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We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by 5 million in June (13.30 BST) The euro-zone unemployment rate probably rose from 7.3% to 7.6% in May (10.00 BST) We expect Swiss core inflation to have remained in negative territory last month (07.30 BST) Key …
1st July 2020
Sweden’s Riksbank likely to stand pat on Wednesday, but cut rates later this year (07.30 BST) The ISM manufacturing survey will probably point to a strong rebound in June (15.00 BST) The Fed’s June minutes may give further clues on yield curve control …
30th June 2020
China’s official PMIs will probably show that infrastructure construction accelerated We think that US consumer confidence rebounded in June (15.00 BST) Colombia’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate to 2.25% (16.00 BST) Key Market Themes The …
29th June 2020
It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government policies, many economies should be able more or less to …
We think that real personal spending in the US increased by 12% m/m in May (13.30 BST) ECB data to reveal whether bank lending growth in the E-Z continued to rise in May (9.00 BST) We expect Mexico’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp to 5.00% …
25th June 2020
We suspect that the real yields of US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) will fall a bit further, fuelling renewed gains in risky assets and underpinning gold despite a reduction in safe-haven demand. To re-cap, the real yields of TIPS have …
24th June 2020
We think that central banks in Turkey, Egypt and Mexico will cut rates further … … but expect monetary policymakers in the Philippines to remain on hold (09.00 BST) US equipment investment may have started to rebound in May (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
We think that the Markit Flash PMIs will show a marked improvement from May … … especially in the US where we forecast both PMIs to be above 50 Hungary’s central bank is likely to stand pat for now, but more easing is coming in our view Key Market Themes …
22nd June 2020
Flash PMIs are likely to suggest that economic recoveries continued in June We expect central banks in Mexico, Turkey, Thailand and Egypt to cut rates next week… …but those in New Zealand, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Philippines to stand pat Key …
19th June 2020
EU leaders set to discuss the EC’s proposal for a €750bn joint recovery fund (09.00 BST) Russia’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate to a post-Soviet low of 4.50% (14.00 BST) May UK retail sales data to give first indication of the speed of the …
18th June 2020
We think that central banks in Brazil, Indonesia and Thailand will cut their policy rates further The Bank of England is likely to expand its QE programme by £100bn (12.00 BST) US initial jobless claims probably fell further last week (13.30 BST) Key …
17th June 2020
The sizes and sources of second waves of COVID-19 are likely to be key factors in determining how much ground, if any, equities cede to government bonds in coming months. While our forecasts allow for new small, localised outbreaks in advanced economies, …
Central bank of Brazil likely to cut its policy rate by 75bp to 2.25% We think that headline inflation fell from 0.8% to 0.6% in the UK last month … (07.00 BST) … and that it remained in negative territory in Canada (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes Even if …
16th June 2020
US retail sales and industrial production probably rebounded in May (13.30 BST & 14.45 BST) We expect the Bank of Japan to expand its lending schemes Central banks in Poland and Chile likely to stand pat on Tuesday Key Market Themes Concerns about a …
15th June 2020
BoE likely to announce more QE, while BoJ may expand its lending programmes We think US retail sales rebounded in May (Tuesday) Fiscal stimulus probably pushed up China’s investment growth in May (Monday) Key Market Themes Neither the Fed ’s latest …
12th June 2020
We expect a 20% m/m drop in UK’s GDP in April (07.00 BST) Euro-zone’s industrial production is likely to have plunged in April (10.00 BST) The University of Michigan consumer confidence index probably continued to rebound in June Key Market Themes We …
11th June 2020
Fed likely to strengthen its forward guidance on interest rates (Wednesday) China’s exports probably fell by 2.0% y/y in May (Sunday) We think that Brazil’s headline inflation fell from to 2.4% to just 1.8% in May (Wednesday) Key Market Themes Today’s far …
5th June 2020
If we are right that the world faces a period of low inflation over the next few years investors are unlikely to begin anticipating tighter monetary policy and so undermine the returns from government bonds. We think it is much more likely that returns …
“Risky” assets have comfortably outperformed “safe” ones over the past month, even as evidence of the scale of the economic damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak has continued to mount. We suspect that this will continue for a while yet . We argued …
4th June 2020
Germany’s industrial orders for April are likely to have slumped (07.00 BST) US non-farm payrolls probably fell by 9 million in May (13.30 BST) We think that inflation in Russia picked up a bit, but remained below target (14.00 BST) Key Market Themes The …
We think the ECB will expand its asset purchases under the PEPP (12.45 BST) US jobless claims figures could point to the labour market turning a corner (13.30 BST) Deflation in Switzerland probably deepened in May (07.30 BST) Key Market Themes The …
3rd June 2020
We think that the euro-zone’s unemployment rate jumped in April, despite retention schemes Bank of Canada may announce an expansion to its corporate bond purchases (15.00 BST) US ISM non-manufacturing index likely to have bounced back only slightly in May …
2nd June 2020
May PMIs likely to show activity is recovering in most economies, albeit slowly (Mon.-Wed.) We expect the ECB to agree a further €500bn of asset purchases and an extension of the PEPP US non-farm payrolls may have fallen by a further 9 million in May …
29th May 2020
We anticipate that financial repression will bear down on the renewed low level of volatility of Treasuries, while facilitating a further decline in the level of volatility of US equities . Against this backdrop, we project that the returns from the …
We think US real personal spending fell by about 14% m/m in April (13.30 BST) We expect euro-zone headline inflation to have held steady at 0.3% in May (10.00 BST) Japan’s unemployment rate is likely to have risen from 2.5% to 2.8% in April (00.30 BST) …
28th May 2020
