Filtered by Subscriptions: Global Economics Use setting Global Economics
Soaring inventories and falling imports are strong signs that the supply of many industrial metals in China far exceeds final demand. Needless to say, this reinforces our scepticism about the current strength of commodity prices. … What is happening to …
26th November 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Are we any closer to a global Tobin tax? …
9th November 2009
Last month’s decision by the Brazilian government to impose a tax on foreign purchases of bonds and equities has stoked speculation that a number of other emerging markets could soon follow suit. Policymakers in Colombia are becoming increasingly …
6th November 2009
World trade volumes declined in August after strong monthly gains in June and July, but the pull-back looks nothing worse than a pause in an improving trend that near term has further to run. Asian exports rose strongly in September and final demand in …
26th October 2009
The global recession has ended and we expect the recovery to look impressive in many economies - notably the US, China and Japan - over the next few quarters. The upswing is driven by a mix of factors, notably the support from policy stimulus, the release …
22nd October 2009
With the recovery in the global economy gaining momentum and conditions in many financial markets getting back to normal, the threat of deflation would seem to have receded. We agree that a full-blown debt-deflation crisis is not the most likely scenario. …
20th October 2009
The measures put in place by governments to support their banking sectors and economies have helped to avert a full-scale financial meltdown and a 1930s-style economic depression. But the full costs of the measures will be felt for years, if not decades, …
12th October 2009
The global crisis has driven home the need for Asia to do more to expand domestic demand. But in every part of Asia there are frictions which mean the necessary policy shift will be drawn out. As a result, Asia will provide limited support to growth in …
6th October 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What difference will the G20 summit make? …
28th September 2009
World trade is picking up again, confirming that another aspect of the global financial and economic crisis is now behind us. But this adds little to what we already know from the signs of recovery in the national data and, of course, not every economy …
25th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Brighter 2010 to give way to gloomier 2011 …
11th September 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What to make of the G20 …
7th September 2009
Today’s CPB release shows global merchandise trade picked up m/m in June, its first meaningful gain since July 2008. But while the data confirm that Asia is leading the rebound in world trade, we expect only a patchy recovery once the initial bounce works …
26th August 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G7 recovery yet to impress …
17th August 2009
Another high-profile investor survey, published today, illustrates market concerns that inflation could surge out of control as a result of the extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus now in place. The outlook is indeed unusually uncertain and …
24th July 2009
Today’s CPB survey suggests that world trade continued to decline in May, albeit at a much slower rate. We expect a rebound in the coming months. However, the pick-up from then on is likely to be modest, mirroring our expectations of a slow global …
23rd July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … SDRs set for massive increase in supply …
21st July 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Asia recovering, but emerging markets in Europe still sick …
15th July 2009
IMF Special Drawing Rights will not emerge as a reserve asset to challenge the dollar, but they could be used to reduce the risks of a destabilising flight by reserve holders from the US currency. The value of a new international currency in stabilising …
14th July 2009
The worst case scenario of a complete financial and economic meltdown has been averted. Nonetheless, some of the alternatives are still pretty nasty. Indeed, new threats are emerging in the form of the prospect of outright falls in wages in the advanced …
9th July 2009
The creation of new money by central banks is a sideshow compared to the disinflationary pressures still building in the real world. In particular, the risk that falling wages will trigger a deflationary spiral is far greater than the inflationary threat …
7th July 2009
The People’s Bank of China is again calling for an alternative to the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. Words are cheap. There is strong evidence that central bank purchases of dollars have soared since the People’s Bank first raised the issue …
26th June 2009
World trade may be close to stabilising after the unprecedented slump that began last September, but there are few signs yet of a meaningful recovery. We now expect merchandise trade volumes to fall by around 15% in 2009 as a whole, with only a partial …
24th June 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Anaemic global recovery likely to disappoint …
9th June 2009
