start of tapering, and signal concerns about inflation (Wed.) We think that the BoE will be the next DM central bank to hike rates (Thu.) Labour shortages probably continued to limit US employment growth (Fri.) Key Market Themes …
29th October 2021
Japan’s industrial production may have fallen sharply last month (00.50 BST) We think that the euro-zone inflation rose even further, to 3.6% in October (10.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank will probably hike its policy rate by 25bp (19.00 BST) Key Market …
28th October 2021
While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some way to climb. We expect yields to rise by the most in …
27th October 2021
Brazil’s central bank likely to up the pace of its tightening cycle (Wednesday 22.30 BST) BoJ may revise down growth forecasts, but policy unlikely to change; ECB to stand pat too We think US GDP rose by around 2% q/q annualised in Q3 (Thursday 13.30 BST) …
The UK government is likely to announce stringent new fiscal rules (12.30 BST) The Bank of Canada will probably call time on quantitative easing (15.00 BST) We think Brazil’s central bank will hike its policy rate by a further 150bp (22.30 BST) Key Market …
26th October 2021
We think that Korea’s recovery gathered a little momentum in Q3 (00.00 BST) Inflation in Brazil likely to have remained well-above target in mid-October (13.00 BST) We expect that US consumer confidence weakened this month (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes …
25th October 2021
ECB and BoJ likely to stick to their guns; rate hikes likely in Brazil and Colombia US GDP growth probably slowed significantly in Q3 (Thu.) We think surging energy prices have driven euro-zone inflation higher this month (Fri.) Key Market Themes While …
22nd October 2021
Flash composite PMIs for the euro-zone and the UK probably dropped back in October We expect the central bank of Russia to hike its policy rate by 50bp, to 7.25% (11.30 BST) Inflation in Mexico likely to have stayed above target in mid-October (12.00 BST) …
21st October 2021
