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We expect the FOMC to reiterate its commitment to accommodative policy today Economic sentiment may have deteriorated in Europe in January (10:00 GMT) US GDP growth probably slowed in Q4 (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes It seems very unlikely that the FOMC …
27th January 2021
Fed Chair Powell may push back against talk of normalising policy any time soon (19.00 GMT) We expect Chile’s central bank to keep its policy rate on hold (21.00 GMT) Fresh elections in Italy now appears less likely Key Market Themes One of the salient …
26th January 2021
We think that the UK’s unemployment rate rose to 5.1% in November (07.00 GMT) We expect central banks in Hungary and Nigeria to leave interest rates on hold Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes …
25th January 2021
The relative valuation of the US stock and corporate bond markets is another piece of evidence against the idea that equities in general are currently in a bubble. Their relative valuation today contrasts with the situation before collapses in the stock …
22nd January 2021
We expect Fed Chair Powell to push back on talk of tapering at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting Survey data will probably point to the euro-zone economy struggling in January Central banks in Hungary, Chile and Colombia all likely to keep rates on hold Key Market …
UK public finances data will probably show a rising deficit for December (07.00 GMT) We expect restrictions continued to weigh on euro-zone and UK flash PMIs (09.00 GMT) Similarly, US flash PMIs will provide a gauge for how the recovery there is faring …
21st January 2021
Focus to turn to the prospects for more fiscal support after Biden’s inauguration Australia’s unemployment rate probably declined in December (09.00 GMT) ECB unlikely to tweak policy again just yet, despite weak inflation data (12.45 GMT) Key Market …
20th January 2021
Fiscal negotiations in the US to get underway following Biden’s inauguration Bank of Canada likely to keep its policy rate on hold and upgrade its forecasts (15.00 GMT) Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key …
19th January 2021
US fiscal policy in the limelight as Biden inauguration nears ECB survey likely to show euro-zone banks became more cautious about lending in Q4 Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes While the …
18th January 2021
While we doubt that the US stock market’s current valuation will prevent it from making further gains, the fact that valuations are much lower in other parts of the world suggests to us that equities there could outperform over the coming years. Much …
15th January 2021
We estimate that the UK’s November lockdown reduced GDP by about 8% m/m (07.00 GMT) US retail sales probably fell in December as virus restrictions took their toll… (13.30 GMT) … but we think that industrial production held up better (14.15 GMT) Key …
14th January 2021
We don’t think that there is a bubble in the US stock market. Yet even if we are wrong, it may inflate further before bursting given the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. To re-cap, one widely watched gauge of the US stock market’s valuation is …
China’s trade data likely to point to a moderation in foreign demand Chair Powell could shed light on how the Fed would react to a stronger rebound in activity President-elect Joe Biden is set to unveil more details of his fiscal stimulus plans Key Market …
13th January 2021
Euro-zone industrial production probably edged up further in November (10:00 GMT) We think US CPI inflation remained subdued in December (13:30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated page Key Market Themes …
12th January 2021
Brazil’s inflation probably remained above the central bank’s target last month (12.00 GMT) We expect a drop in India’s inflation to pave the way for further interest rate cuts (12.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts …
11th January 2021
US headline CPI inflation probably ticked up in December (Wednesday) We think that UK GDP fell by 8% in November due to lockdown restrictions (Friday) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated page Key Market Themes …
8th January 2021
Although the incoming economic data are likely to remain poor until around mid-2021, we forecast that “risky” assets will continue to outperform “safe” ones comfortably over the next couple of years as a whole. We also anticipate that this will be …
7th January 2021
Industrial production in Germany probably rose despite renewed lockdowns (07.00 GMT) The unemployment rate in the euro-zone may have edged up to 8.5% (10.00 GMT) We expect US employment in December dropped for the first time since April (13.30 GMT) Key …
We think inflation in Mexico fell a little last month, paving the way for more monetary easing ISM services index likely to add to evidence that the US economy is slowing (15.00 GMT) You can track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine …
6th January 2021
New UK lockdown imposed, but we still expect a strong economic recovery later in 2021 We think that Italy’s composite PMI rose in December as restrictions were eased (08.45 GMT) FOMC minutes may shed light on the Fed’s plans for large-scale asset …
5th January 2021
Headline inflation in Switzerland likely to have remained negative in December (07.30 GMT) We doubt that US Senate runoff election results will substantially alter the policy outlook ISM manufacturing index probably dropped back last month (15.00 GMT) Key …
4th January 2021
We anticipate that UK mid- and large-cap equities will fare much better in 2021 than they have in 2020, provided vaccines prove effective in winning the battle against COVID-19. The MSCI World Index includes mid- and large-cap equities in 23 developed …
23rd December 2020
Monthly UK gov’t borrowing will probably reach its highest level since May (07.00 GMT) We expect existing home sales in the US dropped back in November (15.00 GMT) A selection of key data and events through year-end are shown in the calendar below Key …
21st December 2020
We think that euro-zone consumer confidence fell back in December (Monday) US November personal spending figures likely to point to a drop in consumption (Wednesday) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike its one-week repo rate by 150bp (Thursday) Key …
18th December 2020
We expect Mexico’s c. bank to hold fire for now, but cut again in 2021 (Thu., 19.00 GMT) UK retail sales probably fell last month (Fri., 07.00 GMT) We think that the German Ifo will have declined again in December (Fri., 09.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
17th December 2020
