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The price of gold has fallen in recent weeks as reduced safe haven demand has more than offset the increase in inflation fears associated with the rises in some other commodity prices and the renewed slide in the dollar. But if risk aversion jumps again …
26th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … More reason than ever for the UK MPC to hold fire …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worrying is Ireland's political upheaval? …
25th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed should stick to its current plans for QE2 …
24th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the EFSF ride to Greece's rescue? …
21st January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Inflation peaks still likely to be lower than in 2008 …
20th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … European Fiscal Union is still a long way off …
19th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Rate expectations unlikely to buoy the euro and sterling for long …
18th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US consumers should curb their spending soon …
17th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Where might the consensus for 2011 be wrong? …
14th January 2011
We expect 2011 to be a year of generally disappointing growth but also fading fears of inflation in the developed economies, with lower industrial commodity prices and a stronger US dollar against other major currencies. The performance of emerging …
13th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Light at the end of the tunnel for UK gilts …
Gilts have had a rough ride over the past couple of months in common with the government bonds of other major economies. Things are unlikely to improve for a while – we think the 10-year yield will hover around 3.5% during the first half of this year. But …
12th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Portugal be the last domino to fall? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Brazil right to accuse the US of currency manipulation? …
11th January 2011
The Brazilian government’s accusations that the US is engaged in a “currency war” are always good for a headline but continue to have little foundation. China’s manipulation of the renminbi remains a far more likely flashpoint for a global crisis than the …
10th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US unemployment still painfully high …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What impact will commodity prices have on inflation? …
7th January 2011
Despite some hopes to the contrary, China is unlikely to be able or willing to do much to solve the debt crisis in the euro-zone. China was presumably already buying a significant amount of peripheral government bonds last year and yet this has not …
6th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we read into the strong ADP employment report? …
The surge in US Treasury yields in December was prompted largely by the announcement of further fiscal stimulus, which nurtured expectations of economic growth; increased anxiety about the budget deficit; and reduced the (perceived) onus on the Fed to …
5th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What is the link between economic growth and bond yields? …
One approach to forecasting long-term government bond yields is to assume that they should normally match the rate of growth of nominal GDP. For example, this approach is currently being used by some to support forecasts that 10-year US Treasury yields …
4th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global growth is set to slow …
23rd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US corporate bonds should have another good year in 2011 …
22nd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold to maintain its allure despite fading inflation fears …
21st December 2010
The improvement in the near term prospects for the global economy has prompted us raise our end- 2011 price forecasts for industrial commodities. However, our new forecasts of $75 per barrel for oil and $7,500 per metric tonne for copper remain (well) …
20th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EU statement does little to address investors' uncertainties …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … EU Council meeting set to disappoint …
17th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's demand for commodities is set to wane …
16th December 2010
Based on a plausible scenario for the evolution of the sustainable growth rate of the economy and the commodity-intensity of activity, China’s commodity demand in 2025 could be half the level that a simple extrapolation of the recent trends would suggest. …
15th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US equity market is likely to struggle next year …
The US equity market is ending the year with a flourish. The S&P 500 has risen by about 5% so far in December, and is not far shy of our year-end target of 1250. Nonetheless, we are sceptical the rally is built to last. … 2011 looks less promising for the …
14th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Better days should lie ahead for US Treasuries …
We do not believe that the recent jump in Treasury yields marks the start of a prolonged bear market. Provided, as we expect, the economic recovery ultimately disappoints and the Fed keeps short-term interest rates near zero, 10-year yields are likely to …
13th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No need to panic about inflation in China …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The US equity risk premium is likely to rise again next year …
10th December 2010
Aside from this week’s fiscal stimulus proposals, one explanation being provided for the sell-off in US government bonds is that they look expensive relative to US equities. We agree, but we don’t expect to see the equity risk premium shrink any further. …
9th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What does further US fiscal stimulus mean for asset markets? …
The unexpected scale of the fiscal stimulus agreed by the Obama administration and Republican leaders has caught the markets off guard. We think the rally in the dollar makes sense, and that investors are right to be sceptical about the implications for …
8th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Common euro-zone bond issuance probably a long way off …
The establishment of a market for euro-zone government bonds that are guaranteed by all Member States is seen by some as an important contribution to a resolution of the region’s fiscal crisis. We are sceptical, however, that the idea will get off the …
7th December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How big a risk is a global trade war? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market remains in the doldrums …
6th December 2010
The dollar bounced back sharply in November, especially against the euro, as anxiety about the health of government finances increased dramatically in the peripheral economies of the euro-zone. US Treasury yields rose substantially in response to signs of …
3rd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Better times ahead for US Treasuries …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB unlikely to save the day …
2nd December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Downward pressure on the euro is unlikely to abate …
1st December 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone peripheral government debt to remain under pressure …
30th November 2010
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market on the mend, but still not well …
29th November 2010
