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Developments in the dollar are likely to dominate oil price movements in the short-term and could even drag Brent crude as high as $125 per barrel (pb) this quarter. Nevertheless, with a recovery of the dollar and easing of oil market tightness in the …
22nd April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK house prices to fall by 20% …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Jump in UK gilt yields unlikely to be sustained …
21st April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of England initiative no substitute for further rate cuts …
18th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro closing in on $1.60 …
17th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No sign of a hard landing in China …
16th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G7 still a long way from intervening in the FX markets …
15th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Main Street diverges from Wall Street …
14th April 2008
Equity markets are probably right to expect the US to recover in the second half of the year, but this faith is not yet shared by the very people who will have to do the spending to lift the economy out of recession. … Equity markets are making a leap of …
11th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much further will the euro rise? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK interest rates on course for 3.5% …
10th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … IMF helps to puncture the markets’ complacency …
9th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed minutes interesting but not the last word …
8th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to expect from the G7 and IMF …
7th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japanese rates are still going up …
4th April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … A cautionary note on equities, and the dollar …
3rd April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the worst really over? …
2nd April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK interest rates to fall to 3.5% …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Diverging inflation and activity data highlight ECB's dilemma …
1st April 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Chinese inflation fears are (still) overdone …
31st March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Diversification out of Treasuries need not mean dumping dollars …
28th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … News on US economy to get a lot worse …
27th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Hike in Icelandic interest rates well-received …
26th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold loses its charm …
21st March 2008
This week’s sharp falls (from a peak of $1030 to a trough of $905) have reinforced our scepticism about the medium-term outlook for gold prices. We have therefore trimmed our end-2008 forecast from (an already relatively bearish) $800 to $750/oz, and …
20th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed has a lot more work to do …
Speculative pressure can only push oil prices so far before fundamental demand and supply conditions reassert themselves, leading to a potentially sharp correction. We expect (Brent) crude oil prices to fall to around $85 per barrel by the end of the …
19th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equities rebound ahead of the Fed …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed not to blame for slump in the dollar …
18th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the Bear Stearns bail-out …
17th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed must feel it just can’t win …
14th March 2008
This Update presents new (lower) forecasts for the dollar, but also reiterates our view that the US currency will stage a partial recovery in the second half of 2008 and into 2009. … How much further will the dollar …
13th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What are the chances of currency intervention? …
The slump in the dollar is encouraging speculation that the ECB and the Bank of Japan will soon be ready to intervene in the markets to cap the strength of their own currencies. However, while the case for Japanese intervention is the stronger of the two, …
12th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More of the same from the central banks …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed hasn't lost control of inflation, despite negative TIPS yields …
11th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weak payrolls confirm US recession is underway …
10th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB dampens rate cut expectations, lifting euro …
7th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The longer the BoE and ECB wait, the bigger the eventual cuts …
6th March 2008
Martin Wolf’s column in today’s Financial Times draws attention to the surge in the Cleveland Fed’s liquidity-adjusted measure of market expectations for US inflation, derived from inflation-indexed bonds (TIPS). However, the Cleveland model is not …
5th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Important day for survey evidence on US economy …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Next move in Japanese rates is still a hike …
4th March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US manufacturing and labour data to fuel recession fears …
3rd March 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US relying on external demand to keep its head above water …
29th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro to struggle to make further headway …
28th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Equity markets make a leap of faith …
27th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US house prices back in the spotlight …
26th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone and Asia holding up well in face of US slowdown …
25th February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recession risks trump inflation concerns – for Fed at least …
22nd February 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More bad news on inflation …
20th February 2008
