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South Africa’s central bank is likely to keep its rate at 3.5% due to weak economic growth We expect that higher headline inflation in Saudi Arabia will only last until June We think unemployment in Australia fell to 5.4% in April as wage subsidies ended …
19th May 2021
FOMC minutes to be scrutinised for signs that officials are worried about inflation UK CPI inflation likely to have picked up sharply in April (07.00 BST) We suspect policymakers in South Africa will look through temporary spike in inflation Key Market …
18th May 2021
We think that the UK labour market held up quite well in March (07.00) Chile’s GDP probably rose in Q1, although it faces renewed political uncertainty (13.30 BST) US housing starts probably remained strong last month (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes We …
17th May 2021
The unexpected jump in US inflation data pushed the greenback higher against most currencies this week and may a harbinger of things to come – we continue to expect the dollar to appreciate this year. That said, recent US activity data, notably last …
14th May 2021
US producer prices figures may provide further signs of inflationary pressure (13.30 BST) Central banks of Mexico and Chile likely to keep policy rates on hold Our new FX Markets Service launches today – click here to find out more Key Market Themes We …
12th May 2021
We think the greenback will strengthen a bit over the next couple of years as the economy in the US outperforms during the recovery from COVID-19 and government bond yields there generally rise faster than those elsewhere. In this environment, we expect …
This Update sets out the main calls of our new FX service. As part of our expanded coverage of currency markets, we will maintain and continuously update this set of core predictions. Our first FX Outlook includes more detailed analysis, as well as …
We think UK GDP grew about by 1.5% m/m in March, marking the start of a rapid rebound E-Z industrial production likely to have grown by around 0.5% m/m in March (10.00 BST) US headline CPI inflation may have risen close to 4% last month (13.00 BST) Key …
11th May 2021
NFIB and JOLT surveys likely to point to growing labour shortages in the US We think that China’s headline inflation jumped from 0.4% to 1.3% in April… (02.30 BST) … and that Brazil’s headline rate remained well above the central bank’s target (13.00 BST) …
10th May 2021
We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by about 1.2m in April (13.30 BST) China’s export volumes probably remained very high last month Germany’s industrial production likely to have risen by around 2% m/m in March (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes Despite …
6th May 2021
Retail sales probably surged in Germany, but fell in France (10.00 BST) BoE likely to revise forecasts up, but push back against expectations of rate hikes (12.00 BST) We expect US jobless claims to confirm that the labour market is rebounding fast (13.30 …
5th May 2021
The final reading for Euro-zone PMIs for April likely to be revised down a touch (09.00 BST) ADP report may point to stronger US employment growth in April (13.15 BST) We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp (22.30 BST) Key Market …
4th May 2021
We expect Brazil’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp, to 3.50% (Wed.) China’s Caixin services PMI will probably point to growth momentum waning (Thu.) US employment report likely to show continued acceleration in the pace of recovery (Fri.) Key …
30th April 2021
The Fed is likely to leave its current policy settings unchanged this evening… … but we think data tomorrow will show Q1 US GDP growth hit 7.0% annualised (13.30 BST) Euro-zone economic sentiment was probably unchanged in April (10.00 BST) Key Market …
28th April 2021
Fed likely to strike an optimistic tone but maintain its dovish stance (19.00 BST) Biden due to unveil details of $1.5tn American Families Plan Read our highest conviction macro forecasts and their market implications here Key Market Themes We do not …
27th April 2021
Higher inflation in Brazil may set the stage for further rate hikes (13.00 BST) We think that US consumer confidence continued to recover in April (15.00 BST) Bank of Japan & Sweden’s Riksbank will probably both keep policy settings unchanged Key Market …
26th April 2021
The Fed is likely to stick its dovish policy stance despite a brightening economic outlook (Wed.) We think a surge in consumption will have driven US GDP growth to 7.0% in Q1… (Thu.) … while we expect the euro-zone and Czech economies contracted in Q1 …