The EC’s economic sentiment indicator probably rebounded in May (10.00 BST) We think that policymakers in Poland and Korea will cut their policy rates further US initial jobless claims may have declined to around 2 million last week (13.30 BST) Key Market …
27th May 2020
European Commission set to publish its proposal for an EU joint fiscal stimulus package The central bank of Korea may launch quantitative easing (Thursday) We think economic sentiment in the US and the euro-zone started to recover in May Key Market Themes …
22nd May 2020
Although US equities still have a lot of lost ground to make up on long-dated Treasuries since the outbreak of coronavirus, we think that they will do so over time as the Fed engages in renewed financial repression. The underperformance of US equities …
China’s National People’s Congress set to announce 2020 economic targets We think UK retail sales contracted by 30% m/m (07.00 BST) Japan’s headline inflation probably fell to 0.0% in April (00.30 BST) Key Market Themes A lot has been made of the …
21st May 2020
FOMC meeting minutes to provide further insight into the Fed’s crisis response (19.00 BST) Flash PMIs may indicate what effect the gradual easing of lockdown measures is having We think that Turkey’s central bank will cut rates by a further 50bp (12.00 …
20th May 2020
China’s one-year loan prime rate likely to be lowered by 10bp, to 3.75% (02.30 BST) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably remained depressed in May (15.00 BST) We think UK headline inflation fell below 1% in April (07.00 BST) Key Market Themes While the …
19th May 2020
Fed Chair Powell to speak before the Senate and in a virtual “Fed Listens” event UK public finances data may give an early indication of the fiscal cost of the pandemic We think that central banks in Turkey, South Africa and Thailand will cut rates …
15th May 2020
US industrial production and retail sales probably fell by 10-15% m/m in April In contrast, both IP and retail sales are likely to have recovered further in China (03.00 BST) We think Germany’s GDP contracted by 2% q/q in the first quarter (07.00 BST) Key …
14th May 2020
US initial jobless claims data likely to highlight that unemployment is still rising (13.30 BST) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut its policy rate by 100bp to 5.0% (19.00 BST) Australia’s unemployment rate is likely to have risen from 5.2% to …
13th May 2020
The recent performance of different “factors” in the US stock market may seem surprising during the outbreak of coronavirus, given the adverse implications for the economy of the measures taken to control its spread. Like several other ongoing …
12th May 2020
UK Government is providing further details on its roadmap for reopening the economy We think that headline consumer price inflation fell sharply in both the US and China in April India’s industrial production is likely to have slumped in March (13.00 BST) …
11th May 2020
We think US non-farm payrolls fell by a record 22.5 million in April (13.30 BST) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut it policy rate by 100bp to 5.0% (Thursday 14 th ) German GDP is likely to have contracted by 2.0% q/q in Q1 (Friday 15 th ) Key …
7th May 2020
We think US initial jobless declined further last week (13.30 BST) The Bank of England may extend its QE programme (12.00 BST) We expect China’s exports to have fallen by 15% y/y in April Key Market Themes A lot has been made of the divergence between the …
6th May 2020
Brazil’s central bank is likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.25% We think that euro-zone retail sales slumped at a double-digit pace in March (10.00 BST) US ADP employment probably dropped by more than 20 million in April (14.15 BST) Key Market …
5th May 2020
We expect the returns from EM sovereign dollar bonds to be quite strong over the next few years, as the global economy gradually recovers. With some notable exceptions, we think that the dollar bonds of those countries and EM regions which have suffered …
While the recent outperformance of “risky” assets has faltered in the past few days, we are sceptical of the idea that it has all been built on an overly-optimistic view of the economic outlook, for two reasons . First, there have been huge disparities in …
After slashing rates to 0.25% and launching QE in March, the RBA will probably stand pat Inflation in Switzerland is likely to have fallen further into negative territory in April We think that the US ISM non-manufacturing index plunged to a record low of …
4th May 2020
We think US non-farm payrolls fell by a record 20-25 million in April (Friday) April PMIs are likely to confirm that lockdowns are weighing heavily on activity (Wednesday) We expect the central bank of Brazil to cut the Selic rate by 50bp to 3.25% …
1st May 2020
ECB unveils more generous TLTRO terms, but will not increase its asset purchases yet Colombia’s central bank likely to cut its policy rate by 50bp, to 3.25%, later on Thursday The US ISM manufacturing index probably plunged in April (Friday, 15.00 BST) …
30th April 2020
Fed may hint at scope to expand support programmes if needed (19.00 BST) China’s official PMIs likely to point to continued recovery in the economy (02.00 BST) We think that the ECB will increase the size of its PEPP to put a lid on peripheral bond …
29th April 2020
Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator probably slumped in April (10.00 BST) We think that US GDP contracted by about 3.5% annualised in Q1 (13.30 BST) Fed may hint at scope to expand support programmes if needed (19.00 BST) Key Market Themes Earnings …
28th April 2020
We suspect that the recent underperformance of MSCI’s UK Index relative to its USA Index will peter out when the world starts to get back to normal after coronavirus. The MSCI World Index includes mid- and large-cap equities in 23 developed countries, …
27th April 2020
We expect the BoJ to cut its policy rate by 10bp, to -0.20% (Tuesday) ECB likely to expand its asset purchases, while the Fed and Riksbank leave policy unchanged China’s official PMIs will probably point to further recovery, but at a slow pace (Thursday) …
24th April 2020
Ifo’s Business Climate Indicator for Germany is all but certain to have plunged in April We expect Russia’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 50bp (11.30 BST) US durable goods orders may have dropped by 15% m/m in March (13.30 BST) Key Market Themes …
23rd April 2020
Flash PMIs likely to show that economic activity in DMs weakened even further in April US initial jobless claims probably remained extremely high last week (13.30 BST) We think that Korean GDP fell by about 3.0% q/q in the first quarter (00.00 BST) Key …
22nd April 2020
