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The Omicron outbreak probably weighed on UK GDP in December (07.00 GMT) We think Russia’s central bank will hike interest rates by 100bp, to 9.5% (10.30 GMT) We expect US consumer confidence to have ticked up in early February (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
10th February 2022
Although a major drop in US equities poses a key downside risk to our view that the US dollar will rise, we doubt the slight underperformance of US equities relative to global equities that we forecast would prevent the greenback from appreciating against …
US headline inflation probably remained above 7% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Mexico and Peru to hike their policy rates by a further 50bp… … and the Reserve Bank of India to raise its revere repo rate by 15bp to 3.5% (04.30 GMT) Key …
9th February 2022
Romania’s central bank may raise its policy rate by 25bp, to 2.25% We expect Thailand’s central bank to stand pat throughout 2022 (07.00 GMT) Brazil’s inflation probably rose further last month (12.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite recent increases, we …
8th February 2022
We expect Poland’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 50bp to 2.75% We think that the US trade deficit widened in December (13.30 GMT) Find our macro forecasts in our latest Global Economic Outlook here Key Market Themes We don’t think government …
7th February 2022
A week after the FOMC’s hawkish message sent the US dollar soaring, the ECB delivered an even bigger surprise at yesterday’s policy meeting by opening the door to policy rate hikes later this year. That resulted in the euro’s largest single-day gain …
4th February 2022
China’s FX data could provide clues on PBOC exchange rate intervention (Mon.) US CPI inflation may have been close to its peak in January (Thu.) We expect rate hikes in Russia, Mexico, Poland and Romania next week Key Market Themes Today’s …
We expect most emerging market (EM) currencies to struggle, despite their strong start to 2022, as commodity prices fall and the Fed seeks to tighten financial conditions. That said, we think that most EM currencies will hold up a bit better than last …
We think euro-zone retail sales fell in December (10.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have caused US payrolls to fall in January (13.30 GMT) Virus cases may have weighed on employment in Canada as well (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Today’s hawkish surprises …
3rd February 2022
We expect the Bank of England to raise Bank Rate by 25bp, to 0.5% (12.00 GMT) In contrast, the ECB will probably keep its policy settings unchanged (12.45 GMT) We think the US ISM services index dropped sharply last month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes We …
2nd February 2022
Euro-zone inflation probably fell back a bit in January (10.00 GMT) January’s US ADP employment data may give an indication of Omicron’s impact (13.15 GMT) We expect Brazil’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 150bp (21.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
1st February 2022
We expect the RBA to announce an end to its bond purchases (00.30 GMT) Omicron cases may have weighed on UK households’ borrowing in December (09.30 GMT) The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes While we think …
31st January 2022
The trade-weighted US dollar reached its highest level since July 2020 this week after short-term rate differentials moved strongly in its favour following Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC meeting . Admittedly, with so many Fed rate hikes discounted this year, we …
28th January 2022
We think that the BOE will hike by 25bp on Thursday … … but that the ECB will leave policy settings unchanged Omicron cases will probably have weighed on US employment growth this month (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even if this month’s falls in equity prices …
GDP data for Germany may show that its economy contracted in Q4 (09.00 GMT) The Economic Sentiment Indicator for the euro-zone probably fell this month (10.00 GMT) We think Colombia’s central bank will increase the pace of its policy tightening (18.00 …
27th January 2022
We expect the major central and eastern European (CEE) currencies to depreciate against the euro this year. We think that the Czech koruna will continue to fare better than the other CEE currencies, although not by as much as last year. To recap, the …
Fed likely to hint that a first rate hike may be forthcoming in March (Wed. 19.00 GMT) We think US GDP grew by 4.6% annualised in Q4 (Thu. 13.30 GMT) We expect central banks in Chile and South Africa to hike rates further (Wed. & Thu.) Key Market Themes …
26th January 2022
We suspect that the Bank of Canada will hold off raising rates this month (15.00 GMT) The Fed may hint that a first rate hike is likely to come in March (19.00 GMT) We expect Chile’s central bank to hike by 125bp (21.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Despite its …
25th January 2022
Germany’s IfO Survey probably fell back a bit this month (09.00 GMT) We expect Hungary’s central bank to raise its policy rate by 30bp (13.00 GMT) The Omicron wave may have weighed on consumer confidence in the US (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes US “big …
24th January 2022
Fed officials may issue a hawkish statement at the upcoming FOMC meeting (Wed.) We expect central banks in Chile, Colombia and South Africa to hike rates next week Annual US wage growth may have reached 5% in Q4 (Thu.) Key Market Themes Although we think …
21st January 2022
The trade-weighted US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher, reversing some of its recent decline. But the dollar strength has mostly been against G10 currencies; despite the fall in US equities this week, the “riskier” emerging market (EM) …
Although the dollar’s rally has stalled over the past six weeks or so, and may tread water for a while longer, we think that it will ultimately appreciate a bit further this year and next. The key driver of the greenback’s rise since the middle of last …
20th January 2022
We expect UK retail sales to have fallen in December (Fri. 07.00 GMT) Japan’s headline inflation probably edged up to 0.8% last month (Thu. 23.30 GMT) Read our key calls for economies and markets in the year ahead here Key Market Themes For the first time …
We expect China’s central bank to cut its 1-year Loan Prime Rate by 10bp (01.30 GMT) But we think that Turkey’s central bank will pause its easing cycle (11.00 GMT) We also expect interest rates to be left on hold in Indonesia, Malaysia and Norway Key …
19th January 2022