23rd April 2021
UK government borrowing probably hit a peacetime record in March (07.00 BST) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 50bp (11.30 BST) Strong April PMIs look likely in the US & UK, but they may have declined in Europe Key Market Themes …
22nd April 2021
Higher energy prices probably pushed up inflation in the UK in March (07.00 BST) We think inflation in South Africa rose to 3.5% y/y, primarily due to base effects (09.00 BST) We expect the Bank of Canada to reduce the pace of its asset purchases (15.00 …
20th April 2021
Euro-zone bank lending survey likely to reinforce ECB’s resolve to keep policy loose UK unemployment rate probably remained around 5.0% in February (07.00 BST) Read our highest conviction macro calls, and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
19th April 2021
ECB may explain reasons behind the limited rise in PEPP purchases since its last meeting (Thu.) We expect PMI surveys to have rebounded in the UK, but fallen in the euro-zone in April (Fri.) Russia’s central bank likely to hike rates in response to high …
16th April 2021
We think China’s Q1 GDP growth slowed in q/q terms (03.00 BST) Euro-zone inflation probably remained low in March, but it could pick up soon (10.00 BST) April US consumer confidence may have been boosted by stimulus & reopening (15.00 BST) Key Market …
15th April 2021
We think that US retail sales surged by 8.5% m/m in March… (13.30 BST) …and US industrial production rebounded by 2.8% m/m. (14.15 BST) We expect Turkey’s central bank to cut the policy rate by 200bp. (12.00 BST) Key Market Themes Although the stock …
14th April 2021
We think that transitory factors pushed inflation in Sweden above 2% in March (08.30 BST) Industrial production in the euro-zone probably fell due to supply shortages (10.00 BST) We expect March retail sales in the US surged following weaker sales last …
13th April 2021
US headline CPI likely to have jumped above 2% in March (13.30 BST) We think that the UK economy grew by 0.5% m/m in February (07.00 BST) Strong foreign demand probably continued to boost China’s exports last month Key Market Themes Although the euro has …
12th April 2021
US retail sales & industrial production probably surged last month (Wed.) We think that Turkey’s central bank will cut rates by 200bp, to 17.00% (Thu.) Read our highest convictions macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
9th April 2021
Energy price effects may have boosted inflation in China, Brazil and Sweden last month We think that Germany’s industrial production rose strongly in April (07.00 BST) Canada’s employment probably grew in March, but is unlikely to do so this month (13.30 …
8th April 2021
We expect higher government bond yields in the US than in other developed markets (DMs) to push the US dollar up, as has generally been the case since the Global Financial Crisis. Admittedly, the relationship between the government bond yield gap and the …
Minutes from the Fed’s March meeting could reveal strength of the dovish consensus Sweden’s activity data likely to have held up reasonably well in February (08.30 BST) Energy base effects probably drove a sharp rise in Mexico’s inflation last month …
7th April 2021
PMIs in Spain and Italy probably rose in March We think the US trade deficit widened in February (13.30 BST) FOMC minutes may provide some indication of how strong dovish consensus is (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes While any changes to the US tax code may …
6th April 2021
We expect US non-farm payroll to have increased by 700,000 in March (Fri. 2 nd April) Fed and ECB minutes may shed more light on the central banks’ latest thinking (Wed. & Thu.) We think central banks in India and Poland will keep their policy rates on …
1st April 2021
Euro-zone inflation probably increased in March and is likely to keep rising (10.00 BST) We expect the ADP employment report to point to a 700,000 gain in US non-farm payrolls US President Biden to unveil plans for a major infrastructure spending package …
30th March 2021
Japan’s unemployment rate probably stayed low in February (00.30 BST) Euro-zone economic sentiment may have improved this month (10.00 BST) Join us for a Drop-In on the Swiss franc on Tuesday (15.00 BST) Key Market Themes We expect a further divergence in …
29th March 2021
