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High frequency data point to an upturn in UK retail sales volumes in February (07.00 GMT) We expect Germany’s IFO Business Climate Index to have risen in March (09.00 GMT) US real consumption likely to have fallen temporarily last month (12.30 GMT) Key …
25th March 2021
We are sticking to our view that the US stock market will gain a bit more ground this year and next, despite revising up our end-2021 and end-2022 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield. (See here .) We also generally expect developed market (DM) …
24th March 2021
Philippines’ central bank unlikely to cut rates despite economic weakness (08.00 GMT) We think that inflation in Brazil rose sharply earlier this month (12.00 GMT) Falling inflation in South Africa probably rules out a rate hike this week (13.00 GMT) Key …
We think that UK consumer price inflation nudged up in February (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone composite PMI likely to have declined slightly (09.00 GMT) Severe weather probably weighed on US durable goods orders last month (12.30 GMT) Key Market Themes It is a …
23rd March 2021
We think that the UK’s unemployment rate held roughly steady in January (07.00 GMT) Hungary’s central bank not likely to tighten, despite above-target inflation (13.00 GMT) Key Fed speakers will probably reiterate Powell’s dovish line Key Market Themes …
22nd March 2021
Unlike Brazil, Turkey & Russia, we think most other EM central banks will put off hiking We think flash PMIs in the UK and the euro-zone will point to activity remaining subdued The fall in US personal income & spending in Feb. will probably be reversed …
19th March 2021
The BoJ may tweak some of its policy settings, including its yield curve target tolerance band UK government borrowing is likely to have remained high in February (07.00 GMT) We expect Russia’s central bank to keep its policy rate on hold at 4.25% (10.30 …
18th March 2021
While the stock market fared much better than the economy in the US overall during the past ten years, we do not expect that to remain the case. A country’s stock market and its economy will grow at the same rate if there are no changes in the ratios of …
17th March 2021
Fed’s Powell likely to reiterate dovish message (18.00 GMT, Wed.) We expect Turkey’s central bank to hike its one week repo rate by 100bp (11.00 GMT, Thu.) BoE could emphasise dovish rates guidance, but not likely to up QE buying (12.00 GMT, Thu.) Key …
Headline inflation in Canada likely edged up in February (12.30 GMT) We think the Fed will reaffirm its intention to keep policy accommodative (18.00 GMT) We expect that Brazil’s central bank will start tightening policy with a 50 bp hike (21.00 GMT) Key …
16th March 2021
Severe weather probably weighed on US retail sales in February… (12.30 GMT) … but industrial production may have held up slightly better (13.15 GMT) Fed, BoJ and BoE meetings this week may shed more light on their thinking about rise in yields Key Market …
15th March 2021
We expect the Fed to reiterate that policy tightening is still far away (Wed.) Central banks in Brazil and Turkey look likely to hike their policy rates (Wed. & Thu.) US industrial production and retail sales growth probably weakened in February (Tue.) …
12th March 2021
Although we do not expect US bond yields to keep on climbing sharply, we nonetheless think that the recent “rotation” in the US stock market has further to run, given the upbeat prospects for the economy. As we have discussed previously (see here & here …
UK economy is likely to have contracted by 3% m/m in March (07.00 GMT) We think that euro-zone industrial production grew by 0.7% m/m in January (10.00 GMT) US consumer confidence probably rose in early March (15.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The ECB ’s …
11th March 2021
US House of Representatives set to give final approval to Biden’s stimulus package later today We think inflation in Brazil rose in February, pointing to a rate hike next week (12.00 GMT) The ECB’s policy meeting likely to focus on how it responds to …
10th March 2021
Too much inflation can spell trouble for equities if it results in tighter real monetary policy or slower growth. But while we expect inflation to pick up in the US, we do not expect either of those outcomes anytime soon. That is a key reason why we …
Risks to Brazil’s sovereign bond market building Bank of Canada likely to reiterate commitment to keep policy loose for a long time We think that consumer price inflation picked up in the US, but remained subdued in China Key Market Themes We doubt the …
9th March 2021
The US Senate is likely to pass President Biden’s $1.9 fiscal stimulus over the next few days We think credit growth in China softened, consistent with activity slowing later in 2021 (Sun.) The BoE and ECB will probably respond to higher yields with …
5th March 2021
In the US, this week’s slide in equities in the face of a renewed rise in real government bond yields might seem puzzling, given the rosy prospects for the economy. But the argument that the stock market should be indifferent to rising TIPS yields if they …
We expect US non-farm payrolls to have risen by 500,000 in February (13.30 GMT) China’s government to present budget as National People’s Congress kicks off Read our highest-conviction macroeconomic and financial market forecasts here Key Market Themes We …
4th March 2021
Virus restrictions probably weighed on euro-zone retail sales in January (10.00 GMT) We expect Malaysia’s central bank to cut its policy rate by 25bp (07.00 GMT) View our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
3rd March 2021
While equity markets came under pressure towards the end of the month, they generally weathered February’s roughly 30bp rise in the 10-year US TIPS yield quite well, with most major indices still rising slightly over the month as a whole. A more …
2nd March 2021
UK Budget likely to focus on further economic support, not tax hikes (12.30 GMT) US ISM services index probably edged up in February (15.00 GMT) We expect the central bank of Poland to cut its policy rate by 10bp, to 0.00% Key Market Themes While the …
The RBA may push back against expectations of policy tightening at its meeting (03.30 GMT) We think euro-zone inflation picked up in February (10.00 GMT) Canadian GDP probably continued to grow in December despite lockdowns (13.30 GMT) Key Market Themes …
1st March 2021
The US ISM Manufacturing Index probably remained strong in February (Mon.) The UK Budget is likely to focus on extending support rather than deficit reduction (Wed.) We think that US non-farm payrolls rose by 500,000 in February (Fri.) Key Market Themes …
