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We expect the BoJ to cut its policy rate by 10bp, to -0.20% (Tuesday) ECB likely to expand its asset purchases, while the Fed and Riksbank leave policy unchanged China’s official PMIs will probably point to further recovery, but at a slow pace (Thursday) …
24th April 2020
Ifo’s Business Climate Indicator for Germany is all but certain to have plunged in April We expect Russia’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp (11.30 BST) US durable goods orders may have dropped by 15% m/m in March (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
23rd April 2020
Flash PMIs likely to show that economic activity in DMs weakened even further in April US initial jobless claims probably remained extremely high last week (13.30 BST) We think that Korean GDP fell by about 3.0% q/q in the first quarter (00.00 BST) Key …
22nd April 2020
UK inflation probably dipped in March (07.00 BST) Turkey’s central bank likely to cut rates by 100bp, to 8.75% (12.00 BST) We think consumer confidence in the euro-zone fell even further in April (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the widening of the …
21st April 2020
Higher risk of default in Argentina after bondholders reject debt restructuring proposal We forecast that exports in Korea dropped by 25% in the first 20 days of April Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index probably fell further this month (10.00 BST) Key …
20th April 2020
We continue to think that most EM currencies will end the year higher than their current levels, even if they face further turbulence. But we don’t expect them to recover as strongly as they did after the GFC. As we have discussed previously , emerging …
17th April 2020
We expect China’s official GDP to contract in Q1, for the first time in 40 years (03.00 BST) In the US, Congress is set to negotiate an extension to the SBA’s small-business loan program The UK shutdown will probably be extended until 7 th May Key Market …
16th April 2020
PBOC ramps up its monetary stimulus, and more rate cuts are on the cards US initial jobless claims will probably come in only a bit lower than the last reading UK government likely to extend lockdown to 7 th May Key Market Themes Emerging market …
15th April 2020
We think that US retail sales and industrial production fell sharply in March Korea’s Democratic Party expected to win most seats in Wednesday’s parliamentary election The Bank of Canada may add corporate bonds to its asset purchases (15.00 BST) Key …
14th April 2020
US retail sales and industrial production to show how hard consumer spending has been hit We expect central banks in Indonesia and Peru to cut rates (Tue. & Fri.) China’s GDP may have fallen by as much as 16% y/y in Q1 (Fri.) Key Market Themes We have …
9th April 2020
Congress is reportedly considering expanding support to small businesses US consumer confidence index likely to show its biggest ever fall in April (15.00 BST) We expect Korea’s central bank to cut its policy rate to an all-time low of 0.50% Key Market …
8th April 2020
Eurogroup seems set to agree a joint fiscal response to the coronavirus crisis We expect the Polish central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp to 0.50% We think Norway’s headline inflation fell from 0.9% to about 0.6% in March (09.00 BST) Key Market …
7th April 2020
Eurogroup set to discuss the use of the ESM in response to the coronavirus crisis We expect the RBA to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.25% (05.30 BST) Mexico’s headline inflation likely to have fallen from 3.7% to 3.5% in March (12.00 BST) Key Market …
6th April 2020
US initial claims data likely to point to another 5 million job losses this week (Thursday) We think that US consumer confidence dropped to levels last seen during the GFC (Thursday) Interest rates likely to be cut in Korea and Poland, but left unchanged …
3rd April 2020
PMIs in the euro-zone and the UK likely to be revised down from their flash estimates US non-farm payrolls unlikely to capture much of the hit to employment from coronavirus ISM non-manufacturing index could prove a more useful gauge of the effect on US …
2nd April 2020
US initial jobless claim may have surged to 5 million last week (13.30 GMT) India’s manufacturing PMI probably plunged in March (05.00 GMT) We expect Egypt’s central bank to cut its deposit rate by 100bp (18.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although both …
1st April 2020
While the worst may be yet to come for emerging market currencies, we expect that most will end this year stronger than they are now. Emerging market currencies have had a difficult year so far : our equal-weighted index of twenty large EM currencies has …