The Nordic authorities’ handling of the early 1990s banking crises has since been hailed as being close to best practice. Nonetheless, given that a global economic upturn was a key factor behind the subsequent Nordic economic recovery, merely following …
20th May 2009
The recent bounce in financial markets, notably equities, seems justified by the improvements in the business surveys and the stabilisation in consumer confidence. However, further large gains from here would require a V-shaped economic recovery. While …
14th May 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Will financial markets help or hinder recovery? …
11th May 2009
Both Latin America and Emerging Europe will enter deep recessions this year and, in the absence of a strong global recovery, the pain is likely to extend well into 2010. But whereas Latin America has been at the centre of previous crises, this time the …
28th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … How much should we worry about swine flu? …
27th April 2009
The arrival of spring has seen a blossoming of confidence in global financial markets, but this optimism seems premature. … Green shoots or false dawn? (Q2 …
14th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Is the world on the road to recovery? …
8th April 2009
Several commentators have argued that inflation will pick up sooner than generally anticipated as a result of a permanent loss of capacity during the recession. However, it seems just as likely that the process of “creative destruction” will leave the …
6th April 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … London Summit - where will the money come from? …
3rd April 2009
The London Summit failed to break any new ground on a global fiscal stimulus or support for the financial sector, but it has at least promised generous increases in funding for the IMF and additional trade finance. This is perhaps the most that could …
2nd April 2009
We expect world trade to recover over the next year or so. But if protectionist pressures grow, emerging markets will be hit hard, with those in Eastern Europe likely to suffer the most. … How vulnerable are emerging markets to a rise in …
1st April 2009
This week’s London G20 summit is in danger of over-promising and under-delivering. The chances of an additional global fiscal stimulus look remote and there is no sign of agreement on the best ways to support and reform the financial system. However, it …
30th March 2009
The suggestion by China’s central bank governor that the dollar be replaced as the world’s reserve currency may have been prompted by concern about the impact of the Fed’s quantitative easing on the dollar. But China has little room for manoeuvre: no good …
24th March 2009
With its key interest rate now perilously close to zero it was no surprise that the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced today that next month it will unveil a framework for the possible implementation of quantitative easing in Canada. … Bank of Canada cuts …
3rd March 2009
It is tempting to argue that the quantitative easing (QE) now being adopted in the US and the UK, among others, differs only in degree from the reckless printing of money that contributed to the hyper-inflation in Zimbabwe. A closer look shows that such …
17th February 2009
The Bank of Canada cut its key policy rate by 50 basis points today, to a record low of only 1.0, and left the door open to further reductions in the coming months. The close financial and trade links between Canada and the United States mean that there …
20th January 2009
There is still no universally accepted single cause of the Great Depression. But our analysis suggests that the main culprit for the role of catalyst was the bursting of the bubbles in the equity and commodity markets, accompanied by falling house prices. …
19th January 2009
With the global downturn still gathering pace, it is far too soon to start positioning for a recovery. Indeed, we now expect GDP in the advanced economies of the G7 to shrink by nearly 2% this year. … Too soon to look for economic recovery (Q1 …
14th January 2009
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Could China end up making things worse in 2009? …
18th December 2008
Quantitative easing (QE) is a potentially very powerful tool that could pull economies out of recession and deflation. However, to work fully it may have to be combined with additional measures to encourage the banks to lend or, as a last resort, a …
17th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Ecuador defaults …
15th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … Bank of Canada takes the initiative …
9th December 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … What would be the implications of an Ecuadorian default? …
Governments across the world have announced tax cuts and spending increases in an attempt to prevent global recession from turning into a prolonged depression. However, the measures still fall well short of the sort of numbers that could make a real …
28th November 2008
There may be some practical reasons why the floor for official interest rates should be set slightly higher than zero - perhaps 0.25% or 0.5%. But the long period of zero interest rates in Japan proves that there is no insurmountable barrier to prevent …
20th November 2008
This report is only available as a PDF. Click to download. … G20 short on specifics but long on good intentions …
16th November 2008