We disagree with the idea that the valuations of most “risky” assets have risen to unsustainably high levels. In fact, we think that the valuation of the US stock market could have scope to rise a little higher, and the spreads of US corporate bonds fall …
Fed set to unveil new guidance on its large-scale asset purchases (Wed., 19.00 GMT) BoE may give some clues as to how it would react to a no-deal Brexit (Thu., 12.00 GMT) Mexico’s central bank likely to hold fire for now, but cut again in 2021 (Thu., …
16th December 2020
We think that activity in China continued to improve in November (02.00 GMT) The UK unemployment rate probably ticked up in October (07.00 GMT) The US industrial recovery is likely to have continued last month (15.15 GMT) Key Market Themes The Australian …
14th December 2020
Sunday the new deadline as Brexit talks go down to the wire China’s industrial production and consumer spending probably rose strongly again (Tue.) Fed likely to update its guidance on large-scale asset purchases (Wed.) Key Market Themes With the currency …
11th December 2020
Although the level of “Equity Q” for the US non-financial corporate sector has risen to a record high, we are wary of concluding that the stock market is in an unprecedented bubble that is bound to burst. To re-cap, Equity Q – which was popularised by the …
Peru’s central bank will probably keep interest rates on hold later today (23:00 GMT) We expect Korean trade data to show a continued pickup in global demand Consumer confidence in the US may have declined this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
10th December 2020
We expect the ECB to extend and increase the PEPP and announce more TLTROs (12.45 GMT) We think US core CPI inflation rose only a little in November (08.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key …
9th December 2020
Headline consumer price inflation in China probably fell to its lowest since 2010 … … but only due to falling pork prices – core inflation likely to have risen (01.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated …
8th December 2020
US fiscal policy in the spotlight with a bipartisan deal on the table We think that South Africa’s economy grew by around 10% q/q in Q3 (09.30 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page Key Market …
7th December 2020
We think UK October GDP data will show the recovery stalled prior to lockdowns (Thu.) We expect the ECB to announce an extension to pandemic stimulus measures (Thu.) US fiscal negotiations in the spotlight again next week, with another relief deal on the …
4th December 2020
New restrictions probably meant a smaller rise in November’s non-farm payrolls (13.30 GMT) An uptick in Russia’s inflation might take further rate cuts off the table for now (16.00 GMT) Ireland’s and Greece’s Q3 GDP data likely to show rebounds, but …
3rd December 2020
Good news about progress on coronavirus vaccines in the past month has started, or fuelled, a number of trends which we broadly expect to last through 2021, as those vaccines help the global economy reopen and policy mostly remains supportive. The trends …
2nd December 2020
Brazil GDP data likely to show the economy was only 3.5% smaller than pre-virus in Q3 We think that the US ISM services index dropped back in November (14.45 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
The unemployment rate in the euro-zone probably edged up in October (10.00 GMT) We expect the November ADP report to show US employment growth slowing (13.15 GMT) Read our highest-conviction macro and financial market forecasts on our dedicated new page …
1st December 2020
We think that the outperformance of equities in EM EMEA and Latin America relative to those in EM Asia in November is a sign of things to come, as the world recovers from COVID-19. The outperformance of the MSCI EM EMEA and Latin America indices relative …
30th November 2020
The RBA looks set to leave monetary policy on hold tomorrow (03.30 GMT) We think Swiss and Canadian GDP rebounded strongly in Q3 The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably fell in November (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The euro has risen to its highest level …
We expect Australia’s central bank to keep policy unchanged (Tuesday) We think that Brazil’s economy rebounded strongly in Q3 (Thursday) Spread of COVID-19 probably meant smaller gains in November’s non-farm payrolls (Friday) Key Market Themes Given this …
27th November 2020
Lighter UK restrictions from 2 nd December unlikely to improve economic outlook much Euro-zone economic sentiment indicator probably fell in November (10.00 GMT) ECB minutes reiterate that more easing is likely in December Key Market Themes Although this …
26th November 2020
Minutes from the ECB could indicate its plans for the upcoming December meeting … … while we expect the Riksbank will increase the size of its QE programme (08.30 GMT) US markets are closed tomorrow for the Thanksgiving Day holiday Key Market Themes We …
25th November 2020
We anticipate that MSCI’s benchmark index of mid- and large-cap equities in the US will underperform its index of those in other developed markets, as investors continue to focus more on the roll-out of effective COVID-19 vaccines than on the current …
The UK’s OBR may revise down its economic forecasts (13.00 GMT) US durable goods orders probably continued to recover in October… (13.30 GMT) … but we suspect consumption didn’t hold up quite as well (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes Although the US dollar …
24th November 2020
We think Germany’s Ifo business climate indicator fell in November (09:00 GMT) US consumer confidence may have declined further this month as well (15:00 GMT) Mid-month data likely to show inflation in Brazil and Mexico around 4% Key Market Themes We …
23rd November 2020
US equity real estate investment trusts ( REITs) have underperformed ordinary US equities considerably in 2020 despite a plunge in US Treasury yields, which usually provides more of a boost to the former than the latter. However, we expect US REITs to …
20th November 2020
More easing likely from central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines after rate cuts today We think that UK retail sales growth slowed prior to November’s lockdown (07.00 GMT) EZ consumer confidence probably fell this month (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes …
19th November 2020
US initial jobless claims probably continued their gradual decline last week (13.30 GMT) We think Turkey’s central bank will appease investors with a 450bp rate hike (11.00 GMT)… …but expect central banks in Indonesia and the Philippines to cut rates …
18th November 2020
