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The prospect of additional quantitative easing (QE) by a number of major central banks in the developed world has coincided with a renewed surge in the prices of risky assets. We are sceptical that the rally in equity markets will last in those countries …
7th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for sterling against the euro? …
The strength of the euro against the dollar in September coincided with a change in investors’ perceptions about the relative outlook for unconventional monetary policy on either side of the Atlantic. We do not expect the support that the change has …
6th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How significant are the BoJ's new policy initiatives? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … An unconventional view of unconventional policy …
5th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Central banks in focus …
4th October 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't read too much into yen intervention …
1st October 2010
This month’s intervention by Japan to weaken the yen has contributed to fears of a “global currency war” or, viewed more positively, to hopes that large-scale unsterilised intervention by the major central banks will be another important way in which …
30th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would a currency war mean for the euro? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is a currency war imminent? …
29th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The dollar's latest slide against the euro is unlikely to last …
28th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Recovery in the US manufacturing sector has faded significantly …
27th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold revisited …
24th September 2010
We now expect gold prices to stay high for several more years. Fears of runaway inflation or a dollar collapse, which underpin some of the most bullish forecasts for gold, remain exaggerated. Nonetheless, prices should continue to be supported by strong …
23rd September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are investors in TIPS too sanguine about the risk of deflation? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are shrinking corporate savings a threat to Treasuries? …
22nd September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Firms' pay-out policy does not mean US equities are attractive …
21st September 2010
According to the latest quarterly Flow of Funds Accounts published by the Federal Reserve on Friday, US non-farm non-financial companies (firms hereafter) returned more money to their shareholders in the second quarter of this year than they earned from …
20th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … FOMC unlikely to announce a second round of asset purchases …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The future looks bright for Indian equities, bonds and the rupee …
17th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen is vulnerable regardless of intervention …
16th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Yen to weaken regardless of intervention …
15th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What next for the renminbi? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The UK equity market may not stay strong for long …
14th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rising food prices probably boosted inflation in August …
13th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Trouble still lies ahead for the euro …
10th September 2010
The euro’s slide this week has been prompted by renewed concerns about the health of the eurozone’s banking sector. Although the ECB’s willingness to provide ample liquidity should ensure the financial system does not seize up, we expect Europe’s single …
9th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Sterling should strengthen against the euro …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Canada should move to the sidelines after today …
8th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The future looks bright for the Australian dollar …
7th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Some reassuring news in August's US employment report …
6th September 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging market equities should continue to outperform …
3rd September 2010
The performance of emerging market (EM) equities in 2010 has been disappointing relative to last year but has still been better than the performance of developed market equities. The MSCI Emerging Markets ($) equity index is broadly flat year-to-date …
2nd September 2010
The US FOMC’s decision to reinvest the proceeds of the Fed’s holdings of maturing agency debt and mortgage-backed securities into longer-term Treasuries triggered another sharp decline in US government bond yields in August. Even though policymakers are …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Wobble in the US Treasury market should prove short-lived …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US profits could suffer at the margin …
1st September 2010
Investors rediscovered their appetite for risk in July. Equities, corporate bonds and commodities sensitive to the economic cycle were all beneficiaries. Treasuries also held up well, however, amid concern that the US economy is shifting into a lower …
31st August 2010
The dollar lost ground in June even though investors’ appetite for risk cooled. A shift in relative interest rate expectations undermined the currency as disappointing economic data led investors to reassess the outlook for US monetary policy. Despite a …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US profit margins should get squeezed soon …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bernanke spells out the Fed’s options …
30th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gilts are not missing the Bank of England …
27th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan's stock market slump should not last long …
26th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global recovery still far from secure …
25th August 2010
24th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further Japanese monetary stimulus not a game-changer …
23rd August 2010
In contrast to those worrying about a possible bubble in the prices of government bonds, we expect yields in the US, Germany and UK to remain near current lows for the foreseeable future and possibly drop even further. We also continue to forecast that …
20th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No bubble yet in government bonds …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Next move from BoE still likely to be a further loosening …
19th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Unbalanced recovery to provide little respite for the euro …
18th August 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China overtakes stalling Japan …
17th August 2010