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We do not expect the recent respite for risky assets to last. The outlook for the advanced economies is bleak and the growth rate of corporate earnings is set to slow. Investors’ enthusiasm for risk is also likely to be tempered soon by fresh concerns …
29th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro-zone policymakers' latest grand plan lacks teeth …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will euro-zone policymakers disappoint markets? …
28th October 2011
The resilience of the yen and a reassessment of the relative strengths of the various pressures on the Japanese currency have prompted us to change the direction of our forecasts. We now expect the yen to appreciate to 70 against the US dollar by 2012 and …
27th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … All eyes on euro-zone policymakers …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Politicians fiddle as euro-zone slides into recession …
26th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Waiting for a euro-zone rescue plan …
25th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much capital is enough capital? …
22nd October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Fundamentals for commodities not so great after all …
21st October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Prospects for inflation should prove favourable for UK gilts …
20th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will flagging earnings undermine the US stock market? …
19th October 2011
With the US third quarter profits season now underway, two common perceptions are that the growth rate of earnings will remain healthy, and that the value of the stock market in relation to earnings is low. We disagree with the first assessment, but take …
18th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Emerging economies to help those who help themselves …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … 10-year US Treasury yields to fall back to 1.5% …
15th October 2011
The recent rise in 10-year US Treasury yields has taken them further away from our end-2011 forecast of around 1.5% (at the time of writing they are around 2.15%). But we continue to expect yields to fall back to 1.5% over the next few months and to …
14th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets put their faith in Europe's politicians …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Dollar’s recovery not over yet …
13th October 2011
The dollar’s recovery against the euro may have paused but the outlook for the European single currency remains poor. The relative prospects for monetary policy and the risks of a renewed escalation of the financial crisis in the euro-zone should both …
12th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What should we make of China's purchases of bank shares? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market still quite weak …
11th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Markets unimpressed by UK launch of QE2 …
8th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank recapitalisation unlikely to draw a line under the crisis …
7th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Weak global economy to undermine riskier assets further …
6th October 2011
The dollar finally got a big boost in September from the euro-zone’s intensifying debt crisis and gloomy news on the global economy. The Fed’s major trade-weighted dollar index rose by nearly 6%, following a gain of less than 1% in August. … Market …
5th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Euro plunges as banking sector remains under pressure …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US labour market probably remained very weak in September …
4th October 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Does Greece’s debt exchange need to be revisited? …
1st October 2011
Given further falls in the prices of Greek government bonds (GGBs), it is little wonder some governments are reportedly seeking to renegotiate the terms of the debt exchange that was proposed for private sector creditors in July as part of Greece’s second …
30th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Doubts creeping in over euro-zone package …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How long will debt-laden Japan be able to avoid her own crisis? …
29th September 2011
As the euro-zone debt crisis continues to send shockwaves through the financial markets, it is ironic that the best performing of the world’s major currencies so far this year has been the yen. After all, Japan’s gross sovereign debt is larger than that …
28th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Preparing for the inevitable? …
Two of the pillars that supported the bull market in gold have recently been knocked away, namely the fears of a surge in inflation and a collapse in the US dollar. However, others remain strong, including the outlook for monetary policy and the prospect …
27th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … US durable goods orders could be a bright spot amid the gloom …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Operation Twist fails to inspire confidence …
24th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … The future looks brighter for US corporate bonds than equities …
23rd September 2011
US credit spreads have widened significantly since the end of July. However, corporate bonds have outperformed equities during this period – something we expect to continue over our forecast horizon given the relatively healthy state of corporate finances …
22nd September 2011
The recent sharp falls in emerging market (EM) currencies against the US dollar do not reflect fundamental shifts in exchange rate policy in these countries. Instead the main driver is renewed demand for the dollar as a safe haven from a slowdown in the …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the US stock market really so overvalued? …
According to the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds Accounts published last Friday, the market value of the equity issued by US non-financial companies at the end of H1 2011 was almost identical to the net worth (assets minus liabilities) of such companies …
21st September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Don't look to the BRICs to rescue the euro-zone …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will the Fed opt for Operation Twist? …
20th September 2011
Thursday’s pledge by the European Central Bank (alongside similar commitments from the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and Swiss National Bank) that it will offer 3m US dollar funding over year-end brought some relief to markets and bank shares in …
17th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Stress relief …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Has gold peaked? …
16th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … We now expect 10-year Treasury yields to drop to 1.5% …
15th September 2011
We have reviewed our projections for currency, government bond and stock markets. The new market numbers are presented in the table on the next page. There are two main changes. First, we are revising our year-end forecast for the 10-year US Treasury …
14th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will euro-zone banking shares continue to plunge? …
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Obama and Bernanke fail to impress the markets …
13th September 2011
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Waiting for Ben... …
10th September 2011
