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The Omicron outbreak probably weighed on UK GDP in December (07.00 GMT) We think Russia’s central bank will hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.5% (10.30 GMT) We expect US consumer confidence to have ticked up in early February (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
10th February 2022
We think upcoming “quantitative tightening” by the Fed will contribute to further increases in the yields of long-dated Treasuries this year and next. Investors have ramped up their expectations for Fed rate hikes lately, pushing Treasury yields to …
US headline inflation probably remained above 7% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike their policy rates by a further 50bp… … and the Reserve Bank of India to raise its revere repo rate by 15bp to 3.5% (04.30 GMT) Key …
9th February 2022
Romania’s central bank may raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% We expect Thailand’s central bank to stand pat throughout 2022 (07.00 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably rose further last month (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite recent increases, we …
8th February 2022
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 2.75% We think that the US trade deficit widened in December (13.30 GMT) Find our macro forecasts in our latest Global Economic Outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t think government …
7th February 2022
We doubt the S&P 500 will get much of a boost from upward revisions to earnings forecasts between now and the end of 2022, which is one reason why we expect the index to make only small gains this year. What’s more, notwithstanding their recent struggles, …
4th February 2022
China’s FX data could provide clues on PBOC exchange rate intervention (Mon.) US CPI inflation may have been close to its peak in January (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Russia, Mexico, Poland and Romania next week Key Market Themes Today’s …
We think euro-zone retail sales fell in December (10.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have caused US payrolls to fall in January (13.30 GMT) Virus cases may have weighed on employment in Canada as well (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Today’s hawkish surprises …
3rd February 2022
Sovereign dollar bond spreads have widened significantly in several Frontiers over the past couple of months, driven largely by country-specific factors. There are reasons to be hopeful that outright sovereign defaults can be avoided in Ukraine and Ghana, …
We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (12.00 GMT) In contrast, the ECB will probably keep its policy settings unchanged (12.45 GMT) We think the US ISM services index dropped sharply last month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
2nd February 2022
Emerging market (EM) equities’ relatively low valuations may continue to hold them in better stead than equities in the US, but we think they will do less well compared to other developed market (DM) equities. One striking feature of January’s falls in …
1st February 2022
Euro-zone inflation probably fell back a bit in January (10.00 GMT) January’s US ADP employment data may give an indication of Omicron’s impact (13.15 GMT) We expect Brazil’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 150bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
We expect the RBA to announce an end to its bond purchases (00.30 GMT) Omicron cases may have weighed on UK households’ borrowing in December (09.30 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While we think …
31st January 2022
We think that the BOE will hike by 25bp on Thursday … … but that the ECB will leave policy settings unchanged Omicron cases will probably have weighed on US employment growth this month (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even if this month’s falls in equity prices …
28th January 2022
Although government bond yields have already risen sharply this year, we think that they will continue to increase as central banks press ahead with monetary tightening this year and next. Higher yields will, in our view, weigh further on developed market …
GDP data for Germany may show that its economy contracted in Q4 (09.00 GMT) The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro-zone probably fell this month (10.00 GMT) We think Colombia’s central bank will increase the pace of its policy tightening (18.00 …
27th January 2022
The sell-off in Russia’s financial markets in response to the reassessment of the likelihood of conflict with Ukraine has pushed up the risk premium on Russian assets to a similar level to that which followed the annexation of Crimea in 2014. There is …
Fed likely to hint that a first rate hike may be forthcoming in March (Wed. 19.00 GMT) We think US GDP grew by 4.6% annualised in Q4 (Thu. 13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Chile and South Africa to hike rates further (Wed. & Thu.) Key Market Themes …
26th January 2022
Even though the valuations of technology stocks have, in general, already fallen sharply in recent weeks, we suspect they may decline further over the next couple of years. This is one reason why we expect the sectors in which they are heavily represented …
25th January 2022
We suspect that the Bank of Canada will hold off raising rates this month (15.00 GMT) The Fed may hint that a first rate hike is likely to come in March (19.00 GMT) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 125bp (21.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite its …
Germany’s IfO Survey probably fell back a bit this month (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 30bp (13.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have weighed on consumer confidence in the US (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US “big …
24th January 2022
Our baseline forecast envisages that US corporate bond spreads rise only slightly as the Fed raises interest rates over the next couple of years. But we think the risks to this forecast are skewed to higher spreads. We think that the Fed will hike …
21st January 2022
Fed officials may issue a hawkish statement at the upcoming FOMC meeting (Wed.) We expect central banks in Chile, Colombia and South Africa to hike rates next week Annual US wage growth may have reached 5% in Q4 (Thu.) Key Market Themes Although we think …
We expect UK retail sales to have fallen in December (Fri. 07.00 GMT) Japan’s headline inflation probably edged up to 0.8% last month (Thu. 23.30 GMT) Read our key calls for economies and markets in the year ahead here Key Market Themes For the first time …
