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Japan’s equity market bounced back on Tuesday after last week’s sharp sell-off in the wake of the Tohoku earthquake. Although we remain on cautious on the outlook for global equities – our year-end forecast for the US S&P 500 is 1,200 – we suspect that …
22nd March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brighter times ahead for Japanese equities …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will global policymakers manage to cap yen strength? …
21st March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What can the G7 do for Japan? …
18th March 2011
Finance Ministers from the G7 are due to discuss the economic and market implications of the Japanese earthquake on a conference call beginning at 7am Tokyo time tomorrow. Given the scale of the tragedy now unfolding there can be no doubt that other G7 …
17th March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much of a boost could repatriation give the yen? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will Japan's catastrophe prompt a re-think by the ECB? …
16th March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What are the global ramifications of Japan's disaster? …
15th March 2011
The ratio of US non-farm, non-financial companies’ liquid financial assets to their short-term liabilities rose to its highest level in over fifty years in Q4 according to the Federal Reserve’s latest Flow of Funds report. Although this implies such firms …
14th March 2011
The devastation caused by the earthquake and tsunami that struck north-eastern Japan on Friday so far appears to have had remarkably little impact on financial markets in the rest of the world. However, a recession and possible fiscal crisis in Japan is …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Earthquake could prompt further BoJ easing …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Global growth still set to slow …
11th March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … UK MPC should continue to hold fire …
10th March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The future should be brighter for EM equities …
9th March 2011
The underperformance of emerging market (EM) equities relative to developed market (DM) equities is showing little sign of drawing to a close. But we doubt it will last much longer. Admittedly, EM equities are less attractively valued than in the past. …
8th March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Expectations of inflation still relatively low …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market slowly improving …
7th March 2011
Investors have become more convinced about the prospect of tighter monetary policy in Europe in response to upward pressure on headline inflation and some reasonably encouraging economic news. One more member of the UK Monetary Policy Committee voted to …
4th March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … ECB prepares the ground for higher rates …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Risks lie ahead for the euro …
3rd March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fed takes a sanguine view on commodity prices …
2nd March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Still a bumpy road ahead for Ireland …
1st March 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Speculation of US rate hike still premature …
28th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is Algeria next? …
25th February 2011
Another day, another $5 on the cost of a barrel of crude. At this rate it will not be long before prices revisit the highs above $140 seen in 2008. Given the pace at which markets are moving and events are unfolding in the Middle East and North Africa …
24th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will surging oil prices cause another recession? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much is the risk premium in oil prices? …
22nd February 2011
Thus far we have taken a relatively sanguine view of the global economic and market fall-out from the political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa. The fact that the unrest has spread to Libya does not materially change this view, but it has …
21st February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … China's RRR hikes reduce pressure for rate increases …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Do SDRs have a bigger role to play? …
18th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … King calms UK rate fears …
17th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging market equities should not underperform for long …
16th February 2011
One argument put forward for the rally in the US equity market is that share buy-backs are booming. This argument has its theoretical shortcomings, especially if the share buy-backs are financed with cash as opposed to tax efficient debt. Nonetheless, …
14th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Should share buy-backs be boosting the US equity market? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Commodity prices pushing up US inflation …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Indian equities should bounce back later in the year …
10th February 2011
Expectations of tighter UK monetary policy have pushed sterling up against the US dollar, driven gilt yields higher, and contributed to an underperformance of the domestic stock market. We continue to think such expectations …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … No need to fear rate rises in China …
9th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the future still bright for US corporate bonds? …
8th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … January’s US employment report is encouraging …
7th February 2011
Increased optimism about the economic outlook, buoyed by the announcement late last year of further policy stimulus, has helped the US equity market move a little higher since the beginning of 2011. Most commodity prices (with the notable exception of …
4th February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will EU leaders disappoint the markets? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't expect the euro's strength to last …
3rd February 2011
As growth slows out and fears about inflation fade, expectations of higher interest rates in the major developed economies should be scaled back significantly. In the second half of 2011 we expect US Treasury yields to drop back sharply, and the US equity …
2nd February 2011
Much of the coverage of the wider fall-out from the crisis in Egypt has focused on the potential impact on oil prices, but this threat to the global recovery is almost certainly exaggerated. Instead, the bigger risk may be the lingering impact on …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Further thoughts on the fall-out from Egypt …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How worried should we be about developments in Egypt? …
1st February 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US economic growth should slow later this year …
31st January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Japan's fiscal problems will return to haunt the markets …
28th January 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Gold's poor start to the year should not last …
27th January 2011