High frequency data point to an upturn in UK retail sales volumes in February (07.00 GMT) We expect Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index to have risen in March (09.00 GMT) US real consumption likely to have fallen temporarily last month (12.30 GMT) Key …
25th March 2021
Philippines’ central bank unlikely to cut rates despite economic weakness (08.00 GMT) We think that inflation in Brazil rose sharply earlier this month (12.00 GMT) Falling inflation in South Africa probably rules out a rate hike this week (13.00 GMT) Key …
24th March 2021
We think that UK consumer price inflation nudged up in February (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone composite PMI likely to have declined slightly (09.00 GMT) Severe weather probably weighed on US durable goods orders last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes It is a …
23rd March 2021
We think that the UK’s unemployment rate held roughly steady in January (07.00 GMT) Hungary’s central bank not likely to tighten, despite above-target inflation (13.00 GMT) Key Fed speakers will probably reiterate Powell’s dovish line Key Market Themes …
22nd March 2021
Unlike Brazil, Turkey & Russia, we think most other EM central banks will put off hiking We think flash PMIs in the UK and the euro-zone will point to activity remaining subdued The fall in US personal income & spending in Feb. will probably be reversed …
19th March 2021
The BoJ may tweak some of its policy settings, including its yield curve target tolerance band UK government borrowing is likely to have remained high in February (07.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.25% (10.30 …
18th March 2021
Fed’s Powell likely to reiterate dovish message (18.00 GMT, Wed.) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike its one week repo rate by 100bp (11.00 GMT, Thu.) BoE could emphasise dovish rates guidance, but not likely to up QE buying (12.00 GMT, Thu.) Key …
17th March 2021
Headline inflation in Canada likely edged up in February (12.30 GMT) We think the Fed will reaffirm its intention to keep policy accommodative (18.00 GMT) We expect that Brazil’s central bank will start tightening policy with a 50 bp hike (21.00 GMT) Key …
16th March 2021
Severe weather probably weighed on US retail sales in February… (12.30 GMT) … but industrial production may have held up slightly better (13.15 GMT) Fed, BoJ and BoE meetings this week may shed more light on their thinking about rise in yields Key Market …
15th March 2021
We expect the Fed to reiterate that policy tightening is still far away (Wed.) Central banks in Brazil and Turkey look likely to hike their policy rates (Wed. & Thu.) US industrial production and retail sales growth probably weakened in February (Tue.) …
12th March 2021
UK economy is likely to have contracted by 3% m/m in March (07.00 GMT) We think that euro-zone industrial production grew by 0.7% m/m in January (10.00 GMT) US consumer confidence probably rose in early March (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The ECB ’s …
11th March 2021
We now expect that the US dollar will strengthen somewhat over the next couple of years as the US economy outperforms and its policy mix diverges from that in most other major economies. Last year, the US dollar went through two distinct phases. The …
US House of Representatives set to give final approval to Biden’s stimulus package later today We think inflation in Brazil rose in February, pointing to a rate hike next week (12.00 GMT) The ECB’s policy meeting likely to focus on how it responds to …
10th March 2021
Risks to Brazil’s sovereign bond market building Bank of Canada likely to reiterate commitment to keep policy loose for a long time We think that consumer price inflation picked up in the US, but remained subdued in China Key Market Themes We doubt the …
9th March 2021
The US Senate is likely to pass President Biden’s $1.9 fiscal stimulus over the next few days We think credit growth in China softened, consistent with activity slowing later in 2021 (Sun.) The BoE and ECB will probably respond to higher yields with …
5th March 2021
The rise of government bond yields in the US and other developed markets (DMs) this year has made a significant impact on currency markets and, if it continues, would challenge our forecast for a weaker dollar. For most of last year, the primary driver of …
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in February (13.30 GMT) China’s government to present budget as National People’s Congress kicks off Read our highest-conviction macroeconomic and financial market forecasts here Key Market Themes We …
4th March 2021