26th February 2021
We doubt that Treasury yields will continue to climb rapidly. However, that would be another reason to expect the returns from US REITs to fall short of those from ordinary US equities over the next few years. US REITs appear to have so far largely …
25th February 2021
India’s economy was probably around 1% smaller than a year earlier in Q4 (12.00 GMT) We think that US personal income and spending surged in January (13.30 GMT) View our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes …
Although we forecast a further small rise in the 10-year Treasury yield this year, we doubt that this will upend the US stock market. Admittedly, higher Treasury yields increase the “risk-free” nominal rates at which future corporate earnings are …
We think the RBNZ will not cut rates tomorrow, and that its easing cycle is over (01.00 GMT) Inflation probably rose in Brazil and Mexico in the first half of February Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market …
23rd February 2021
Johnson to set out how COVID-19 restrictions in the UK will be eased (Mon.) South Africa’s government not likely to announce end of austerity in budget speech (Wed.) Biden could unveil further details of fiscal plans at State of the Union Address (Wed.) …
19th February 2021
Although we expect oil prices to rise a bit further this year, we doubt that we are in the early phase of a new “super cycle” in commodities. In fact, we project that the returns from commodities will lag those from US equities considerably over the next …
Retail sales in the UK probably edged down in January due to virus restrictions (07.00 GMT) Euro-zone flash PMIs likely to show manufacturing activity remains resilient… (09.00 GMT) …while flash PMIs in the US are likely to point to a strong recovery …
18th February 2021
We expect Bank Indonesia to cut its policy rate by a further 25bp… (07.20 GMT) …but the rally in the lira may convince Turkey’s central bank to stand pat (11.00 GMT) Euro-zone consumer confidence probably remained in the doldrums in February (15.00 GMT) …
17th February 2021
We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s and approaching its level at the outset of the 2000s – …
16th February 2021
Fed minutes likely to confirm that policy tightening remains some way off (19.00 GMT) We expect US retail sales to have risen by 1.2% m/m in January (13.30 GMT) We think UK headline inflation edged down to 0.5% in January (07.00 GMT) Key Market Themes The …
We expect euro-zone and UK February flash PMIs to show activity remains subdued… (Mon.) … while euro-zone GDP probably contracted in Q4 (Tue.) FOMC and ECB minutes will shed further light on policymakers’ views next week Key Market Themes Although central …
12th February 2021
The UK probably avoided a contraction in GDP in Q4 despite the lockdowns … (07.00 GMT) … while lockdowns likely deepened Poland’s contraction in GDP last quarter (09.00 GMT) We expect consumer confidence in the US edged up as virus cases receded (15.00 …
11th February 2021
Powell likely to emphasise the Fed is still a long way from withdrawing support We think that Mexico’s central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp, to 4.0% (Thu,19.00 GMT) Read our highest conviction macro forecasts, and their market implications here …
10th February 2021
We think US headline inflation edged up to 1.5% in January (13.30 GMT) We expect the Riksbank to keep its policy settings unchanged (08.30 GMT) Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The MSCI World …
9th February 2021
Progress on a US fiscal stimulus package is likely to be slowed by the impeachment trial We think that headline inflation in Brazil and Mexico rose last month Read our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes The …
8th February 2021
US headline inflation probably edged up from 1.4% to 1.5% in January (Wed.) We expect the central bank of Mexico to cut its policy rate by 25bp to 4.00% (Thu.) In contrast, we think the central bank of Russia will keep its policy rate at 4.25% (Fri.) Key …
5th February 2021
While we still expect US Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) overall to fare reasonably well over the next couple of years, we no longer anticipate that they will outperform the US stock market. US REITs have underperformed US equities as an asset class …
We expect the RBI to cut its policy rate in response to lower headline inflation (06.15 GMT) US employment probably changed little in January, but risks lie to the upside (13.30 GMT) We think the US trade deficit narrowed last month as exports recovered …
4th February 2021
We think both the Bank of England and the Czech National Bank will leave policy unchanged Euro-zone retail sales probably rose in December (10.00 GMT) You can check our highest conviction macro calls and their market implications here Key Market Themes A …
3rd February 2021
Extreme speculative movements in the prices of a handful of stocks and of silver have generated a lot of headlines over the past month. But those surges have not been reflected in the performance of risky assets more generally, many of which have taken a …
2nd February 2021
Euro-zone CPI inflation probably rose in January (10.00 GMT) We think virus-related restrictions weighed on US employment last month… (13.15 GMT) … but that the ISM services index will point to a continued recovery in activity (15.00 GMT) Key Market …
RBA likely to revise up its forecasts for GDP and inflation (03.30 GMT) We think euro-zone GDP fell by 1%q/q in the fourth quarter of 2020 (10.00 GMT) Track the latest developments on the pandemic, including vaccine progress, here Key Market Themes Indian …
1st February 2021
January PMIs are likely to point to a slow start to the year in the euro-zone … (Mon.) … while economies in the US, Canada, and the Nordics remained more resilient (Mon.) We expect US non-farm payrolls to show that the virus is still weighing on the …
29th January 2021
The French, Spanish, Austrian and Belgian economies probably all contracted in Q4… … however, we estimate that Germany’s economy grew by 0.5% q/q (07.00 GMT) We think US personal spending fell last month, but incomes probably picked up (13.30 GMT) Key …
28th January 2021
We expect the FOMC to reiterate its commitment to accommodative policy today Economic sentiment may have deteriorated in Europe in January (10:00 GMT) US GDP growth probably slowed in Q4 (13:30 GMT) Key Market Themes It seems very unlikely that the FOMC …
27th January 2021