We think that UK inflation will hold steady at its 10-year high of 5.1% (07.00 GMT) We expect Canada’s inflation to have reached its highest level since 1991 (13.30 GMT) Register here for our webinar event “The World in 2022” Key Market Themes With …
18th January 2022
We expect the Bank of Japan will lift its inflation forecast a little We think that the UK labour market held up well in December (07.00 GMT) The Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US probably remained strong (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes Although …
17th January 2022
Despite several events in the US this week which would usually point to a stronger dollar – the highest US inflation print since the early 1980s , hawkish comments from both Chair Powell and Vice Chair Brainard, and a sharp rise in short-dated government …
14th January 2022
The deadlocked end to talks between Russia, the US and NATO and subsequent hawkish noises from Russian officials have caused a risk premium to emerge on Russian asset prices and will keep the prospect of tighter Western sanctions on the table. The …
China’s economy probably failed to gain much momentum last quarter (Monday) The Bank of Japan may revise up its inflation forecasts at its policy meeting (Tuesday) We suspect that UK inflation remained above 5%, a 10-year high, last month (Tuesday) Key …
China’s currency was remarkably stable against the US dollar in 2021 and appreciated against other major currencies. But we doubt that trend will continue this year: a slowing economy, monetary policy easing, and a gradual normalisation of China’s current …
13th January 2022
We expect US retail sales fell slightly in December (13.30 GMT) We think that the UK economy expanded in November (07.00 GMT) China’s exports probably remained strong last month, while imports softened Key Market Themes The US dollar has started the year …
We do not think the returns from many financial assets will be as good in 2022 as they were in 2021. For a start, we envisage a sell-off in government bonds in most places, reflecting the outlook for monetary policy. And, in general, we foresee an …
We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all these currencies to lose ground against the US dollar this …
We think that US producer price inflation picked up in December (13.30 GMT) Lael Brainard likely to reiterate the hawkish line taken by Fed Chair Powell (15.00 GMT) Register here for our Drop-In event on Omicron, hawkish central banks and the 2022 outlook …
12th January 2022
Consumer and producer price inflation in China probably fell back last month (01.30 GMT) Euro-zone industrial production may have dipped in November (10.00 GMT) We think US headline CPI rose above 7% in December (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes We expect …
11th January 2022
Australia’s trade balance was probably broadly unchanged in November (01.30 GMT) We think Brazil’s inflation fell in December, but remained well above target (12.00 GMT) Chair Powell’s confirmation hearing may provide hints about the Fed’s plans (15.00 …
10th January 2022
We think headline CPI inflation fell to 1.4% in China in December... (Wed.) ... but rose to above 7% in the US last month (Wed.) US retail sales and industrial production probably edged lower in December (Fri.) Key Market Themes Even though investors …
7th January 2022
Today’s US non-farm payrolls report had little impact on currency markets, with the dollar set to end the week broadly unchanged against most other currencies. This extends a pattern of low volatility in FX markets over the past few weeks, leaving the DXY …
Although we wouldn’t be surprised if the rally in the US dollar paused in the short term, we still expect the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US and monetary tightening there to push the greenback higher against most currencies in 2022. …
6th January 2022
Peru’s central bank is likely to hike its policy rate by another 50bp on Thursday (23.00 GMT) We expect euro-zone HICP inflation edged up to around 5.0% in December (10.00 GMT) We think that US non-farm payrolls increased by 350,000 last month (13.30 GMT) …
Fed minutes may shed more light on the timing of lift-off in the US (Wed., 19.00 GMT) We expect the US ISM Services Index to have dropped back in December (Thu., 15.00 GMT) We think Germany’s headline inflation edged down last month (Thu.,13.00 GMT) Key …
5th January 2022
Euro-zone PMIs for December likely to have been revised down (09.00 GMT) Fed minutes may provide more detail on the central bank’s hawkish shift (19.00 GMT) See our latest research on the economic impact of the Omicron variant here Key Market Themes After …
4th January 2022
We think the Bank of Thailand will keep rates on hold tomorrow... (07.05 GMT) … but we expect a 75bp hike from the Czech National Bank (13.30 GMT) Factory closures and virus restrictions may have weighed on China’s PMIs this month Key Market Themes Even …
21st December 2021
We think that UK public borrowing was in line with OBR estimates last month (07.00 GMT) New restrictions probably hurt euro-zone consumer confidence in December (15.00 GMT) Find our Chief Economist’s five key reads from 2021 here Key Market Themes If …
20th December 2021
Four central themes in currency markets this year have been the US dollar’s steady grind higher since June, the underperformance of other safe-haven currencies, the remarkable stability of the USD/CNY exchange rate, and the large falls in several emerging …
This week’s much-anticipated round of central bank policy announcements made only limited impact on currency markets, which for the most part are broadly unchanged on the week. Indeed, despite the significant hawkish shift in the FOMC’s message on …
17th December 2021
We think that policymakers in China could deliver a surprise rate cut (Mon.) But the Czech central bank is likely to continue with its tightening cycle (Wed.) We forecast a strong rise in headline US durable goods orders (Thu.) Key Market Themes While the …
While the dollar has not made much further headway this month, despite the Fed’s hawkish message at its latest policy meeting, we think the key underlying drivers of the greenback’s rally – the relative strength of the US recovery and the Fed’s shift …
The recent rally in the US dollar has been driven by strong economic fundamentals in the US relative to other major economies and a favourable shift in yield differentials, leaving the greenback only a bit above our estimates of “fair” value. We expect …
UK retail sale probably rose significantly in November (07.00 GMT) Germany’s Ifo likely to have fallen again in December amid tighter restrictions (09.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to hike its policy rate by 75bp to 8.25% (10.30 GMT) Key Market …
16th December 2021