20th January 2022
We expect China’s central bank to cut its 1-year Loan Prime Rate by 10bp (01.30 GMT) But we think that Turkey’s central bank will pause its easing cycle (11.00 GMT) We also expect interest rates to be left on hold in Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway Key …
19th January 2022
We think that UK inflation will hold steady at its 10-year high of 5.1% (07.00 GMT) We expect Canada’s inflation to have reached its highest level since 1991 (13.30 GMT) Register here for our webinar event “The World in 2022” Key Market Themes With …
18th January 2022
We expect the Bank of Japan will lift its inflation forecast a little We think that the UK labour market held up well in December (07.00 GMT) The Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US probably remained strong (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Although …
17th January 2022
The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect of tighter Western sanctions on the table. The …
14th January 2022
China’s economy probably failed to gain much momentum last quarter (Monday) The Bank of Japan may revise up its inflation forecasts at its policy meeting (Tuesday) We suspect that UK inflation remained above 5%, a 10-year high, last month (Tuesday) Key …
Even though we doubt that China’s equities will fare anywhere near as badly over the next couple of years as they did in 2021, we do not expect them to make strong gains from here either. This time last year we outlined our view that China’s equities …
We expect US retail sales fell slightly in December (13.30 GMT) We think that the UK economy expanded in November (07.00 GMT) China’s exports probably remained strong last month, while imports softened Key Market Themes The US dollar has started the year …
13th January 2022
We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for monetary policy. And, in general, we foresee an …
We think that US producer price inflation picked up in December (13.30 GMT) Lael Brainard likely to reiterate the hawkish line taken by Fed Chair Powell (15.00 GMT) Register here for our Drop-In event on Omicron, hawkish central banks and the 2022 outlook …
12th January 2022
We continue to expect monetary tightening to push up 10-year government bond yields across developed markets (DMs) but we now forecast them to reach a higher level than we had previously anticipated, especially in the US, Germany and the UK . Last year, …
Consumer and producer price inflation in China probably fell back last month (01.30 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production may have dipped in November (10.00 GMT) We think US headline CPI rose above 7% in December (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We expect …
11th January 2022
Australia’s trade balance was probably broadly unchanged in November (01.30 GMT) We think Brazil’s inflation fell in December, but remained well above target (12.00 GMT) Chair Powell’s confirmation hearing may provide hints about the Fed’s plans (15.00 …
10th January 2022
We think headline CPI inflation fell to 1.4% in China in December... (Wed.) ... but rose to above 7% in the US last month (Wed.) US retail sales and industrial production probably edged lower in December (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even though investors …
7th January 2022
While we don’t think the stock market’s falls this week mark the start of a sustained rout, we do expect Fed tightening to curb the upside for mid- and large-cap US equities over the next couple of years. And tighter monetary policy might also weigh a bit …
Peru’s central bank is likely to hike its policy rate by another 50bp on Thursday (23.00 GMT) We expect euro-zone HICP inflation edged up to around 5.0% in December (10.00 GMT) We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 350,000 last month (13.30 GMT) …
6th January 2022
Fed minutes may shed more light on the timing of lift-off in the US (Wed., 19.00 GMT) We expect the US ISM Services Index to have dropped back in December (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We think Germany’s headline inflation edged down last month (Thu.,13.00 GMT) Key …
5th January 2022
Euro-zone PMIs for December likely to have been revised down (09.00 GMT) Fed minutes may provide more detail on the central bank’s hawkish shift (19.00 GMT) See our latest research on the economic impact of the Omicron variant here Key Market Themes After …
4th January 2022
While many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has gone in the opposite direction. We think the easing cycle in China has further to run, and that this will contribute to a further …
22nd December 2021
We think the Bank of Thailand will keep rates on hold tomorrow... (07.05 GMT) … but we expect a 75bp hike from the Czech National Bank (13.30 GMT) Factory closures and virus restrictions may have weighed on China’s PMIs this month Key Market Themes Even …
21st December 2021
While we have raised our end-22 and end-23 forecasts for the S&P 500, we still expect gains in the index to be smaller over the next two years than they have been in 2021 and on average over the past decade . After rising sharply in October, the S&P 500 …
We think that UK public borrowing was in line with OBR estimates last month (07.00 GMT) New restrictions probably hurt euro-zone consumer confidence in December (15.00 GMT) Find our Chief Economist’s five key reads from 2021 here Key Market Themes If …
20th December 2021
We think that policymakers in China could deliver a surprise rate cut (Mon.) But the Czech central bank is likely to continue with its tightening cycle (Wed.) We forecast a strong rise in headline US durable goods orders (Thu.) Key Market Themes While the …
17th December 2021
We are revising down our end-2022 and end-2023 forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield by 25bp each, to 2.00% and 2.25%, respectively. This compares to its current level of ~1.4%. Admittedly, we now project that the Fed will raise its policy rate far …
UK retail sale probably rose significantly in November (07.00 GMT) Germany’s Ifo likely to have fallen again in December amid tighter restrictions (09.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp to 8.25% (10.30 GMT) Key Market …
16th December 2021
We think the BoE will keep policy on hold due to renewed COVID uncertainty (12.00 GMT) We expect the ECB will signal that net asset purchases may continue indefinitely (12.45 GMT) See Key Data & Events below for a full summary of central bank policy …
15th December 2021
In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we think that emerging market (EM) equities will make only …
14th December 2021