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI probably rebounded in March (01.45 GMT) ADP employment data to give more insight on the state of the US labour market (13.15 GMT) We expect a sharp fall in the US ISM manufacturing index in March (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
31st March 2020
China’s PMIs are likely to show that activity started to recover in March (01.00 GMT) Germany’s unemployment rate probably rose to a 20-month high of 5.2% in March (8.55 GMT) We expect the central bank of Chile to lower its policy rate by 50bp to 0.5% …
30th March 2020
Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic impact on our dedicated page here We think that manufacturing output recovered in China in March, but plunged elsewhere Huge policy response won’t prevent economic activity from falling sharply in Q2 Key …
27th March 2020
ECB will not be bound by issuer limits in its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme EU leaders to hold press conference on joint fiscal response to the crisis later on Thursday US $2tn coronavirus relief bill likely to be passed by the House on Friday Key …
26th March 2020
EU leaders set to discuss the use of “corona bonds” to fund the fiscal response to COVID-19 Singapore’s advanced estimate of Q1 GDP is likely to show a slump in activity (00.00 GMT) We expect the Czech central bank to cut its policy rate by 75bp to 1.00% …
25th March 2020
While we think that most currencies will eventually regain much of the ground that they have recently lost to the US dollar, we don’t expect that process to start until the pandemic has clearly passed its worst . The US dollar has strengthened this year …
24th March 2020
Track the spread of COVID-19 and its economic impact on our dedicated page here Flash PMIs should show the huge scale of the economic damage caused by the outbreak More central banks likely to loosen monetary policy after Fed announces raft of new …
23rd March 2020
The slump in the prices of commodities has hit hard the currencies of the countries whose fortunes depend heavily on them. (See Chart 1.) But if we are right and commodity prices eventually recover as the coronavirus pandemic is brought under control, …
Many central banks have eased policy further, and more loosening appears to be on the cards We think that China’s 1-Year Loan Prime Rate fell by another 10bps this month (01.30 GMT) US senators to release details of stimulus plan to fight the coronavirus …
19th March 2020
Despite their latest fiscal measures, we think that euro-zone policymakers need to do more US data for March may show early signs of the economic hit from the virus (12.30 GMT) Switzerland’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp to -1.00% …
18th March 2020
More central banks to join the Fed in loosening monetary policy You can track the spread of COVID-19 and its impact on our dedicated page here US NAHB homebuilder confidence index should give some idea of the hit to housing activity Key Market Themes The …
16th March 2020
FOMC likely to cut rates by 50bp, but 100bp possible (Wednesday) We think that the Bank of Japan will cut its deposit rate to minus 0.2% (Thursday) A fall in the real means Brazil’s central bank is likely to stand pat (Wednesday) Key Market Themes …
13th March 2020
Global markets rout deepens as fears over the economic impact of pandemic mount The UK is expected to move from a “contain” to a “delay” strategy for countering COVID-19 University of Michigan survey to show how the virus is weighing on US consumer …
12th March 2020
While some of the large shifts in the FX market over the past weeks may unwind if the coronavirus epidemic fades, we have revised some of our forecasts to reflect the sharp fall in US interest rates and the price of oil. Before the global spread of the …
We expect the ECB to announce new stimulus, including a 10bp rate cut (12.45 GMT) India’s CPI inflation is likely to have dropped sharply in February (12.30 GMT) Peru’s central bank will probably lower its policy rate to 2% (23.20 GMT) Key Market Themes …
11th March 2020
Financial market meltdown raises the probability of more Fed easing before long … … but falls in MXN and RUB have all but removed the possibility of cuts in Mexico and Russia See our dedicated page for all the latest on the coronavirus outbreak Key Market …
9th March 2020
The UK budget will probably deliver measures to cushion the economic effects of COVID-19 We think that the ECB will follow the Fed and cut its deposit rate by 10bp (Thursday) University of Michigan survey to show that COVID-19 is weighing on US consumer …
6th March 2020
You can track the latest data on the coronavirus on this dedicated page on our website We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 230,000 in February (13.30 GMT) The US trade deficit probably narrowed in January (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite …
5th March 2020
We now expect more rate cuts from the Fed , the ECB , the BoJ and the BoE OPEC+ likely to agree to cut oil output further in order to support prices We think that Australia’s trade surplus narrowed in January (00.30 GMT) Key Market Themes In an otherwise …
4th March 2020
In light of the accelerating spread of the coronavirus – and the economic disruption that is likely to follow – we are pulling down our GDP growth forecasts for Q1 and Q2 of this year. Growth is likely to rebound over the second half of the year, but most …
2nd March 2020
Bernie Sanders still favourite to win Super Tuesday Democratic primaries held in 15 states Central bank of Malaysia likely to cut rates, while RBA remains on hold Euro-zone headline inflation probably slowed in February as oil prices fell (10.00 GMT) Key …
We think that China’s manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level on record in February (Mon.) Bernie Sanders is on course to win the “Super Tuesday” primaries (Tue.) We forecast a 230,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls (Fri.) Key Market Themes The S&P 500 …
28th February 2020
We think that China’s GDP will contract in Q1 in y/y terms for the first time since the 1990s US consumption growth probably remained subdued at the start of the year (13.30 GMT) We forecast that Canada’s GDP rose by only 0.2% annualised in Q4 (13.30 GMT) …
27th February 2020
Central bank of Korea likely to cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 1.00% The euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator probably held steady in February (10.00 GMT) We think that US GDP growth will be confirmed at 2.1% annualised in Q4 (13.30 GMT) Key Market …
26th February 2020
Lagarde’s speech may contain clues to the ECB’s likely response to the coronavirus outbreak We think that South Africa’s budget will include tax rises and spending cuts US new homes sales probably picked up in January (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
25th February 2020
The spread of coronavirus may be slowing in China, but cases elsewhere are rising fast We think that US consumer confidence rebounded in February (15.00 GMT) Final GDP estimate is likely to confirm that Germany’s economy stagnated in Q4 (07.00 GMT) Key …
24th February 2020
Euro-zone composite and manufacturing PMIs probably fell sharply in February (08.30 GMT) We expect the UK PMIs to show that the economy has started to turn a corner (09.30 GMT) Canada’s retail sales are likely to have risen a bit in December (13.30 GMT) …
20th February 2020
While the euro has already fallen to its lowest level in nearly two years against the US dollar, we think that it will drop a bit further during the rest of 2020, pushed down by several factors including a weaker economic outlook and looser monetary …
19th February 2020
We think that the central bank of Egypt will lower its policy rate by 50bp, to 11.75% China’s 1-year Loan Prime Rate likely to be cut by 10bp, to 4.05% (00.30 GMT) Consumer confidence in the euro-zone probably deteriorated in February (15.00 GMT) Key …
UK inflation probably rose to 1.8% in January, but the increase is likely to be fleeting We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut its one-week repo rate by 75bp (11.00 GMT) FOMC minutes may provide details on Fed’s strategy review and balance sheet plans …
18th February 2020
China’s central bank likely to loosen policy further UK Chief Negotiator due to give a speech in Brussels (Mon., 18.45 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably edged up a bit in December (Tue., 09.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We don’t expect Japan ’s economy …
17th February 2020
We think that the greenback will remain strong this year, even if some of its recent strength may unwind. The dollar has started the year on the front foot : since 1 st January it has appreciated by about 3% on average against other G10 and 2% against …
Sanders the frontrunner for Democratic nomination ahead of Nevada caucuses We expect Chinese banks to pass on the recent PBOC rate cut to their borrowers (Thu.) Coronavirus outbreak likely to have weighed on euro-zone business activity in February (Fri.) …
14th February 2020
